100,000 cases a day by August....bloody hell

[ssd]

We're all going to get it eventually it seems

If Delta had not become dominant and we were dealing with the older form we might have had a chance

The R rate of Delta unchecked is nearly 8, what do people think is going to happen if everything opens up and goes back to how it was with no masks etc.?

Luckily the vaccines have reduced that r rate.

You are placing huge importance on masks. Many things are currently open.

@itchybitch

The flu vaccine is enough for the flu

Covid is not at all like the flu, faster mutater, a lot more transmissible, higher death rate.

I do not think the vaccines are good enough at the moment to open up all society and do away with distancing and masks. Its insanity

The virus hasn't mutated so much away from its original form because that's why the current vaccines are working well against the delta variant.

Honestly, some of the nonsense spouted on here is just zzzzzzzz

@itchybitch

If Delta had not become dominant and we were dealing with the older form we might have had a chance

The R rate of Delta unchecked is nearly 8, what do people think is going to happen if everything opens up and goes back to how it was with no masks etc.?

But it won't be unchecked, or anything like unchecked. Most importantly, we have vaccines - even one dose offers up to 94% protection against hospitalisation, depending on vaccine used. People will still be isolating after a positive test. Many people will continue to wear masks and be scrupulous about hand hygiene.

This notion that when everything opens up covid will be 'unchecked' is bonkers.

Honestly, some of the nonsense spouted on here is just zzzzzzzz

So much this.

@itchybitch

If Delta had not become dominant and we were dealing with the older form we might have had a chance

The R rate of Delta unchecked is nearly 8, what do people think is going to happen if everything opens up and goes back to how it was with no masks etc.?

There is so much that's already opened up, so the final step on no legal requirement for masks/SD is pretty insignificant, when compared to all the things that are allowed, i.e. pubs & restaurants, schools, socialising in general, non essential retail, gyms & hairdressers etc etc.

IF we're going to hit 100k per day, then we'll hit it whether the legal requirements for masks and SD are kept or not, the difference is just the timing.

To all those saying that we didn't have vaccines in March 2020, we also didn't have Delta.

First hand reports from NHS workers are remarkably similar to those heard just before the first lockdown.

And instead of introducing restrictions, we're getting rid of them all.

@NannyAndJohn

To all those saying that we didn't have vaccines in March 2020, we also didn't have Delta.

First hand reports from NHS workers are remarkably similar to those heard just before the first lockdown.

And instead of introducing restrictions, we're getting rid of them all.

And isn't it wonderful that the vaccines are so effective, they mean that Covid deaths are down from one in 60 infected to one in 1000, even with Delta? And that's over all infections, not just in the vaccinated population.

Plus we have therapeutics that we didn't have last March.

Apples and oranges.

At the moment, yes.

But we're not at the end of the lag yet.

@NannyAndJohn

To all those saying that we didn't have vaccines in March 2020, we also didn't have Delta.

First hand reports from NHS workers are remarkably similar to those heard just before the first lockdown.

And instead of introducing restrictions, we're getting rid of them all.

So you want to go back to lockdown then and close everything down again? That's the only way we've been able to reduce infection rates. What do we do in a few months when we start to re-open? Close it all down again. And again, and again. Completely unrealistic.

@NannyAndJohn

At the moment, yes.

But we're not at the end of the lag yet.

Ffs. So when exactly is the end of the lag?

For those (@NannyAndJohn) who want restrictions to continue. When do you think a good time to lift them will be?

@NannyAndJohn

At the moment, yes.

But we're not at the end of the lag yet.

There it is, The Lag

The lag won't stop vaccines working, or therapeutics improving.

But it won't be unchecked, or anything like unchecked. Most importantly, we have vaccines - even one dose offers up to 94% protection against hospitalisation, depending on vaccine used. People will still be isolating after a positive test. Many people will continue to wear masks and be scrupulous about hand hygiene

This notion that when everything opens up covid will be 'unchecked' is bonkers

I thought one dose offers approx 30% against serious illness? which why they are looking at reducing the time period between doses.

Of course we are moving away from all restrictions, aside from foreign travel, they have all gone.

Personally i think its fucking crazy but i don't have enough information to say that with 100% certainty, they are wrong to do so, i just don't believe the NHS has any capacity to handle any increase in patient numbers, its on its knees, heading for 13m on waiting lists.

@Delatron

For those (*@NannyAndJohn*) who want restrictions to continue. When do you think a good time to lift them will be?

I don't want all restrictions to continue but I certainly think to maintain some would be sensible. I would suggest a good time to lift them is when more of the population in double vaccinated. If you look at London for example levels of 2 vaccines are generally only 30 to 40 percent in most boroughs leaving a substantial % of the population vulnerable.

The link between infection and hospitalisation and death has been severed not broken and is around 10% of what it was in January. If cases are 2 x as high as in January we can expect deaths to be 20% of peak so around 300 per day which is still substantial. In addition we are looking at between 2000 to 5000 people per day with long term impacts which will have substantial impacts on the health service for years.

I think the key thing is to maintain the measures which don't impact on the economy until vaccination levels improve. Just a couple of months would really help. Herd immunity through vaccination is far preferable to herd immunity through infection.

@jasjas1973

But it won't be unchecked, or anything like unchecked. Most importantly, we have vaccines - even one dose offers up to 94% protection against hospitalisation, depending on vaccine used. People will still be isolating after a positive test. Many people will continue to wear masks and be scrupulous about hand hygiene

This notion that when everything opens up covid will be 'unchecked' is bonkers

I thought one dose offers approx 30% against serious illness? which why they are looking at reducing the time period between doses.

Of course we are moving away from all restrictions, aside from foreign travel, they have all gone.

Personally i think its fucking crazy but i don't have enough information to say that with 100% certainty, they are wrong to do so, i just don't believe the NHS has any capacity to handle any increase in patient numbers, its on its knees, heading for 13m on waiting lists.

The country can't afford to continue to pay people for sitting at home not working. How about we continue with restrictions/lockdowns, etc., but scrap furlough and the other covid support schemes/loans etc. How would you like to see a million or two more unemployed, derelict businesses, etc. We have to move on now. People can take personal responsibility to wear masks and SD if they want to. They are also free to change jobs if they're in a job where they feel vulnerable if in close contact with other people.

I thought one dose offers approx 30% against serious illness? which why they are looking at reducing the time period between doses.

30% reduction in being symptomatic, not serious illness I believe

@Indigopearl I think the key thing is to maintain the measures which don't impact on the economy until vaccination levels improve. Just a couple of months would really help. Herd immunity through vaccination is far preferable to herd immunity through infection.

All measures WILL impact on the economy. Pubs, restaurants, hairdressers, cafes, gyms, etc etc can't operate at normal capacity if they have to social distance. That means smaller profits (or losses) thus less tax revenue, more furlough claims, more likelihood of business failure/bankruptcy, etc. How much longer can nightclubs stave off bankruptcy if they're not allowed to open? There isn't a single precaution that doesn't affect the economy (maybe mask wearing I suppose but that seems to have minimal effect anyway). The precautions/restrictions which cut and reduce infection rates are ALL about closure of businesses.

@Indigopearl I think (but do correct me if wrong) the reason London is lower for vaccinations is because of a younger population (therefore less likely to get ill) and vaccine refusal (so they will never be protected).

You’re proposing to keep restrictions until September so all adults will be vaccinated? Then you release restrictions just as we go in to autumn? So that’s a better time to see cases rise?

I disagree.

so business v health ?

I know people think these things are linked but really when will the penny drop? Our way of life has to change to live with Covid, not the other way around, by pretending it does not exist and trying to carry on. Its shit but some businesses are going to go bust.

The only measure that doesn’t impact the economy is mask wearing.....

I thought one dose offers approx 30% against serious illness? which why they are looking at reducing the time period between doses

Screenshot from the BBC. It depends on which vaccine you have but protection against hospitalisation is very good regardless, even after a single dose. It does obviously improve with both though.

@Delatron

The only measure that doesn’t impact the economy is mask wearing.....

Try telling that to the thousands of people whose livelihoods are in tatters because certain sectors have been unable to reopen while the mask mandate is in place. Towns and cities who are renowned for their hospitality sector have felt it particularly keenly.

I based mine of this PHE paper released in May?

www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1346

But its a fast moving area, so there may be newer research?

@NannyAndJohn

To all those saying that we didn't have vaccines in March 2020, we also didn't have Delta.

First hand reports from NHS workers are remarkably similar to those heard just before the first lockdown.

And instead of introducing restrictions, we're getting rid of them all.

But the vaccines are effective against delta.... Honestly, you really need to just stop.