100,000 cases a day by August....bloody hell

[ssd]

We're all going to get it eventually it seems

@lubeybooby

I was, not very long ago of the opinion that things would be fine due to the amazing number of vaccinations completed and we have to just live, and that even if high numbers of people catch covid, they'll all have it very mildly and hospital admissions and deaths will remain low and the NHS will be fine

But...

It turns out that even with all the vaccinations, if numbers go as high as predicted, it actually does STILL present the risk of overwhelming the NHS, especially when they are trying to catch up on cancelled and rescheduled appointments, and will then be trying to juggle both

also the proportion of people suffering long covid even after a mild case seems too high, and it being allowed to just rip through us, as it has with our poor kids, it's a risk for creating more new variants

Plus we'll end up on many other countries red lists travel wise

I dunno. I'm just saying I've changed my opinion based on these things from 'we have to just live now' to 'keep at least some restrictions for a bit longer'

Thank you for posting and being honest in your change of opinion.

Because of the confusing messages from our government a lot of people think it's now just a case of getting on with it and allowing infections spiral to save the economy and to get nhs waiting lists down and save our children's education. But this is an absurd direction to go in in my mind. When we are at 100k infections per day every single one of them will be isolating somewhere. Who are these 100k going to be? Under 16s, uni students, working age, frontline workers, key workers, parents. The disruption because of isolating infected people is going to have a massive impact on us all. Pre covid when you had a minor illness most would take some paracetamol and carry on or have 1 or 2 days off but this is now very different.

Since vaccination deaths are approx. 0.3% of cases. Deaths lag cases by 3 weeks. 7th July 33 deaths, 16th June 10,476 cases (0.3%).

From this we can extrapolate that with 100,000 cases a day we will expect around 315 deaths a day.

Without vaccination however deaths would be far higher. On Jan 22nd we had 1500 deaths. 3 weeks prior we had 53000 cases per day so the death rate was around 2.8%. Without vaccination and with 100,000 cases a day we could expect around 2830 deaths a day.

So vaccination is helping a great deal but high cases does unfortunately still mean some deaths.

It honestly astounds me that people think every infected person is going to be isolating. I'm not saying it's a good idea, but they really won't. Have we not learned that by now?

@BoaCunstrictor

It honestly astounds me that people think every infected person is going to be isolating. I'm not saying it's a good idea, but they really won't. Have we not learned that by now?

What are they going to do then after they receive a positive test? Go back in to work? The rules on isolating after a positive test are not changing are they? This 100k figure is of confirmed infections not just people walking around asymptomatically not knowing they are infected.

@BoaCunstrictor

It honestly astounds me that people think every infected person is going to be isolating. I'm not saying it's a good idea, but they really won't. Have we not learned that by now?

There's another thread on here saying the same, most people seem to be responding to say they won't isolate unless they have symptoms and definitely won't isolate even now if 'just' a close contact.

I will, would never forgive myself if I infected someone and they got really ill or died just because I didn't fancy staying home for a few days.

Yes, some of them will be physically in their workplaces. You would be naive indeed to imagine a combination of low SSP and pressure from employers never leads to this, and remember that not every employer will necessarily even be told about a positive. Others will not be physically in a workplace for whatever reason but will still go to places outside the home. You don't have to like or support this to understand that it has happened and will continue to do so.

The government isn't that concerned about the number of deaths, though, are they? NHS capacity is much more of an issue and it's even more difficult now than it was last year because of the huge backlog of other essential but planned treatments and surgeries that keep being delayed further and further. Even one covid patients in a hospital takes out a whole ward that then can't be used for those recovering from cancer or heart surgery.

I wasn't hugely concerned about opening up but the extent of opening up / getting rid of any restrictions is starting to look a bit risky. Schapps has just confirmed no quarantine from any amber countries for those double vaccinated. We will have no restrictions on social distancing, everyone back to work / school, no school bubbles, no self-isolation and scaled down track and trace at the same time covid cases are increasing weekly. It just seems to be a huge gamble. Hope we get the right outcome.

@BigWoollyJumpers

Deaths are still flat though. We shall see if they spike in July with the increase in infections. They might, they might not.

Quick mental tot up for May/June.

Infections May - 73k - Deaths 500
Infections June - 340k - Deaths 400

Cases were flat for ages then they weren't.

Hospital admissions were flat for ages then they weren't.

We know how this goes. We've been here before.

I feel like I’ve been on Willy Wonka’s boat since 2020.

“There’s no earthly way of knowing, which direction the rivers flowing”.

@BigWoollyJumpers

Deaths are still flat though. We shall see if they spike in July with the increase in infections. They might, they might not.

Quick mental tot up for May/June.

Infections May - 73k - Deaths 500
Infections June - 340k - Deaths 400

Yes, it will be interesting to see what happens in July.

I think, proportionally to the number of infections, deaths will actually go down compared to previous months (just like your figures show between June and May). That's because as we work through the prioritisation for vaccinations the more at risk of death are protected better.

If your figures are right then there were 1 in 146 covid infections resulting in deaths for May, and 1 in 850 covid infections resulting in death for June... so say if infections roughly increased at the rate they did between May and June (June infections figs 4.65 x those of May) for July, leading to 1,500k July infections, and there was a corresponding amelioration in deaths at the same rate as that between May and June (going from 1 in 146, to 1 in 850, to 1 in 4947) then in July:

1,500k infections would result in 303 deaths according to my figures.

Of course it's unlikely to follow such a straightforward trend but it will be interesting to see what happens.

Yes we will all get it eventually, more than once.

It is definitely a worry for tthe vulnerable who do get protection from the vaccine or don't qualify.
No idea what the solution is though.

suggestionsplease. Thanks for the extra maths... I did a bit more finger in the air stuff and further to those deaths:

May Infections 72.5k - Hospitalisations at End May 904 (122 serious)
June Infections 340K - Hospitalisations at End June 1804 (287 serious)

Five fold increase in infections, only led to doubling of hospitalisations.

As before, I am always the optimist. Having posted this on another thread, I await PrincessNutsNuts to follow me around and post the pessimistic view.

Good news for those waiting on hospital treatment. And obviously only a personal observation, but two relatives waiting for orthopaedic ops since early last year, both been done this week. One hip, one knee, two areas of the country, one relative healthy youngster, and one very old and infirm elderly.

@BigWoollyJumpers

Good news for those waiting on hospital treatment. And obviously only a personal observation, but two relatives waiting for orthopaedic ops since early last year, both been done this week. One hip, one knee, two areas of the country, one relative healthy youngster, and one very old and infirm elderly.

Had to pay for my op, told it would be 2 years plus or an emg admission. FiL paid 5k for a hernia, mum paid 10k for her knee, which was agony pre op.

5m plus waiting for non emergency operations.

BUT i also know people who have been seen quickly, it seems very much a postcode lottery.

Perhaps you can tell my hospital trust to hurry up. I've been waiting 18 months now to see a surgeon.

Maths can explain a lot @suggestionsplease1 and @BigWoollyJumpers but cases being predominantly in the 10-30 age groups obviously lead to a lower proportion of deaths.

As prevalence rises and cases increase in older age groups we would expect the deaths to increase, wouldn't we?

Here your flat deaths again.

Having had dealings with bureaucracy surrounding SN for over a decade you become attuned to weasel words.

'Overwhelm' is a weasel word. It needs to be legalistically defined (because these are the times we live in). If elective surgery is cancelled the NHS is not overwhelmed. If access is restricted the NHS is not overwhelmed. If criteria for emergency admittance are changed the NHS is not overwhelmed. There are numerous things that can be done that mean that patient care is substandard without the NHS being 'overwhelmed'

So we know that patient care was substandard in the last wave - cancelled surgery, huge backlog (without even considering staff) but that's ok because we now know what the NHS can cope without absolutely and completely failing.

That completely misses the point. Mismanagement of a pandemic does not mean that a health service fails (another weasel word) it just becomes substandard. Patients can't access their GP, are not referred, can't access secondary or emergency care, elective surgery is cancelled, face to face SALT, OT, physiotherapy is on hold.

In terms of living with the virus where do we do from here?

So how do we define overwhelm? Number of Covid patients seriously ill or in ICU or ability of Heath care service to provide adequate care for non-Covid patients. And how does the government current strategy work with that?

@PrincessNutNuts

Maths can explain a lot *@suggestionsplease1 and @BigWoollyJumpers* but cases being predominantly in the 10-30 age groups obviously lead to a lower proportion of deaths.

As prevalence rises and cases increase in older age groups we would expect the deaths to increase, wouldn't we?

Here your flat deaths again.

Ah brilliant, there's a log scale option now!

@PrincessNutNuts

Maths can explain a lot *@suggestionsplease1 and @BigWoollyJumpers* but cases being predominantly in the 10-30 age groups obviously lead to a lower proportion of deaths.

As prevalence rises and cases increase in older age groups we would expect the deaths to increase, wouldn't we?

Here your flat deaths again.

Ha ha ha - Thank you for being consistent.

If you want to see flat deaths, please look at weekly ONS reports. Thank you.

I heard a HCP talking on the radio earlier who was pretty much saying what you are @KOKOagainandagain. His view was that if the government are set on this particular course then they need to be honest about what the situation means for wider healthcare needs and that it won’t happen in one big catastrophe like the onset of the pandemic but a constant drip of unacceptable circumstances leading to bad consequences. It’s true that we’ve been seeing that for years; this is only compounding the issue and bringing the reality into more peoples spheres.

Like the flu.eventually we will get immunity..also the vaccinnes are kicking in

I think it would be really useful if along with reports of the daily covid case numbers (20,000! 50,000!!) there was also something that contextualised the death numbers for covid alongside that of other causes. So something that says 20 people in the UK died of covid today, which was #15 most common cause of death (or whatever number it is). I think seeing this number in the context of the number of deaths caused by cancer, strokes, heart attacks, suicide etc world help some people get a clearer perspective.

Immunity to the flu ??? Like covid there is a different strains every year there is no immunity to the flu and unlike covid it's ten times less harmful.