Austalian state likely can't contain Delta, will let it rip

[starfro]

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/nsw-delta-variant-may-never-be-controlled/100273956

Be thankful that here most vulnerable people are double jabbed, whereas over there it's far, far fewer.

Delta cannot be contained, it's too transmissible.

Vaccinate!! Fast!!

I’m part of a dog walking group and they’ve told everyone that they will need to wear a mask to go on a dog walk outside. It’s not even in the state regulations to wear masks outside at the moment!

I won’t be attending if I have to wear a mask outside. Dog walking for me is to get some fresh air. Not possible in a mask.

I’ve considered getting a mask exemption from my GP (I am on medication for an anxiety) but I’m okay with wearing masks in some situations such as airports (not that I’m travelling anywhere anytime soon), supermarkets and public transport.

If only they'd already had a wave of infections significant enough to need lockdowns, like we did, then they'd have a good level of natural immunity like the UK has and they could... avoid an exit wave of infections significant enough to need lockdowns. I bet they must be kicking themselves!

God yes, the whole world is kicking themselves that they didn't cause the unnecessary deaths of over 150,000 of their citizens, like the UK - or worse numbers in countries with similarly cavalier governments.

The only reason there is an 'exit wave' in the UK is the massive unchecked spread of Delta in the UK, with insufficient numbers of fully vaccinated people.

Australia and NZ will carefully open up when they have reached a percentage of fully vaccinated people that is circa 80% or upwards.

QLD has found a genomic link between their new cluster and a case from hotel quarantine.

As I understand, HK and Macao have increased quarantine periods from some countries to 3 or even 4 weeks because there appear to be some people who continue to be infectious for nearly a month. It is inevitable that cases will break out from quarantine even with very restrictive policies.

@IndigoC

QLD has found a genomic link between their new cluster and a case from hotel quarantine. So much for halving the quarantine quota solving their problem. They can’t contain Delta. Queensland CMO saying infected people are capable of transmitting the virus within 30 hours of exposure.

They’re either going to have to stop all new arrivals or accept a suppression strategy IMO.

We've had a Delta outbreak innQLD before and we did eliminate it with a previous lockdown of a few days length.

We'll have to see this time what the true case numbers are as they're not sure of the chain connecting the travellers to the locals.

I'm happy with the state government's strategy here of hard and fast lockdown when there's any community transmission. I think the problem in NSW is that community transmission was allowed to go on for too long and now it's going to take ages to get on top of it.

Everyone I know up here would rather do 4 days hard lockdown for a handful of cases than let it go and end up in lockdown for weeks!

I think the problem in NSW is that community transmission was allowed to go on for too long and now it's going to take ages to get on top of it

So many Victorians are ropeable about the initial "lockdown" in NSW, and it's possible long term consequences. For everyone.

@milkyaqua

If only they'd already had a wave of infections significant enough to need lockdowns, like we did, then they'd have a good level of natural immunity like the UK has and they could... avoid an exit wave of infections significant enough to need lockdowns. I bet they must be kicking themselves!

God yes, the whole world is kicking themselves that they didn't cause the unnecessary deaths of over 150,000 of their citizens, like the UK - or worse numbers in countries with similarly cavalier governments.

The only reason there is an 'exit wave' in the UK is the massive unchecked spread of Delta in the UK, with insufficient numbers of fully vaccinated people.

Australia and NZ will carefully open up when they have reached a percentage of fully vaccinated people that is circa 80% or upwards.

80% won't be anything like enough. When restrictions were released in the U.K. it was estimated that over 90% of the population had antibodies to the virus.

If you've read my other posts you'll see that my point is that if there is a general expectation that once a certain number of people are vaccinated it will be possible to open up with no, or very few, cases then there needs to be a shift in messaging. A significant exit wave is likely if not inevitable.

Opening up will be gradual, and not what you're imagining. But do continue to ill-wish countries doing better than the UK if it makes you feel better.

@milkyaqua

Opening up will be gradual, and not what you're imagining. But do continue to ill-wish countries doing better than the UK if it makes you feel better.

You obviously haven't actually read any of my posts so there's not really any point engaging any further with you.

Just seen photos of Bondi full of people. They have shut down the cocktail popup bars otherwise it looks like business as usual. Real estate inspections still open apparEntly.

If you’re seeing photos, presumably they’re outside? Where the risk of passing on the virus is minute and there are no restrictions anyway?
I know some Victorians would love us to all be heaping on the misery and hiding away inside our houses but we’re perfectly ok to go for a nice walk in the sunshine. We’ve been out for lots of the day here - exercise session with my PT in the park, kids out on bike rides and then all for a nice walk. All perfectly pleasant and perfectly allowed.

@milkyaqua

If only they'd already had a wave of infections significant enough to need lockdowns, like we did, then they'd have a good level of natural immunity like the UK has and they could... avoid an exit wave of infections significant enough to need lockdowns. I bet they must be kicking themselves!

God yes, the whole world is kicking themselves that they didn't cause the unnecessary deaths of over 150,000 of their citizens, like the UK - or worse numbers in countries with similarly cavalier governments.

The only reason there is an 'exit wave' in the UK is the massive unchecked spread of Delta in the UK, with insufficient numbers of fully vaccinated people.

Australia and NZ will carefully open up when they have reached a percentage of fully vaccinated people that is circa 80% or upwards.

Aus+NZ will have massive exit waves, even if 100% vaccinated.

But with massively reduced rates of hospitalisation, serious illness, long COVID and death. Worth waiting for, in my opinion.

I remember at the beginning of the pandemic my workplace told us to expect up to a third of us to be off work at any time sick. That never happened obviously but I do wonder if that might be the reality eventually once restrictions and lockdowns are ended.

I’m vaccinated but realise that I’ll likely still catch Covid at some stage. Good thing I’ve got lots of sick leave saved!

@callinda

But with massively reduced rates of hospitalisation, serious illness, long COVID and death. Worth waiting for, in my opinion.

Yep.

However, there seems to be this idea floating around that you vaccinate 80% and avoid an exit wave. True for the original variant, not so for Delta.

Will Australians tolerate this? Just like the UK you'll see cases rapidly rise, the public will get scared, politicians may re-introduce restrictions. And the UK public are a lot less scared of the virus than Aussies.

@milkyaqua

If only they'd already had a wave of infections significant enough to need lockdowns, like we did, then they'd have a good level of natural immunity like the UK has and they could... avoid an exit wave of infections significant enough to need lockdowns. I bet they must be kicking themselves!

God yes, the whole world is kicking themselves that they didn't cause the unnecessary deaths of over 150,000 of their citizens, like the UK - or worse numbers in countries with similarly cavalier governments.

The only reason there is an 'exit wave' in the UK is the massive unchecked spread of Delta in the UK, with insufficient numbers of fully vaccinated people.

Australia and NZ will carefully open up when they have reached a percentage of fully vaccinated people that is circa 80% or upwards.

This sort of comment is very ignorant imo. U.K. has 95% double vaccination in it’s 9 most at risk groups. Almost 90% single jabbed in all adults and over 70% double jabbed all adults and we still have cases and an exit wave plus we might get another wave in the autumn. Australia are talking about opening at 80% double jabbed in the total population. That is a very very very high percentage and not really achievable so pressure will eventually mount to open at lower rates by Business/ travel / politicians etc ( just like here, when the public opinion swings it swings quickly)

It’s also insufficient. The modelling I’ve seen is that delta needs 97-98% immunity to prevent spread. Only achievable with vaccines alone if you vaccinate toddlers and have near universal uptake. Unlikely!

This sort of comment is very ignorant imo.

That's cool. I view comments insisting Aus and NZ will inevitably suffer from an 'exit wave', as if any of our lockdowns bear any similarity to the situation in the UK, as very ignorant, also.

Time, I guess, will tell. But the amount of negative focus Antipodean countries who have chosen suppression over a general free-for-all - kindly cooking up new variants for the world to deal with - is really odd.

The same arguments are made over and over. Exit waves! Natural immunity! They can't keep their borders closed forever, etc etc.

To imagine you know what policies other countries will pursue in the future is also pretty odd.

There’s so many bad faith actors out there too, other countries whose mission is to spread disinformation and fear etc. No doubt they’ll be setting their sights on Australia to try and disrupt and cause confusion to throw the roll out off as much as possible.
It was tried in the U.K. too but a speedy roll out fast off the blocks reduced it’s effectiveness thank goodness.
Hopefully as more people get vaccinated more become happy to do so.
Politicians hopefully realise that the roll out is not just a race against the virus itself but also a race against the misinformation targeting the people ( some deliberate bad faith, some innocent good faith but effect is the same)
Depressing but that’s the world we live in unfortunately.

The PM has said that lockdown will be based on hospitalisation figures once 70% are fully vaccinated . And at 80% fully vaccinated international travel will begin to open up.

I think most people will be happy to keep the borders closed until this is done, especially if we aren't in lockdown .

I think earlier in the piece there was a hope that we could avoid most people catching the virus at all by vaccinating. But we do have newspapers and pay attention to what's happening internationally here, so it's now becoming clear that double vaxxed people can still catch it. We had an air hostess in thus position in QLD recently. She didn't transmit it to anyone though I don't think, and as I understand it vaccination helps to lower viral load and transmissibility. As I say, I believe vaccine uptake will be high once people feel the urgency. Perhaps by that time it will be approved for over 12's and if so it will likely be required for high school .

Some people are determined to wish doom on us, but I feel more positive.

It is still being debated but my personal view is that the vaccines do reduce transmission as well as symptoms. I spent week before last week living with my positive dh ( caught watching the football and probably delta)
Did I or the children catch it from him? No we didn’t and we did daily lft’s to check.
Anecdotal of course but I have colleague in similar scenario. Hopefully more studies will come out.

@callinda

The PM has said that lockdown will be based on hospitalisation figures once 70% are fully vaccinated . And at 80% fully vaccinated international travel will begin to open up.

I think most people will be happy to keep the borders closed until this is done, especially if we aren't in lockdown .

I think earlier in the piece there was a hope that we could avoid most people catching the virus at all by vaccinating. But we do have newspapers and pay attention to what's happening internationally here, so it's now becoming clear that double vaxxed people can still catch it. We had an air hostess in thus position in QLD recently. She didn't transmit it to anyone though I don't think, and as I understand it vaccination helps to lower viral load and transmissibility. As I say, I believe vaccine uptake will be high once people feel the urgency. Perhaps by that time it will be approved for over 12's and if so it will likely be required for high school .

Some people are determined to wish doom on us, but I feel more positive.

I don't wish doom on anyone, I've lived in Sydney, I'm very fond of Australia.

I can see that a zero covid strategy was a sensible approach for NZ and Aus (it was not achievable in the U.K. for lots of reasons so on balance I think it was right not to pursue it but that doesn't mean I think the U.K. haven't made plenty of mistakes).

It's just an observation that in zero covid countries a significant exit wave is more likely, even with very high levels of vaccination and so people need to start to prepare for that. That's not a criticism of having followed a zero covid approach in the first place.

We might need to, globally, move away from the idea that every single covid related death could have been avoided if only people had followed a zero covid strategy everywhere/followed rules more closely/locked down earlier/locked down harder/closed borders earlier/quarantined more effectively etc etc. It seems likely to me that a certain number of deaths are probably unavoidable whatever strategy is pursued.

Hopefully the vaccines will reduce those numbers significantly for NZ and Aus but I can see that things will seem worse on the ground post vaccination than pre vaccination for a good while and that might be hard to manage psychologically.

I don't think anyone ever thought that we could avoid every single COVID death. We've had 7 deaths in QLD already. The aim was always to reduce the number of deaths as much as possible.

The benefit we had in Australia was that we were behind at the start in terms of infection rates. It could easily have been the other way round. We have lots of travel with Asia. It could have been the UK looking at Aus and working out what not to do. It was just luck. And the problem is that for lockdown to work you have to go hard and fast BEFORE it looks like it's necessary. In Aus we were able to get the public and political will to do that because there were bloody terrifying newsreels of people collapsing on the street in China and Italian hospitals overrun. Also certain practical advantages in terms of geography.

But In the UK the lockdown was too little too late. On the other side, people have been very motivated to get cmvaccinated quickly there and there has been a great publicity campaign.

Not so here. People have been slow and complacent about vaccination. and government as well. We need a big campaign, celebs getting the jag, mobile units etc.

When the dust settles I hope all countries will be able to learn from one another without bitterness and recriminations, so that the world as a whole can be better prepared for NEXT time. Which there will be, sooner or later.

We have such poor leadership in our Federal government that there is no decent conversation about our actual strategy. Just one page roadmaps and vague promises about Christmas.

@sashagabadon

There’s so many bad faith actors out there too, other countries whose mission is to spread disinformation and fear etc. No doubt they’ll be setting their sights on Australia to try and disrupt and cause confusion to throw the roll out off as much as possible. It was tried in the U.K. too but a speedy roll out fast off the blocks reduced it’s effectiveness thank goodness. Hopefully as more people get vaccinated more become happy to do so. Politicians hopefully realise that the roll out is not just a race against the virus itself but also a race against the misinformation targeting the people ( some deliberate bad faith, some innocent good faith but effect is the same) Depressing but that’s the world we live in unfortunately.

Precisely. It's "grey zone" or "boiled frog" warfare.

news.sky.com/story/into-the-grey-zone-podcast-episode-one-the-gathering-storm-12184704