Govt realises that loads of people getting covid might actually be an issue

[noblegiraffe]

Sam Coates of Sky News is tweeting that Whitehall is getting concerned about the sheer number of people who will be having to isolate in the coming days, some from getting covid, and some from having to isolate.

"One source said gvt modelling done under Hancock suggested this scale cd potentially compromise transport and healthcare"

"One government source called this another lockdown by the back door"

twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1413224477450817536?s=21

Apparently the plan is to make the app less sensitive so that fewer people have to isolate.

Stopping isolations increases infections so not necessarily a great solution.

I'm sure all the planning is well in hand though.

I prefer people to catch it now myself. Better than in winter time. Less people will likely die, if they catch it now. I also prefer people catching it sooner rather than later in general too. Then perhaps there wont be need for a much longer drawn out catastrophe to the economy.

So I dont want a slower rate of infection. If it is going to happen, better to happen now, than further down the line.

@lightand

This is making the incorrect assumptions of the GBD - that you can only get it once, the mutation rate isn't an issue, and it will "burn itself out"

Not the case with coronavirus, which is why literally no-one is now advocating for increased transmission rather than suppression

I'm concerned about long covid too. I don't see how people can ignore it.

I think people ignore long covid because it's anyone struggling to recover fully after (I think) 4 weeks.

It also varies so much in symptoms and new that it seems all encompassing. I had Covid in late Feb 2020. When apparently only about 15 people in the country had it. I very much doubt that figure.

Anyway, I was ill for about 5 days. I was sick, very tired, coughing so much I would wet myself, chest rattling would wake me up when I could sleep. But I never felt I was struggling to breathe.

I also lost my sense of taste and smell. It didn't come back. Despite trying to keep up with my fitness during lockdown, I am breathless after about 15 mins walking. Its not normal breathlessness. Its a choking breathlessness.

And every 4-6 weeks it's like I have flu. Ache everywhere. I have no idea whether is post virus syndrome or long covid. Or if long covid is classed as a form of pvs.

But the doctor has given me all the paperwork and organised a chest scan for me as he said it would class it as long covid.

In January 2019 I was a fit 37 year old. Now I am 39 and my body feels like is aged about 20 years.

But I also get why people dismiss and don't really think long covid is a big deal.

Cumming's was right a supermarket trolley with dodgy wheels crashing from aisle to aisle. Once you realise that no one is in charge it all makes sense sadly. Fingers well crossed for we are in the Boris Bus once again where bank holidays for England football wins are more important than sweating the detail. If in doubt think Gavin Williamson and think is this some sort of bad dream. Except it's not.

@speckledostrichegg

I prefer people to catch it now myself. Better than in winter time. Less people will likely die, if they catch it now. I also prefer people catching it sooner rather than later in general too. Then perhaps there wont be need for a much longer drawn out catastrophe to the economy.

So I dont want a slower rate of infection. If it is going to happen, better to happen now, than further down the line.

@lightand

This is making the incorrect assumptions of the GBD - that you can only get it once, the mutation rate isn't an issue, and it will "burn itself out"

Not the case with coronavirus, which is why literally no-one is now advocating for increased transmission rather than suppression

I dont think it will burn itself it. I think it is here to stay for possibly centuries.

mutation rate - explain more please

Some people do get it more than once.

At times on here, it’s like people have been brainwashed

You don't know what brainwashed means, do you, TableFlowerss?

And goodness me your language one this thread is so extreme when describing the behaviour and opinions of others: house arrest/foaming at the mouth/ raging/hysterical/ they want everyone to stay in.

Arguments and ideas rather than purple prose go much further in the debate.

@SonnetForSpring

quite upsetting if they are actually that incompetent

sigh

[quote herecomesthsun]@SonnetForSpring

quite upsetting if they are actually that incompetent

sigh[/quote]
Why the sigh. I was understating my feelings a fair amount as the whole thing is quite ridiculous and exhausting. Anyway, they are back tracking now. So I still think they were just trying to make it look like they are really trying to lift restrictions but wont actually do it.

My FIL waited nearly 4 hours for an ambulance to see him with breathing difficulties in the night last week. Paramedics v apologetic but explained that it’s now ‘like a war zone again’. If restrictions for a while longer mean that people who need urgent medical care can get it, I’d happily live with that.

Sadly I think the summer is going to be a shitshow all over again. I really feel for all the children falling ill and isolating in the last few weeks of term and during their well earned break.

My mate is a paramedic. In our trust area they have suspended their meal breaks and forced overtime. The average wait outside the hospital here when you arrive in an ambulance is 4 hours. We are black alert. I'm scared of any of us becoming ill of seriously hurt. It's not especially covid either.

@nevernotstruggling

My mate is a paramedic. In our trust area they have suspended their meal breaks and forced overtime. The average wait outside the hospital here when you arrive in an ambulance is 4 hours. We are black alert. I'm scared of any of us becoming ill of seriously hurt. It's not especially covid either.

That’s my concern. I want healthcare available both for emergencies and standard things as they have been enough delays for some already.

I don’t care re freedom day, I’d rather have restrictions of that means our healthcare can cope.

I dont think it will burn itself it.
I think it is here to stay for possibly centuries.
mutation rate - explain more please
Some people do get it more than once.

@lightand but my post was in response to yours:
"I prefer people to catch it now myself. Better than in winter time. Less people will likely die, if they catch it now. I also prefer people catching it sooner rather than later in general too. Then perhaps there wont be need for a much longer drawn out catastrophe to the economy."
"So I dont want a slower rate of infection. If it is going to happen, better to happen now, than further down the line."

If you agree that people can get it more than once and it won't burn itself why are you advocating for increased transmission and infection?

mutation rate refers the speed at which the viral genome is gaining mutations (which leads to reduced immune efficacy) and is directly correlated to the amount of transmission in a population

My FIL waited nearly 4 hours for an ambulance to see him with breathing difficulties in the night last week. Paramedics v apologetic but explained that it’s now ‘like a war zone again’. If restrictions for a while longer mean that people who need urgent medical care can get it, I’d happily live with that

According to this article, the pressure on the NHS is in a large part due to the backlog of care created by restrictions and also due to the amount of staff having to self isolate. The restrictions themselves have hugely contributed to this mess. It will never be the right time to open when the health service is in such a shambles.

The point is it's not get it now or get it later - it could well be both. If you agree you can get it repeatedly then your assertion that it's better for everyone to get it in summer makes no sense. What we'd need would be a low level of transmission so services could cope throughout given new cases will come throughout the year as immunity ends etc.

Immunity seems pretty limited. We have a little outbreak here in my village amongst people who watched the football in the pub last Wednesday - multiple tested positive, some really quite poorly with it despite being double vaccinated and in two cases having had covid before as well.

How does your 'better to get it now than in winter' fit with this?

Worryingly the person who infected everyone was double jabbed too. This delta variant does seem to be getting round vaccines pretty effectively.

@TheHoneyBadger

Worryingly the person who infected everyone was double jabbed too. This delta variant does seem to be getting round vaccines pretty effectively.

Numbers out of Israel suggest only 64% efficacy for Pfizer so AstraZeneca might even be sub 50%.

People where I live are now being advised not to leave the city as we have higher levels now than at any time in the pandemic.

I have never had the app...I don't know anyone who has! Why on earth would you?

@FromEden

My FIL waited nearly 4 hours for an ambulance to see him with breathing difficulties in the night last week. Paramedics v apologetic but explained that it’s now ‘like a war zone again’. If restrictions for a while longer mean that people who need urgent medical care can get it, I’d happily live with that

According to this article, the pressure on the NHS is in a large part due to the backlog of care created by restrictions and also due to the amount of staff having to self isolate. The restrictions themselves have hugely contributed to this mess. It will never be the right time to open when the health service is in such a shambles.

Well, without staff isolating there would be staff off ill, and some staff off for longer - maybe much longer - as too unwell to work.

Without restrictions, people would be picking up covid more often when they come into hospital for something else.

They aren't good alternatives are they, if you think about it?

I'm watching what is happening in UK at the moment from Australia and trying to get my head around it. These are genuine questions, please forgive any ignorance:

• There aren't any restrictions at all in UK now, correct? Just looking at everyone packed in at Wimbledon, no masks, presumably same thing at Wembley, British GP, etc.
• Isn't that pretty much what happened in July/August last year, followed by huge increase in cases later? Is the assumption that that won't happen this time, or that it will happen but 'we've decided it's worth it because everyone has had enough of restrictions'?
• If the assumption is that it won't happen, is that because of the high vaccination rate?
• But then some of the predictions of case numbers I've heard are mind-boggling. Are those numbers just because there are still a lot of people to be vaccinated? Or because vaccinated people are still expected to catch it?
• Has pretty much everyone over the age of 18 who wants to be vaccinated, been vaccinated? That is, are all the unvaccinated like that due to choice (or medical necessity)?

Sorry, lots of questions. Like I said, I'm just trying to understand your reality, because it seems so different to our reality. Our vaccine rollout has been really slow and not well organised, but lockdowns, quarantines, travel restrictions, etc have been well enforced, and so on the whole the country has been spared the worst of the pandemic.

@jasjas1973

But the restrictions are still in place right now yet there’s still an increase in cases

Agree and prob why delta was invited in.

People have had enough. You just need to look at the football fans to see, social distancing is not happening anymore

Agree again, football is a huge super spreader and given that 50% have been db jabbed and the remainder think they aren't at particular risk, its no surprise.

People keep mentioning the football, but what about the tennis?

@CakeRattleandRoll

I'm watching what is happening in UK at the moment from Australia and trying to get my head around it. These are genuine questions, please forgive any ignorance:

• There aren't any restrictions at all in UK now, correct? Just looking at everyone packed in at Wimbledon, no masks, presumably same thing at Wembley, British GP, etc.
• Isn't that pretty much what happened in July/August last year, followed by huge increase in cases later? Is the assumption that that won't happen this time, or that it will happen but 'we've decided it's worth it because everyone has had enough of restrictions'?
• If the assumption is that it won't happen, is that because of the high vaccination rate?
• But then some of the predictions of case numbers I've heard are mind-boggling. Are those numbers just because there are still a lot of people to be vaccinated? Or because vaccinated people are still expected to catch it?
• Has pretty much everyone over the age of 18 who wants to be vaccinated, been vaccinated? That is, are all the unvaccinated like that due to choice (or medical necessity)?

Sorry, lots of questions. Like I said, I'm just trying to understand your reality, because it seems so different to our reality. Our vaccine rollout has been really slow and not well organised, but lockdowns, quarantines, travel restrictions, etc have been well enforced, and so on the whole the country has been spared the worst of the pandemic.

• there are restrictions right now - mandatory masks and on numbers of people who are able to gather in private residences and inside (but yes ridiculous when you at Wembley). SD still applied and things like clubs are still shut.
• yes it is, and I believe the current take of the government is that the predicted surge in cases can be dealt with.
• the high numbers are due to the impact of delta, the fact that we only have 50% double jabbed, and that the vaccines don't have perfect efficacy

-no they have not! I'm 31 and have had one vaccination, this is the case for lots of people in 30s/40s, and lots in their 20s have had no jabs

tldr: yes our reality is not good It's absolute madness and I have no idea what the government thinks it's doing. I'm just praying I don't need any kind of emergency healthcare in the summer because I think it's all going to go horribly wrong.

There aren't any restrictions at all in UK now, correct?

There are, around large gatherings and social distancing but for some reason they're not being applied to sporting events. They are due to be lifted (e.g. nightclubs re-opening, masks being made optional, social distancing being dropped) on July 19th.

Is the assumption that that won't happen this time, or that it will happen but 'we've decided it's worth it because everyone has had enough of restrictions'?

Cases are already shooting up because of the delta variant. They have decided that it's worth it because hospitalisations and deaths aren't increasing at the same rate (although they are increasing).

But then some of the predictions of case numbers I've heard are mind-boggling

Yep.

Has pretty much everyone over the age of 18 who wants to be vaccinated, been vaccinated?

No. Vaccinations have now been offered to the over 18s but obviously not everyone has managed to get an appointment yet and many people are still waiting on their second dose (one dose is not really effective against the delta variant). I know people over 40 who are still waiting for their second jab appointment so it's not just young people.

I think the reality is Cake that our pathetic excuse for a government has listened to their backers and thought, a few thousand more people will die, who gives a toss. And really, they are probably right. We have no effective oppostion and our government are as corrupt as they are incompetent.

The right wing media in this country will give Johnson a free pass, and another 100 odd thousand will unnecessarily die. And the goverment will walk away whistling. Again.

@CakeRattleandRoll I think a big part of the problem is that because the UK has mismanaged coronavirus so spectacularly, we've been under some kind of restrictions for the best part of 18 months. It's all reactive rather than proactive response.

This leads to lockdown fatigue and the government/public thinking we should open up despite the data saying otherwise.