100,000 cases a day by August....bloody hell

[ssd]

We're all going to get it eventually it seems

I haven't smoked for a long time. But if England win the football on Saturday, I'll exercise personal responsibility and have a cigarette to celebrate. (In the garden, not on the train)

Does anyone know what happened with that French study into nicotine patches as a potential Covid treatment? Nicotine has anti inflammatory properties.

Sunday even.

Sunday is going to be carnage.

I hope people think a tacky football trophy is worth another lockdown.

@NannyAndJohn

Sunday is going to be carnage.

I hope people think a tacky football trophy is worth another lockdown.

Oh come on. I hate football but FFS I'm glad we're through to the final. What do you want, for people to be at home for ever? You don't know there's going to be another lockdown just like nobody else knows. Many people have been vaccinated now and we're in a better position than we were a few months ago. We have to go out and enjoy life whilst we can. (Sensibly of course before anyone starts)

To be honest even if they want another lockdown I don't think they'll get anywhere near the level of compliance in regards to people mixing in homes etc. A year and a half of it and people have had enough, there's only so long you can expect people to put their lives on hold. Especially now that millions have voluntarily had a vaccine that hasn't been trialled properly, people believed getting vaccinated was the way out and have taken a, small risk bur albeit still a risk in taking a vaccine so new. Millions have also had the real virus and lost money etc from isolating, me being one of them.

I disagree. I think there would be high compliance. Particularly if the extent of the danger is spelled out. A) Potential development of vaccine resistant strain, and B) Long Covid disability risk.

Vaccines have been trialled properly. And they would be (a major part) of the way out. But they only work well if, a) On an individual level, fully vaccinated, b) On a societal level, majority of population fully vaccinated (both for true herd immunity, and to prevent transmission), and c) If precautions are taken to stop Covid freely spreading (and mutating) until majority are fully vaccinated.

And wrt lives on hold. People will be putting their lives on hold permanently if they die of Covid, and long term if they develop Long Covid. The reason why it's still going on, and getting worse, is failure to contain. Stricter lockdowns AND border control would have all made it all over with by now. Delta didn't need to happen, and it certainly didn't need to be allowed to freely spread.

I think there would be high compliance Cool. Hopefully that will include supermarket workers AND their delivery drivers and Amazon workers and delivery drivers locking down too.

I think what you are doing is called talking it up. But be careful what you wish for. See the workers ive listed above.

@Tealightsandd

smoking does kill. And not only the people who smoke. Which is why it is now banned indoors.

So does Covid. And masks indoors help prevent it.

Yet, smoking indoors is not allowed. In case it harms someone else.

But masks indoors are going to be a personal choice. Even although going maskless can harm somebody else.

Also why does it matter if smoking kills? Like you say, smoking is a choice (but not indoors...).

Catching Covid isn't a choice. If it's ok to 'live with' a disease that kills and disables, a disease that gives no pleasure, why isn't it ok to 'live with' smoking (which unlike Covid brings pleasure and tax money).

Why is it bad that smoking kills? We all die of something. Don't smoke so you can die of Covid?

Oh for fuck sake!!!

There is no helping you if you honestly can't see the difference between smoking and covid!!

Why should your choice to smoke make me ill??

Covid isn't a choice, it's a virus. People do not choose to have it nor pass it on. And as masks are currently mandated and have been for almost a year now, they are not that effective at stopping the spread.

@Tealightsandd

And wrt lives on hold. People will be putting their lives on hold permanently if they die of Covid, and long term if they develop Long Covid. The reason why it's still going on, and getting worse, is failure to contain. Stricter lockdowns AND border control would have all made it all over with by now. Delta didn't need to happen, and it certainly didn't need to be allowed to freely spread.

Interestingly one of the reasons being given for why Scotland is currently the covid capital of Europe is because the lockdown last year was stricter and longer than England so much less natural immunity in the community.

It's also interesting that despite really high case numbers that last year would have meant even further restrictions, the Scottish government have not used the level system to lockdown further. The highest level is level 2 currently. While the hospital numbers remain low there doesn't seem a chance that the Scottish government will increase restrictions.

@Whatever9999

When we get to "a million cases in ten days" sort of unprecedented prevalence we might have a better idea

Come on, you really are clutching at straws now. There simply aren't enough people vulnerable to the virus left for it to hit those numbers. Even with a doubling time of 9days that's 14million positive tests on the way to an average of 1million/day plus all the infections that are asymptomatic and not found.

In reality the pool of potential victims will be shrinking every day (through double vaccination and infection), so there will be a point far lower where it Will simply have nowhere to go.

You should tell that to the Health Secretary whose suggestion it was originally. It is obvious really when armed with such knowledge why all restrictions are now being relaxed.

@Tealightsandd

I disagree. I think there would be high compliance. Particularly if the extent of the danger is spelled out. A) Potential development of vaccine resistant strain, and B) Long Covid disability risk.

Vaccines have been trialled properly. And they would be (a major part) of the way out. But they only work well if, a) On an individual level, fully vaccinated, b) On a societal level, majority of population fully vaccinated (both for true herd immunity, and to prevent transmission), and c) If precautions are taken to stop Covid freely spreading (and mutating) until majority are fully vaccinated.

The majority ARE fully vaccinated. We're over 50% now. That's a majority.

@Tealightsandd

And wrt lives on hold. People will be putting their lives on hold permanently if they die of Covid, and long term if they develop Long Covid. The reason why it's still going on, and getting worse, is failure to contain. Stricter lockdowns AND border control would have all made it all over with by now. Delta didn't need to happen, and it certainly didn't need to be allowed to freely spread.

Countries with border controls are now badly suffering the delta variant, as are countries with stricter lockdowns. Sounds like you want the China method of guards stopping people leaving their homes etc.

@Whatever9999

When we get to "a million cases in ten days" sort of unprecedented prevalence we might have a better idea

Come on, you really are clutching at straws now. There simply aren't enough people vulnerable to the virus left for it to hit those numbers. Even with a doubling time of 9days that's 14million positive tests on the way to an average of 1million/day plus all the infections that are asymptomatic and not found.

In reality the pool of potential victims will be shrinking every day (through double vaccination and infection), so there will be a point far lower where it Will simply have nowhere to go.

I don't think you read the part you quoted correctly. Not a million a day, a million in 10 days. Which given on average 3 other people end up in isolation as a result, we could have a case where we have 4 million in isolation as a result, many of whom will be kids of working parents. That's going to challenge day to day logistics of many businesses.

I disagree. I think there would be high compliance. Particularly if the extent of the danger is spelled out. A) Potential development of vaccine resistant strain, and B) Long Covid disability risk.

Both those things are very, very widely discussed. You may think that people should be more worried about them and that they're wrong not to be but the fact of the matter is that only a very small minority are concerned enough about long Covid or potential but not yet existing new variants to accept their lives being restricted indefinitely. People were told that they were doing this to save the lives of the vulnerable and to stop the NHS collapsing, you can't expect that once those two risks were massively reduced people should just move onto being terrified of something else because you are and because you want a zero Covid strategy. People can see the mission creep and they don't like it.

Govt is looking to change the isolation rules and decreasing the sensitivity of the app and/or doing nothing about people deleting the 'app.

Kinda wishing a problem away.

If people actually observe it of course...

I think that perhaps a major issue is that people who very strongly feel that a NZ style zero covid strategy is very clearly the correct approach are bound to consider that every step taken by the government is wrong precisely because it is not in pursuit of that approach.

The government have decided, rightly or wrongly, not to go that way. I can see the logic behind the decision in light of the UK's particular challenges with respect to border control. In any event, the die is cast, the direction of travel is established and it is not towards zero covid.

The steps being taken now are not being taken to pursue zero covid. If you would prefer a zero covid approach you will be unhappy with pretty much every single step taken from here on in (and no doubt the vast majority already taken). I think that's just the reality of the situation at this point.

I wonder if the usual doom mongers on this thread are as depressing to be around in real life. I simply can't bring myself to care about covid anymore.

I realise (before anyone points this out) that it doesn't mean it has gone away etc etc. but like zoom fatigue, covid fatigue has definitely set in. Interesting times we live in.

I was, not very long ago of the opinion that things would be fine due to the amazing number of vaccinations completed and we have to just live, and that even if high numbers of people catch covid, they'll all have it very mildly and hospital admissions and deaths will remain low and the NHS will be fine

But...

It turns out that even with all the vaccinations, if numbers go as high as predicted, it actually does STILL present the risk of overwhelming the NHS, especially when they are trying to catch up on cancelled and rescheduled appointments, and will then be trying to juggle both

also the proportion of people suffering long covid even after a mild case seems too high, and it being allowed to just rip through us, as it has with our poor kids, it's a risk for creating more new variants

Plus we'll end up on many other countries red lists travel wise

I dunno. I'm just saying I've changed my opinion based on these things from 'we have to just live now' to 'keep at least some restrictions for a bit longer'

I can see the logic behind the decision in light of the UK's particular challenges with respect to border control.

Yes, I will hear many, many things against Boris Johnson, but not one person has yet been able to explain convincingly how that approach was going to be achieved with a supply chain as integrated as ours. None of this is to say the government shouldn't have taken action sooner, or that the Tories implementing austerity and ignoring pandemic planning didn't leave us further up the creek than we needed to be (and when we look back at this, I think we'll see that the latter in particular is particularly to blame and caused a great many avoidable deaths).

But the idea that the UK could exert that level of border control whilst still keeping the population fed is just fanciful. The same thing that makes Brexit such a fucking terrible idea is what also makes an NZ style approach not possible here.

@NannyAndJohn

Sunday is going to be carnage.

I hope people think a tacky football trophy is worth another lockdown.

Sunday is going to be great and there won’t be another lockdown.

Chill out

@ButteringMyArse

I can see the logic behind the decision in light of the UK's particular challenges with respect to border control.

Yes, I will hear many, many things against Boris Johnson, but not one person has yet been able to explain convincingly how that approach was going to be achieved with a supply chain as integrated as ours. None of this is to say the government shouldn't have taken action sooner, or that the Tories implementing austerity and ignoring pandemic planning didn't leave us further up the creek than we needed to be (and when we look back at this, I think we'll see that the latter in particular is particularly to blame and caused a great many avoidable deaths).

But the idea that the UK could exert that level of border control whilst still keeping the population fed is just fanciful. The same thing that makes Brexit such a fucking terrible idea is what also makes an NZ style approach not possible here.

Yes, I agree that the U.K's supply chain is such that it is pretty much impossible to compare us with NZ. Yes, both countries are island nations but beyond that they are entirely different.

Even if zero covid could be achieved it then has to be maintained with very strict border controls and strict lockdowns as soon as you identify a handful of cases. With thousands of lorries coming into the U.K. everyday (and no way of replacing the food that they bring) we would have been in a constant series of lockdowns to control small case numbers and maintain zero covid. I really cannot see that it would be viable as an option.

Deaths are still flat though. We shall see if they spike in July with the increase in infections. They might, they might not.

Quick mental tot up for May/June.

Infections May - 73k - Deaths 500
Infections June - 340k - Deaths 400