Austalian state likely can't contain Delta, will let it rip

[starfro]

www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/nsw-delta-variant-may-never-be-controlled/100273956

Be thankful that here most vulnerable people are double jabbed, whereas over there it's far, far fewer.

Delta cannot be contained, it's too transmissible.

gotta agree with Ozgirl here. Spread is within households, work places, hospitals (in the UK anyway) NOT beaches, and exercising in parks even with delta.

We never had a rule in England regarding travel distances (although at one point we weren't allowed to stay overnight somewhere which limits the distance you can travel )
Scotland did have this rule - but England v Scotland cases etc have been broadly the same and any differences have been nothing to do with how far you could travel
You have to implement rules that a. people think are fair and reasonable and b. actually make sense - or people just won't buy into them.

I think the rules that Victoria brought in last year were disproportionate to the threat, yes. The curfew was utterly pointless and nonsensical and had nothing to do with the spread of the virus.

We shall have to disagree about this. I think rules should be about preventing the spread. You think the rules should do everything they can to stop people moving about and should be stricter. That’s fine. We disagree.

Agree @sashagabadon that’s exactly what I think the rules should be.
The more, and stricter the rules are, the more people will be likely to disregard them if they aren’t backed up by medical evidence.

The problem with overly punitive measures that make no difference is that they grind people down and they will be broken.

We had the 5k rule in Ireland. It was an absolute joke and eventually one of the mobile phone companies released data that showed just how blatantly everyone was ignoring it. But it impacts how you feel about other rules too. If the government can’t be trusted to take proportionate measures then people feel justified in making their own decisions.

And I’ve never understood the rationale for masks outside while also SD. Ridiculous.

@Ozgirl75

Agree *@sashagabadon* that’s exactly what I think the rules should be. The more, and stricter the rules are, the more people will be likely to disregard them if they aren’t backed up by medical evidence.

exactly - some people will follow any rules at all - but they're not the ones that are more likely to be spreading the virus in the first place. Plus people have to go to work , use public transport etc, live in houses of multiple occupation. Rules also have to have longevity We had the same curfew discussions last year - pubs / restaurants last summer had to shut at 10pm - result, loads of people out and about at 10pm rather than a more dispersed situation with people heading home 10pm to midnight as would be normally the case Think that rule got dropped pretty quickly iirc as it was nonsense

The rules in Victoria weren't disproportionate to the threat. I lived through it. It was awful but it was the right thing to do and it was effective. Gladys faffing and dithering and pleading is not working.

@cushioncovers

I wondered how long it would be until Australia ended up like the rest of the world. I think NZ won't be far behind. Not sure why they thought they could escape the virus by stopping people going in and out of the country all they've done is postponed the inevitable in my view.

Given that 99% of deaths in the US are now among the unvaccinated, I'd say that waiting for vaccination will have saved many hundreds of thousands of lives, which is a great thing. Some people will still die, and each death is a tragedy, but if it's those who have refused the vaccination there isn't much that anyone could do to help them.

Some of the Victorian rules were disproportionate (curfew and 5k limit). You would almost certainly have had the same outcome without those particular rules. Probably. I mean, no one really knows but if you can show me evidence of how these particular rules were necessary, and stopped the virus spreading, then I might reconsider.

@Blackbird2020

McGowan has already said, once all adults have been offered then we wouldn't lock down to protect those who won't help themselves

The thing is, you’re not locking down to protect people from Covid, you’re locking down to prevent the collapse of the healthcare system. You’re locking down so that people can get diagnosed with cancer early, you’re locking down so that ongoing life-saving medical treatment can continue, you’re locking down so that A&E can continue to function, you’re locking down so that babies can be born safely... From the view of government’s around the world, lockdown is not about stopping people from dying, it’s about preventing the infrastructure from collapse. If Australia doesn’t manage to vaccinate enough people, it’s not simply going to be a case of let those who don’t want the vaccine get covid. It will still affect the whole society.

Most people will get vaccinated; it's just been slow because of supply issues and a feeling of a lack of urgency, no great publicity campaign etc. but Aus is a very pro-vaccine country. You can't eg send your DC to nursery or state school unless they have been fully vaccinated. We also vaccinate all DC routinely for things that the NHS does not eg chickenpox, hepatitis.

It's just a case of time. When life was carrying on as normal, no long term lockdowns, and no one around you was getting ill or dying, getting the vaccine seemed like the greater risk. But now with things as they are in NSW people are being spurred to take it. So that is a good thing. We're getting more Pfizer in September, and hopefully I'll be amongst the next group accessing vaccination. Once everyone has been offered a vaccine the borders will open and we'll carry on.

I have been listening to police sirens all day here, I went for a quick walk before starting work and saw a police car pull over and reprimand people who where standing to close while waiting for their coffee.

Last night I went for a half hour swim and saw two groups have fines issued for having travelled more than 10km to be there.

The lockdown in NSW is being taken seriously, by nsw and they are working hard to prevent ongoing infringements.

People stayed the fuck at home.

OOooh, "the fuck" at home, is it?
Haven't heard that one for a while.

All the conversations in Australia right now are like hearing a tape recording of the stupid arguments and insults that were being repeated endlessly in the UK in spring 2020. It's actually quite eerie.

I'm tempted to trawl through the threads of 15 months ago and create an Antipodean Lockdown Bingo Board/drinking game.

Takeaway CoffeeGate
Arguments about people sitting on park benches
People lining masks with sanitary pads
Supermarkets putting sticky tape on books and CDs because this will make the virus go away
Endless rows over what constitutes "essential shopping"
Calls to ban alcohol
Calls to ban DIY
Calls to ban children from leaving the house ever
Wackadoodle antilockdown protesters
Police rummaging through people's trolleys to check they haven't bought anything fun
Fake mask exemption badges
Quarantining shopping and mopping post with disinfectant
People descending on the countryside en masse and leaving rubbish everywhere
Curfews that basically result in everyone doing exercise at the same time (that's clever)
People asking if it's safe to leave windows open
Enforced clapping in the name of God Knows What

@TheKeatingFive

The problem with overly punitive measures that make no difference is that they grind people down and they will be broken.

We had the 5k rule in Ireland. It was an absolute joke and eventually one of the mobile phone companies released data that showed just how blatantly everyone was ignoring it. But it impacts how you feel about other rules too. If the government can’t be trusted to take proportionate measures then people feel justified in making their own decisions.

And I’ve never understood the rationale for masks outside while also SD. Ridiculous.

I can’t believe how many people are wearing masks outside in Adelaide. They’re ‘recommended’ for common areas of my office but I don’t wear one. I actually find everyone suddenly wanting to wear masks a little unnerving. It’s really not true that they’re a measure that is easy and has no downsides. I’m suddenly feeling like I don’t really want to go out and do things. Maybe not so bad in winter but as soon as it warms up they will be horribly oppressive. I really hope the mask guidelines are relaxed in a couple weeks if we still have no community transmission. Even seeing the poor workers in shops and restaurants that have no choice but to wear them all day makes me feel sad and angry.

The other day I had an argument with a friend about the ban on leaving the house even for exercise that was implemented in the circuit breaker lockdown in Adelaide last year. I said that I agreed with the lockdown but the exercise ban was government overreach and seriously disturbing. My friend told me I should just trust the government and that questioning them was wrong.

The whole thing is just doing my head in

@Ozgirl75

Some of the Victorian rules were disproportionate (curfew and 5k limit). You would almost certainly have had the same outcome without those particular rules. Probably. I mean, no one really knows but if you can show me evidence of how these particular rules were necessary, and stopped the virus spreading, then I might reconsider.

It was pretty much admitted by the Victorian Government that the curfew was for shock and awe value and to make policing easier. In my opinion not good enough reasons for what is a pretty big attack on people’s liberties.

Yes, it’s like if you question any of these arbitrary rules you’re aligned with anti vaxx freedom protest nutters.
I fully agree with enforcing the rules that obviously make a difference to the spread but that doesn’t mean we should start blindly accepting that whatever the government says, goes.

@Kokeshi123

I'm tempted to trawl through the threads of 15 months ago and create an Antipodean Lockdown Bingo Board/drinking game.

Takeaway CoffeeGate
Arguments about people sitting on park benches
People lining masks with sanitary pads
Supermarkets putting sticky tape on books and CDs because this will make the virus go away
Endless rows over what constitutes "essential shopping"
Calls to ban alcohol
Calls to ban DIY
Calls to ban children from leaving the house ever
Wackadoodle antilockdown protesters
Police rummaging through people's trolleys to check they haven't bought anything fun
Fake mask exemption badges
Quarantining shopping and mopping post with disinfectant
People descending on the countryside en masse and leaving rubbish everywhere
Curfews that basically result in everyone doing exercise at the same time (that's clever)
People asking if it's safe to leave windows open
Enforced clapping in the name of God Knows What

Happy memories! Although we are still deep in arguments, just different ones, masks, vaccinating children, amber, green travel corridors, vaccine passports, and the a level results drama will kick off week after next as sure as night follows day so we have that to look forward to

All the conversations in Australia right now are like hearing a tape recording of the stupid arguments and insults that were being repeated endlessly in the UK in spring 2020. It's actually quite eerie.

It really is, isn't it? I have a friend who travelled home to Sydney in February after spending a year in the UK and he's understandably very pissed off at having to go through this bullshit again, after we only just got over it here.

I think it's too early to say whether the lockdown is working to bring cases down in Sydney anyway. Didn't the current restrictions only get brought in about a week ago? There's always a bit of a lag before there's a noticeable effect on cases, while infections work through household groups and so on. Give it another week or two and we might see cases falling without the need for stricter measures.

Incidentally, one argument I heard in favour of curfew in Victoria was that it was effective at stopping house parties. You can't easily police how many people are gathered inside a house, but you can police who's outside after 10pm, and if people can't go back home in the evening they're less likely to get together in the first place. Not saying I agree with it as a policy (I don't) but it could be effective.

Although we are still deep in arguments, just different ones, masks, vaccinating children, amber, green travel corridors, vaccine passports, and the a level results drama will kick off week after next as sure as night follows day so we have that to look forward to

True, but as a society I feel like we've definitely dialled down the madness a bit compared to last year. Maybe not on MN, but it's always been full of weirdos here

I think it's only the UK that has had a "Pingdemic" - a problem completely of our own making and for that I feel strangely proud

My concern is that without the additional immunity that arises as a result of natural infection, the exit wave in zero covid countries will be so significant that further lockdowns will be required to keep levels manageable.

If only they'd already had a wave of infections significant enough to need lockdowns, like we did, then they'd have a good level of natural immunity like the UK has and they could... avoid an exit wave of infections significant enough to need lockdowns. I bet they must be kicking themselves!

I think you're right that things may seem worse post vaccine than pre vaccine there, but I think characterising the problem as 'lack of natural immunity' doesn't really make sense, as the only way to have got that natural immunity would have been to have gone through an even worse wave with high numbers of deaths earlier on.

@Balloonrace

My concern is that without the additional immunity that arises as a result of natural infection, the exit wave in zero covid countries will be so significant that further lockdowns will be required to keep levels manageable.

If only they'd already had a wave of infections significant enough to need lockdowns, like we did, then they'd have a good level of natural immunity like the UK has and they could... avoid an exit wave of infections significant enough to need lockdowns. I bet they must be kicking themselves!

I think you're right that things may seem worse post vaccine than pre vaccine there, but I think characterising the problem as 'lack of natural immunity' doesn't really make sense, as the only way to have got that natural immunity would have been to have gone through an even worse wave with high numbers of deaths earlier on.

My point is, is that the message? Is that generally being communicated/understood?

Immunity (however it's acquired) will eventually reduce cases. It stands to reason that countries that have had widespread infection AND high levels of vaccination will have more overall immunity than those whose population only have vaccine induced immunity. When restrictions are lifted I'd expect a bigger exit wave in the latter.

That's not a criticism of any particular approach, just an observation. With delta on the scene it seems less likely to me that zero covid countries will simply be able to open even after widespread vaccination. It's going to be a much more protracted process than I think is generally appreciated.

I can completely see why NZ and Australia pursued zero covid, I think it was a completely unrealistic and unachievable aim for the U.K. (and so I'm glad we didn't attempt it as I think it would have been an abject failure) but that's principally because of things like supply chain issues etc.

No one really knows how any strategy will ultimately work out when we all look back on this in 10 years time, I suspect every country will have its fair share of things that could have been done differently with the benefit of hindsight.

Last year we watched in horror the mounting death toll in Italy, the UK and the US. We took measures to avoid that. We used our geographic advantages. This year we watched the Delta variant unroll in India and it was clear that this was a more infectious strain and would require more serious measures. First priority has been to save lives. Now the question is how do we rejoin the world? I am a professional who has travelled extensively for work and pleasure, lived in Europe and Asia and have friends and family everywhere. I don't enjoy being cut off but can accept that it may be a couple of years more. I am utterly disappointed in our Federal government who have shown Trumpian and Johnsonian lack of leadership.
@Kokeshi123 you may mock the language we use. We are not blindly repeating the UK experience and discourse. We are frustrated that our biggest state has chosen to take advice from 'business' over health.

You don’t speak for me @StartupRepair, you might be frustrated about this and be happy to stay at home all the time. Presumably your “professional” job is relatively unaffected by lockdown?
You don’t speak for the small business owners, construction workers, people whose livelihoods have been decimated by lockdowns. NSW, all the way through this, have tried their hardest to balance the need to limit the spread of the virus with the ability of people to work and pay their own way, and have freedom to live.
I don’t agree with everything the NSW govt has done (especially with hindsight) and I don’t disagree with everything the Victorian govt did last year but to put it as simplistically as “business vs life” shows a very limited view of the issues. Business is far from just big corporations.

Parts of QLD going into strictest lockdown there yet due to 6 cases.

QLD has found a genomic link between their new cluster and a case from hotel quarantine. So much for halving the quarantine quota solving their problem. They can’t contain Delta. Queensland CMO saying infected people are capable of transmitting the virus within 30 hours of exposure.

They’re either going to have to stop all new arrivals or accept a suppression strategy IMO.