Austalian state likely can't contain Delta, will let it rip

[starfro]

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/nsw-delta-variant-may-never-be-controlled/100273956

Be thankful that here most vulnerable people are double jabbed, whereas over there it's far, far fewer.

Delta cannot be contained, it's too transmissible.

Given that 9% of Australians have had the vaccine to date.
That it won’t be available for the under 40s until September at the earliest.
That the majority of Australians are under 40.
And that 26% of Australian adults say they won’t ever get the vaccine anyway...

...they’re in a tricky situation.

The 26% is vaccine hesitant not won't ever get it, unless you've seen something different from me, and the reasons given are more around not seeing the rush or the need at this stage, wanting to see more people have it, only 5% of the 26% are hard core anti vaxxers. There's been a big spike in people wanting it now there is concern over the outbreak in Sydney. If the Pfizer stock comes in as expected, in October there's a belief we can get it rolled out by end of year to all eligible adults (not that I trust the fed government on that one).

I live in WA, and everyone I know has either had their first or second vaccine, or is waiting to get it! The problem is lack of supply at the minute, not lack of will. And apart from NSW who had 38 new cases today, the rest of the country is doing pretty well. I don't think we are in a tricky position at all. There are vaccine refusers in every country, and I think a lot of people who are reluctant will change their minds when they realise they won't be able to get on a plane etc. The PM has already said we will re-open the borders when everyone who wants a vaccine has had the opportunity to get one.

Haven't read every single post, but I guess you could say that Jersey is now 'letting it rip' now too.

Except our vaccination rate is (a bit) higher than the UK's with at least 61% of the eligible population now double jabbed (and it'll be more than that now, but we only get the figures updated on Sundays and Thursdays, and they haven't released today's yet) and almost all over-18s at least single jabbed.

We ditched mandatory masks over a month ago, we've had schools open all the academic year (other than a few days of closure before/after Christmas) and shops, close-contact services and indoor/outdoor hospitality have all been open as normal since the end of February/beginning of March, and the numbers at weddings/funerals haven't been capped for a few weeks now. The only things still not fully back are nightclubs and standing at the bar to have a drink. We had over 10,000 tourists in the island over May half term - which is obviously what has driven Delta to take hold here.

And yes, Delta has 'ripped through' Jersey in ways not seen before at any point in the pandemic, other than at the start and the autumn spike. But daily cases don't tell the whole story. The last time cases were this high we had about 25 people in hosptial, many needing ICU, and deaths did result (around 35 or so in the second spike). Now cases are high, but there are only 2 people in hospital, no one in ICU (as of yesterday) and of the 4 people in total who've been in hosptial this time round, 2 were discharged after a couple of days. And no extra deaths have occured.

These are the figures that States of Jersey are using to make their decisions. Cases are high, but they are over 90% in schools or people with only 1 jab so far. A friend of mine is one of the unlucky up to 10% who is double jabbed, but still got Covid (she works in a school and was picked up in their weekly LF testing) so she has to isolate even though she said the only symptom is feeling like she's got a bit of a cold (and she had Covid for real in the first wave last Spring, was quite unwell back then, so has something to compare the symptoms to!)

My friend lives in Wellington, NZ, and she says there is lots of unrest building now. She realises that the 'zero Covid' strategy that was certainly a good policy 12 months ago, is no longer of any help. Tourism is their major money maker, and far from the positive reports of their economy 'booming', it's actually not in a real sense enough to keep them going for much longer. This has been made worse now that travel to Australia has been suspended. Grumblings against Jacinda's policies now are getting louder. My friend looks at Jersey and wonders why NZ can't be similar. NZ's vaccination policy is a mess, supplies (as of last week) were down to just over 20,000 doses left because no more had arrived, and even their vulnerable and over 70s haven't been prioritised for vaccination. Border staff and their families were first, then some medical staff. My friend got her first jab after hearing 'on the grapevine' that there might be spares going at a centre if she just turned up and waited, and she was lucky. They've closed that loophole now, because supplies are so low, so she's the only one in her family who's had the vaccine. It's a mess, and she's getting more and more upset she won't get back to the UK (her dad's very poorly) if the worst happens.

Yes, my friend was shocked Jersey didn't go 'full New Zealand' in March last year and pursue elimination (Guernsey chose that) but we did shut our borders enough to give us a 3 month break into last summer which was the main thing that started the road to where we are now with cases high, but the threat relatively low.

The data means that we have done away with any isolation at all for direct contacts at nursery or primary school, or for any adult as long as they return a Day 0 negative test (and also have tests on Days 5 or 8, and Day 10). Secondary students have been treated slightly more conseratively - direct contacts have to isolate for 5 days now, but can stop if they return a negative Day 5 test. From September, they will be brought into line with nursery and primary students with only a Day 0 test needed, along with LTFs at school.

Anyone who refuses the triple test option still has to isolate for 14 days, and anyone who develops symptoms must also isolate. But they are the only two reasons anyone has to isolate now, and it's stopped the farce of perfectly healthy groups of people having to stay at home and allowed life these last couple of weeks to go more or less back to normal.

Mangaged suppression along with mass vaccination is the only way out of this, and even Australia and NZ will have to join in on that if they want to rejoin the global community into the next few years.

Thanks for the perspective from Jersey. Jersey seems to have done a good job of managing the pandemic, especially in terms of clear public messaging.

@DetMcNulty

I live in WA and there absolutely is impetus, there's just no supply at the moment. We're a resource heavy state, and the oil and gas and mining companies will almost definitely be mandating vaccination before you can go to sites which will significantly impact take up. My company has already banned any international business travel without a vaccine, and HSE are looking at what can be done about domestic travel and site travel.

Interesting. I am speaking about intelligent people in their 60s in WA who so far have not taken it up when they had the chance.....

@ILikeMyName - your friend in Wellington is only giving you their version of the truth. It may be true that in Wellington there is a lot of unrest building, but I am seeing very little in my part of NZ. The majority of people I talk to are very happy with the way the pandemic has been dealt with, and continues to be dealt with.

The fact that the vaccines almost ran out does not make NZ's vaccination policy "a mess". Obviously your friend "forgot" to mention that we get a shipment every week, and we also know that the majority of the vaccines are to start arriving later in July, and that is still on schedule.

As for the loophole being closed for people to receive spare vaccines because we were running out - well I saw a Facebook post from a medical centre in my region at the weekend asking people to give them their phone numbers so they could use spare vaccines.

Wellington no more represents the whole of NZ than London does England.

Gladys never said NSW won't go into lockdown, she just didn't jump to it at the first case.

NSW have managed many an escaped case (almost always from hotel quarantine) without sending the state into lockdown and damaging the economy, small businesses and zero contract workers.

She tried and admittedly failed this time because the delta variant has proved to be so much more transmissible.

She does have a reputation for being anti lockdown but the goalposts have moved with delta.

I can't fault her, obviously in this instance it's possible earlier lockdown may have contained it but you know, hindsight.

They have identified where the gaps are, large families and cultural differences and are working hard to communicate directly in these areas.

The restrictions won't be blanket, they will be focused on specific areas and suburbs.

The vaccine rollout has been a bit of a fail, that's Scotty, but they are working hard to remedy that.

The narrative is changing fast here, it's moving to vaccinate as many as we can and we won't be doing lockdowns any more.

Having watched the uk (my whole family are there) my worry is kids and schools. It seems like yes the vulnerable and elderly are protected but the young and children are collateral damage.

What matters to me is my sons education, I can't think of anything more of a failing than schools closing and kids having to be 'taught' by their parents who are also working full time.

I expect they will continue with a zero Covid approach until kids can be vaccinated, this will just be an easier task with a vaccinated population. I don't see the government throwing our kids to the wolves like that.

@beingsunny

Gladys never said NSW won't go into lockdown, she just didn't jump to it at the first case.

NSW have managed many an escaped case (almost always from hotel quarantine) without sending the state into lockdown and damaging the economy, small businesses and zero contract workers.

She tried and admittedly failed this time because the delta variant has proved to be so much more transmissible.

She does have a reputation for being anti lockdown but the goalposts have moved with delta.

I can't fault her, obviously in this instance it's possible earlier lockdown may have contained it but you know, hindsight.

They have identified where the gaps are, large families and cultural differences and are working hard to communicate directly in these areas.

The restrictions won't be blanket, they will be focused on specific areas and suburbs.

The vaccine rollout has been a bit of a fail, that's Scotty, but they are working hard to remedy that.

The narrative is changing fast here, it's moving to vaccinate as many as we can and we won't be doing lockdowns any more.

Having watched the uk (my whole family are there) my worry is kids and schools. It seems like yes the vulnerable and elderly are protected but the young and children are collateral damage.

What matters to me is my sons education, I can't think of anything more of a failing than schools closing and kids having to be 'taught' by their parents who are also working full time.

I expect they will continue with a zero Covid approach until kids can be vaccinated, this will just be an easier task with a vaccinated population. I don't see the government throwing our kids to the wolves like that.

Do you mean all children or just 12 plus?

@MarshaBradyo sorry I mean 12 plus, I don't think it's been approved anywhere for under 12 at this time, though happy to be corrected.

I have an 8yo son so am aware of the consequences for his primary.

I guess it's about reducing the number of triggers for isolation, even if we can't vaccinate the under 12s the other children are a big group, it's really just about doing what we can, reduce the risk and at some point with adults all protected it becomes just another illness.

[quote beingsunny]@MarshaBradyo sorry I mean 12 plus, I don't think it's been approved anywhere for under 12 at this time, though happy to be corrected.

I have an 8yo son so am aware of the consequences for his primary.

I guess it's about reducing the number of triggers for isolation, even if we can't vaccinate the under 12s the other children are a big group, it's really just about doing what we can, reduce the risk and at some point with adults all protected it becomes just another illness.[/quote]
Yes there’s no doubt high vaccination is a good place to start.

We’re getting there but it’s been a tougher road no doubt!

We’re waiting on safety data for 12 plus, I’m sure it’ll be known soon and I imagine Aus will do same and then use it if passes what you need it to.

I also have to say that after such a long time in a state of pandemic, it will take time (though probably not as long as we think) to adjust the mindset of people.

The talk of no longer reporting daily case numbers over there I think is a great idea, it's helping to shift the focus, it's no longer (with a well vaccinated population) the risk to life it was 12/18 months ago. The reporting should begin to reflect that.

We are lucky to be in the position we have been in Oz but it's also created complacency, and I will admit I was also in that camp of oh well let's see how the vaccines affect people, no rush to take it.

That's changing fast over here, the delta has been a game changer.

The health minister even suggested we may have to abandon zero Covid as it's too hard to contain though I think that was more political and said to get people used to the thought of a future with Covid.

DetMcNulty I got the 26% figure from the Australian correspondent on Times Radio. Ditto that only 9% of adults have had the vaccine so far (don’t know if that’s those double vaccinated or includes people who’ve just had one).
I only recall because it shocked DH and I so much.

26% have had 1 vaccine
8% double vaccinated

@HelloMissus that 9% is fully vaccinated. It’s about 30% with one jab a week or so ago and they are vaccinating about 140,000 per day so it’s slowly creeping up.

Thanks for the clarification.
And hopefully the poster up thread is right about the 26% who currently say they won’t get it - they’ll change their minds when push comes to shove. Or enough will.

The vaccine rollout has been a bit of a fail, that's Scotty, but they are working hard to remedy that

To be fair though - and I’m no fan - one of the major hurdles is that Pfizer is much more sought after than AZ, and the federal government put all of its eggs in the AZ basket. Where I live in QLD people there were people in vaccination centres bemoaning how people weren’t coming to vaccination centres because they didn’t want the AZ.

Not sure if this will work, but here's the breakdown of the 26% who were vaccine hesitant.

Thing is, even if people decide not to have the jab, that’s their concern. As long as people have been offered it, we can start to open up. People know the risks by now and if a few hippies in Byron want to risk their grandparents lives (as well as their kids from their standard refusal to have the normal childhood vaccines) then that’s really nothing to do with the rest of us.

I agree Ozgirl, with the caveat that the remote indigenous communities must be protected, and any hesitancy and distrust of government is completely understandable. There are good programmes in place though to try and ensure that this is overcome, with a focus on the elders being the main focus and communicators of this which have been showing some good results, hopefully this continues.

Yes, totally agree about that.

I've been reading Sydney Morning herald and Gladys (as everyone seems to call her ) has suggested 80% adult jabbed before opening. I am not sure if that is single or double jabbed - I assume single? This does not include under 18's of course so 80% jabbed is like 60% whole population approx?
She is getting some push back - but she's probably about right and it seems brave of her to stick her neck out when many are still stuck in lockdown mode. She is definately showing some leadership in changing the conversation and moving it on from 2020. The other state leaders should take note and at least think about following her example with their own populations.
She might be wrong about the 80% but it starts the discussion and you can follow the UK to help with your own desired level of vaccination.
We have already had that discussion here - reported today that 90% of adult population have antibodies from either vaccine or natural immunity.
Maybe a date needs to be picked when the country will reopen- say April 2022 - and that might encourage the population to take the vaccine too with a deadline in sight.
I read another Aussie commentator say that the UK/ Europe/ US culturally accepts cases whereas Australia and New Zealand do not. I thought that was insightful and very true.

I'd like to ban the phrase 'let it rip', along with 'non-essntial', 'stay safe', 'selfish', and 'the virus doesn't care about...'

And several other trite expressions that I can't think of at the moment

Can we please also ban "I'm alright Jack". I want to punch my screen every time I see it.

@sashagabadon

I've been reading Sydney Morning herald and Gladys (as everyone seems to call her ) has suggested 80% adult jabbed before opening. I am not sure if that is single or double jabbed - I assume single? This does not include under 18's of course so 80% jabbed is like 60% whole population approx? She is getting some push back - but she's probably about right and it seems brave of her to stick her neck out when many are still stuck in lockdown mode. She is definately showing some leadership in changing the conversation and moving it on from 2020. The other state leaders should take note and at least think about following her example with their own populations. She might be wrong about the 80% but it starts the discussion and you can follow the UK to help with your own desired level of vaccination. We have already had that discussion here - reported today that 90% of adult population have antibodies from either vaccine or natural immunity. Maybe a date needs to be picked when the country will reopen- say April 2022 - and that might encourage the population to take the vaccine too with a deadline in sight. I read another Aussie commentator say that the UK/ Europe/ US culturally accepts cases whereas Australia and New Zealand do not. I thought that was insightful and very true.

I admire her greatly. It’s not easy to go against the herd. I’m sure she means 80% double vaccinated.

The other premiers have been saying similar, no more lockdowns once everyone's been offered it, we won't lockdown to protect those who won't protect themselves so I don't think she's saying much different.