100,000 cases a day by August....bloody hell

[ssd]

We're all going to get it eventually it seems

Talking of 'fudged", the daily deaths report only relates to deaths within 28 days after a positive test. Lots of patients die after 28 days. A sizeable proportion die several months after apparently recovering and being discharged from hospital (and as they're testing negative by that point, the death will be recorded as heart attack, stroke, etc, despite the original cause being Covid).

What we're not being told is which vaccine was given to the double jabbed who've died.

In the UK, 259 Delta deaths. 118 double jabbed.

In America, 99.5% of deaths in the unvaccinated.

America is mostly using Pfizer and Moderna, and on the 3 week dosing schedule.

Do we need to give mRNA boosters to people who were given Astrazeneca?

@Tealightsandd

Talking of 'fudged", the daily deaths report only relates to deaths within 28 days after a positive test. Lots of patients die after 28 days. A sizeable proportion die several months after apparently recovering and being discharged from hospital (and as they're testing negative by that point, the death will be recorded as heart attack, stroke, etc, despite the original cause being Covid).

What constitutes 'lots of'? What's your source?

www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n693

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-hospitals-death-long-covid-b1804704.html

[quote Tealightsandd]www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n693

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-hospitals-death-long-covid-b1804704.html[/quote]
Well, it is a vascular infection but people treat it as if it were a respiratory one.
Probably at our peril.

Agreed @jasjas1973

@Horseyhorsey3 interesting that the Mail included the word 'may' all they way through that article.

Third of Delta admissions may be for different illnesses.

It may be that the Delta variant presents differently so people don't think their symptoms were covid or it may be they have an underlying condition that is exacerbated by the Delta variant or it may be that they were poorly with something completely unrelated to covid but also had covid.

Not quite as straightfoward as your post suggests.

One bit of good news from that article is the fact that only 35% of people presenting at A&E with the Delta variant needed to spend any time in hospital, those figures are from a couple of weeks ago, hopefully that trend remains the same ?

I live in a delta hotspot county. The official figures from our local NHS trust (3 hospitals) show just 5 covid patients and only 2 of them on ventilators, across ALL 3 hospitals. Those numbers are tiny considering delta is rampant around here.

@Kazzyhoward

I live in a delta hotspot county. The official figures from our local NHS trust (3 hospitals) show just 5 covid patients and only 2 of them on ventilators, across ALL 3 hospitals. Those numbers are tiny considering delta is rampant around here.

On May 5th daily hospital admissions were 118.

On June 5th 124.

On June 24th, 247,

On June 25th 250

On July 5th 509.

I think they might have started doubling.

Apparently a high proportion of "admissions" are people who have very short stays. The actual numbers in hospital aren't rising anywhere near as fast as the daily admission figures would suggest which means the rate of discharge is also pretty fast.

Yes, we need clarity; des "In hospital" just mean attended A+E for any reason and had a swab that was positive, but they were sent home? In hospital for something else, happened to test positive? Or admitted because of complications from covid?

At the peak of the second wave in January of this year the DH of a colleague had Covid (as did she and their DCs). She had to phone 999 for him on a number of occasions. The paramedics came out and stabilised him at home, giving him oxygen etc. They told her that they were going from house to house trying to keep people out of hospital. There were no spare beds available at that time. There were 1441 people in hospital in my county at the peak. The latest report as at 6 July was 30. If he was ill today and she called 999 he would be taken to hospital… but he would be unlikely to stay in there for a long time…

The NHS can't cope with the backlog that restrictions have created, along with the amount of staff who have to be in self isolation at any given time. If it wasn't for these problems (that lockdowns have created) the numbers in hospital with covid right now would be manageable, especially given that a good proportion are there for other reasons and are not requiring long term care.

I can't see how the NHS can survive this tbh, the number of people awaiting treatment in England is staggering and that's what is overwhelming the system for the most part right now.

@FromEden without the restrictions at the time no doubt the position would be worse.
Didn't read the story yet but medics may no longer need to isolate as a contact which should help eith staff availability.

Can't now find report so probably just double vaccinated next month.

I doubt Eden genuinely believes what they are saying. Nobody can be that wilfully blind. It's been in our faces more than once, over the past 18 months. Hospitals were overun with Covid patients (and short-staffed due to staff getting ill from Covid, Long Covid, and PTSD). And, 1 in 5 Covid infections were caught in hospital. Vulnerable cancer patients and others dangerously exposed. Because of the pandemic. And failed containment.
(I do agree that long lockdown wasn't the best approach though. That would've been pandemic border control. Imagine that. There would have been no Delta strain).

Well Boris has made us the petri dish of the world who are looking on with bated breath. If we win (with sadly some collateral damage) then there is a route out of the bog if not then buy gold and hunker down because it's going to get a lot rougher.

What worries me is that whilst positive tests are going up, we know there is at least 2 weeks delay before more severe symptoms which might require hospital stay.
In previous lockdowns we were always aware of that delay and government was concerned enough to report it.

Now, BoJo decided to take a chance on the assumption that vaccines are pretty much guaranteed to work but the whole scenario is a petri dish and there is no absolute certainty if virus mutates.

People might be admitted to hospital for different conditions but the virus is insidious enough to cause problems in numerous ways and organs, so eg someone's stroke might be caused by the virus.

amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/08/nhs-hospitals-forced-to-cancel-operations-again-by-unfolding-third-wave?__twitter_impression=true

The Guardian Live coverage today is extremely interesting.

Particularly the quotes from the Andrew Marr interview with Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter:

www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/jul/11/coronavirus-live-news-covid-uk-health-latest-updates

They are starting to backtrack on masks now, which is a good thing.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/11/zahawi-covid-reopening-going-ahead-on-19-july-but-mask-wearing-expected

@YogaLite

What worries me is that whilst positive tests are going up, we know there is at least 2 weeks delay before more severe symptoms which might require hospital stay. In previous lockdowns we were always aware of that delay and government was concerned enough to report it.

Now, BoJo decided to take a chance on the assumption that vaccines are pretty much guaranteed to work but the whole scenario is a petri dish and there is no absolute certainty if virus mutates.

People might be admitted to hospital for different conditions but the virus is insidious enough to cause problems in numerous ways and organs, so eg someone's stroke might be caused by the virus.

We've already had a 4 week delay to check that hospitalisations/deaths weren't rising as fast in infections and to check how well the vaccines were working. We now have the statistics to show that, so no longer any reason to delay further.

[quote foxandbee]They are starting to backtrack on masks now, which is a good thing.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/11/zahawi-covid-reopening-going-ahead-on-19-july-but-mask-wearing-expected[/quote]
It is, but I'm sick to death of being played with by this government. They are so incompetant.

My husband, our daughter and I have all turned off the tracking part of the covid app and we are as cautious and rule abiding about covid as they come. I just don't trust the government to get anything right.

We will still check into venues and isolate if we are ill or have been in close contact with someone with covid, but I'm not relying on anything implemented by this lot. We will continue to wear masks inside and social distance as much as possible. Vaccines aside they have been awful and when they do get it right it's largely by accident, rather than design.

When people like my husband say they don't trust the government then you know you're in trouble.

I agree knittingaddict. It is the same old story with Johnson. He promises people what he thinks they want to hear (cf the handlong of Christmas) and then backtracks when it become evident that it is not a good idea..

I do trust the government here in Wales though. Drakeford has made mistakes, but generally he has been a steady hand and unafraid to make unpopular decisions.