Govt realises that loads of people getting covid might actually be an issue

[noblegiraffe]

Sam Coates of Sky News is tweeting that Whitehall is getting concerned about the sheer number of people who will be having to isolate in the coming days, some from getting covid, and some from having to isolate.

"One source said gvt modelling done under Hancock suggested this scale cd potentially compromise transport and healthcare"

"One government source called this another lockdown by the back door"

twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1413224477450817536?s=21

Apparently the plan is to make the app less sensitive so that fewer people have to isolate.

Stopping isolations increases infections so not necessarily a great solution.

I'm sure all the planning is well in hand though.

There's an article in the Telegraph predicting a surge in stocks and shares with Freedom Day.

I think it's posturing that will hugely appeal to Conservative Party backers.

If we run into trouble like the Netherlands and have to reverse measures then it will have the opposite effect though, very short sighted.

Obviously this is anecdotal evidence but I’ve been pinged twice and had it once x

We've also just got a new Health Secretary because the old one was caught breaking social distancing rules by snogging his aid in his office under the CCTV camera.

The new Health Secretary has decided to Make His Mark by throwing all restrictions out of the window and Get The Country Back To Normal.

He has since admitted that he doesn't know what the projected figures for hospitalisations are which is shocking given that the argument for continuing to remove restrictions is that hospitalisations will remain low.

He hasn't had time to get on top of the data and is just going with what he wants to do.

Consultant in AE in the midlands said that capacity is 95% or higher, without too much CV.
Staff are worn out and need a summer break but capacity is winter levels, so they wont get on.

He said vast majority admitted with CV are either not jabbed or single dose.

So whilst vaccines are working (in so much as they are keeping people out of hospital), the NHS cannot cope with the backlog let alone extra CV patients and whose fault is that?

What happens when, not if, the virus finds away around the vaccines?

Thank you for your answers. I can't get my head around the idea that any restrictions are in place while people are still PACKED IN at sporting events with NO MASKS! What is the point of having two such totally contradictory situations?? Is the reasoning that the sporting events are 'outside'? The Australian GP has just been cancelled because it was felt that it would be impossible to run it without unacceptable infection risk.

What are the views of general public about predicted surge in case numbers? Are people burying their head in the sand and enjoying the summer or are they generally just fairly sure everything will be OK? What are the arguments against the UK ending up like India a few months ago, or Indonesia at the moment? The high vaccination rate? Better healthcare system?

It feels like they were so busy going 'well cases rising doesn't matter so long as hospitalisations and deaths don't go up massively' that they forgot that people with covid can't go to work

Anyone with half a brain knew this was going to happen. The govt doesn't fall into that group though.

@noblegiraffe

He ain't called SavageJavid or Javid19 for nothing, a typical tory, who cares nothing for anyone who he considers is beneath him.

people are still PACKED IN at sporting events with NO MASKS!

Kids are also packed into secondary school classrooms with no masks, tbf, and have been since May. (They never wore masks in primary)

I don't think it's a coincidence that infection rates in kids are rising rapidly!

The only consolation there is that schools generally close for the summer by the 21st.

@CakeRattleandRoll

Thank you for your answers. I can't get my head around the idea that any restrictions are in place while people are still PACKED IN at sporting events with NO MASKS! What is the point of having two such totally contradictory situations?? Is the reasoning that the sporting events are 'outside'? The Australian GP has just been cancelled because it was felt that it would be impossible to run it without unacceptable infection risk.

What are the views of general public about predicted surge in case numbers? Are people burying their head in the sand and enjoying the summer or are they generally just fairly sure everything will be OK? What are the arguments against the UK ending up like India a few months ago, or Indonesia at the moment? The high vaccination rate? Better healthcare system?

This in spades, cake.

Wembley is packed, but if one kid in school gets it, the whole class is sent home. If you’re a contact of someone with it, you have to spend ten days home. Schools aren’t having sports days, or end of term parties, or ….

So our medical staff, shop workers, bus drivers, etc are all soon enough going to be sent home to isolate, because they’re not lifting that restriction til a month after they lift the others. It makes NO SENSE.

At this point, I’m not trying to not catch Covid, I’m trying to not catch a ten day isolation.

@CakeRattleandRoll

Thank you for your answers. I can't get my head around the idea that any restrictions are in place while people are still PACKED IN at sporting events with NO MASKS! What is the point of having two such totally contradictory situations?? Is the reasoning that the sporting events are 'outside'? The Australian GP has just been cancelled because it was felt that it would be impossible to run it without unacceptable infection risk.

What are the views of general public about predicted surge in case numbers? Are people burying their head in the sand and enjoying the summer or are they generally just fairly sure everything will be OK? What are the arguments against the UK ending up like India a few months ago, or Indonesia at the moment? The high vaccination rate? Better healthcare system?

yes I believe the argument is that because it's outside it's much lower risk

i would say most people in the UK are concerned about both sides - restrictions continuing and the impact on the economy/mental health aspects but equally the fact that we are sleepwalking into a disaster which may need another national lockdown to control

I wouldn't take opinions here as representative as people tend to go for the extremes

[quote speckledostrichegg]@CakeRattleandRoll I think a big part of the problem is that because the UK has mismanaged coronavirus so spectacularly, we've been under some kind of restrictions for the best part of 18 months. It's all reactive rather than proactive response.

This leads to lockdown fatigue and the government/public thinking we should open up despite the data saying otherwise.[/quote]
It's not just lockdown "fatigue". There are still 3 million self employed who've been denied meaningful support. Lots of industries are still badly affected by restrictions etc. Lots of people simply can't afford to continue being prevented from working and earning a living.

Basically in a once in a lifetime highly mutating contagious viral global pandemic - politics, popularism, civil liberties don’t cheat science. Science in its most raw and brutal form will always beat “Covidiotology.” Ultimately to save both lives and livelihoods - more long term sustainable middle ground needs to come to the fore not the repeated quasi lockdown to full free for all perpetual cycles. Vaccination assists but cannot cheat science forever as it mixes and mutates and becomes challenging to vaccinate against. I understand in medical history only small pox has been successfully eliminated by medical science. This is a long term living and dying with Covid issue and yes society should get back to some sort of new normal but why remove sensible risk mitigation measures unless there is a recognition that more of the less health privileged will perish before their time while others eg unvaccinated younger populations may eventually develop long term post Covid disabilities. Open up society and businesses if pandemic pragmatic but keep the basics of hands, face, space and test test test to let the healthy get back to it while the ill are treated as necessary away from infecting others.

@thecatsatonthewall

Consultant in AE in the midlands said that capacity is 95% or higher, without too much CV. Staff are worn out and need a summer break but capacity is winter levels, so they wont get on.

He said vast majority admitted with CV are either not jabbed or single dose.

So whilst vaccines are working (in so much as they are keeping people out of hospital), the NHS cannot cope with the backlog let alone extra CV patients and whose fault is that?

What happens when, not if, the virus finds away around the vaccines?

What happens when, not if, the virus finds away around the vaccines?

We live with it. The country can't afford more lockdowns. There are already 3 million self employed who've had no meaningful support who've spent their savings, sold their homes, closed their businesses, etc., who now aren't paying tax. The country can't afford to keep paying furlough to people to sit at home. Public transport, NHS and other public sector organisations can't afford to keep paying people to sit at home isolating when they're pinged.

It's not just lockdown "fatigue". There are still 3 million self employed who've been denied meaningful support. Lots of industries are still badly affected by restrictions etc. Lots of people simply can't afford to continue being prevented from working and earning a living

Economies don't prosper if people are scared to spend because of a virus.
If 3m didn't get support, whose fault is that? the govt had plenty of money to pour down the drain on TnT, which they now appear to want to get rid of

@ResIpsaLoquiturInterAlia

Basically in a once in a lifetime highly mutating contagious viral global pandemic - politics, popularism, civil liberties don’t cheat science. Science in its most raw and brutal form will always beat “Covidiotology.” Ultimately to save both lives and livelihoods - more long term sustainable middle ground needs to come to the fore not the repeated quasi lockdown to full free for all perpetual cycles. Vaccination assists but cannot cheat science forever as it mixes and mutates and becomes challenging to vaccinate against. I understand in medical history only small pox has been successfully eliminated by medical science. This is a long term living and dying with Covid issue and yes society should get back to some sort of new normal but why remove sensible risk mitigation measures unless there is a recognition that more of the less health privileged will perish before their time while others eg unvaccinated younger populations may eventually develop long term post Covid disabilities. Open up society and businesses if pandemic pragmatic but keep the basics of hands, face, space and test test test to let the healthy get back to it while the ill are treated as necessary away from infecting others.

Nothing to stop people doing hands, face and space. You don't need legislation for that, and even when legislated, lots of people ignored it anyway.

The only restrictions that have caused significant reductions in infection rates has been lockdowns, proper lockdowns, i.e. pubs/restaurants closed, socialising banned, non essential shops closed, etc. That's not sustainable for more than a month or two.

As usual, the figures are a bit misleading. Public Health England have confirmed that 4 out of 10 people in hospital ‘with Covid’ were actually admitted for something else and happened to test positive following the usual protocol. For a stupid reason, this 40% are still classed as admissions. We all automatically assume that anyone listed as a ‘Covid admission’ must be seriously ill.
Also, PHE's figures also show that of the Indian variant patients who presented at A&E by June 21, just over three in 10 spent the night in hospital, with the rest sent home on the same day.......
The media just love to wind it up and cause confusion.

@Kazzyhoward

You can't live with a virus that is killing or hospitalising 100s of 1000s of people.... look at Brazil?

Cv is is like nothing else we have faced before.

I do know of a lot of people in isolation, sorry not isolation this week.

Compliance has left the building so I’m not quite sure even a lockdown via the back door is actually happening currently.

Lots of people simply can't afford to continue being prevented from working and earning a living

They’ll struggle if people are too nervous to visits bars or shops. How will people earn a living if everyone is sick?

It's not just lockdown "fatigue". There are still 3 million self employed who've been denied meaningful support. Lots of industries are still badly affected by restrictions etc. Lots of people simply can't afford to continue being prevented from working and earning a living.

@Kazzyhoward
you seem to be trying to pick a fight here. I was simply pointing out that because restrictions have been ongoing for 18 months (as opposed to short periods in other countries followed by full reopening), this had let to a situation where we need to drop restrictions despite the data demonstrating it will be an extremely bad idea - and likely to lead to another national lockdown.

All the studies so far show that the economies that prospered were those where they controlled the virus to low levels (S Korea, Taiwan, etc).

I've been going out spending, but I'm not going in a shop where most people are maskless and I'll be stopping spending on the 19th.

What lockdown fatigue?

70% of people want to continue current measures.

(if they don't U-turn of course)

Even I, an ignorant pleb, was saying 6 weeks ago that even if fewer people had serious illness or died, surely the sheer amount of people isolating and/or ill was going to be massive a logistical issue.

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

What lockdown fatigue?

70% of people want to continue current measures.

Thing is the "current measures" aren't working, given that we have exponential growth in infection rates. Whether or not masks/SD is scrapped in a weeks' time, we're going to see 100k per day infection rates. The only way to bring infection numbers down quickly enough is go back to lockdown. Is that what people want?