100,000 cases a day by August....bloody hell

[ssd]

We're all going to get it eventually it seems

@AlecTrevelyan006

It's getting on my nerves, all these references to 'opening up too early', to 'lifting all restrictions at once'. That is EXACTLY what hasn't happened. It's taken months and multiple steps that were all laid out at the start of this process. These are the last parts of opening up - where does this idea that we are doing it too quickly or all at once come from?! It is demonstrably incorrect.

The original roadmap was predicated on the steady decline to under 2000 cases a day and an assumption that that would continue. Obviously that hasn't been the case.

@4forkssake

There have been approximately 5 million cases to date & for ease of maths, approx 500 days since this started. That equates to an average of 10k cases per day (yes we were supposed to have peaks & troughs but that's the average). That's with no one jabbed for at least 10 of those months. And it's also not including any false positives, of which there were probably many, as the PCR wasn't run on the correct cycle, so the 5 million is probably a stretch.

So how on Earth are they predicting 100k cases per day during the summer months when a vast majority of the population have supposedly been jabbed?

Hmmm. Could it be because there were restrictions in place to prevent the spread???

And here we all are squabbling amongst ourselves while the government barely looks up from its covid poker table with all the cards in its hands.

@BoredZelda

and the number who are in hospital with something else and test positive for Covid.

This number will be very low. Unless you are going in for emergency treatment, if you test positive for Covid prior to having a routine procedure, they cancel it.

I think actually its quite high. My best friend is a bed manager in a large city Trust and the majority of their positives are incidental findings (usually admitted via A&E because unwell/injured with something else). There are v few very unwell in ITU (mainly unvaccinated either by choice or complex health issues).

I kind of get that it was reopen now, or probably have to wait another 9 months or so, because if you wait until September it's 'But schools are back and it's going to be flu season soon' and then you have to wait until next spring or summer. Delta is starting to impact Europe but I suspect not many countries will go back into any kind of lockdown, however they will probably be more circumspect than the UK.

I do think the government's also taking a massive gamble and not still mandating masks is a mistake, as is not vaccinating 12-18yos over summer.

I figure we might just about 'get away with it' this summer in terms of hospitalisations/deaths, but wouldn't be surprised if we pay for it with a variant in winter and we end up still in a COVID hole/locked down again next winter/spring while the rest of the world starts to carry on with something more like normal life.

4forkssake
There have been approximately 5 million cases to date & for ease of maths, approx 500 days since this started. That equates to an average of 10k cases per day (yes we were supposed to have peaks & troughs but that's the average). That's with no one jabbed for at least 10 of those months. And it's also not including any false positives, of which there were probably many, as the PCR wasn't run on the correct cycle, so the 5 million is probably a stretch.

So how on Earth are they predicting 100k cases per day during the summer months when a vast majority of the population have supposedly been jabbed?


Hmmm. Could it be because there were restrictions in place to prevent the spread???

So you really believe that cases could increase 10 fold now or do you think it's a bit of scare mongering?

There are other options.

If you look at New Zealand (also an island) they are doing much better than us not only in terms of deaths and Covid cases but economically!

Saying "well, we have to open up sometime" is fake news. It's perfectly possible to curb the spread of this virus - and better economically - look at New Zealand, Vietnam, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan.

They are doing better than us by a LONG shot. Including their economies.

Our government has just fucked up. It's not inevitable - they've just made poor choices.

[quote bollihigh]It's herd immunity by catching it you get your third jab and it will inoculate children by proxy. It's the biggest gamble yet not without costs and consequences. The world is watching let's hope it works in the grand scheme of things. SAGE must have gone along with this given the demeanour of Whitty/Valance.

[/quote] Bear in mind that he's not a doctor of medicine.

John's got a phd in nursing, hence using 'Dr' as his title.

That's not to say he's not worth listening to, but if you watch his video where he talks to Prof. Tim Spector, you'll see that John deferred to him a lot and was put right on some of his more... reaching, shall we say, theories and ideas.

I do like John but a lot people seem to see 'Dr' and think 'facts'...

@4forkssake

4forkssake There have been approximately 5 million cases to date & for ease of maths, approx 500 days since this started. That equates to an average of 10k cases per day (yes we were supposed to have peaks & troughs but that's the average). That's with no one jabbed for at least 10 of those months. And it's also not including any false positives, of which there were probably many, as the PCR wasn't run on the correct cycle, so the 5 million is probably a stretch.

So how on Earth are they predicting 100k cases per day during the summer months when a vast majority of the population have supposedly been jabbed?


Hmmm. Could it be because there were restrictions in place to prevent the spread???

So you really believe that cases could increase 10 fold now or do you think it's a bit of scare mongering?

I'm not an expert so wouldn't like to hazard a guess. But we have had restrictions in place for 15 months to some degree or other. The entire purpose of those restrictions was to prevent spread. If we were hitting 68k a day in January WITH restrictions, then yes it seems quite plausible that without any restrictions, we could hit 100k. I know that vaccinations will have made a difference but it seems that the vaccines don't stop transmission. I don't think we will see the same number of deaths but that isn't relevant to cases.

In our family, we have completely stopped following advice from the "government". We're doing what's best to protect our family. With the lack of social distancing measures, we'll no longer be going to cinemas, restaurants and shops. Well done, Alexander Johnson!

We've done exactly the same @Seltina and won't be going to shops, cinemas, restaurants etc either.

@SofiaMichelle

And still no one has posted an answer to "what's the alternative?" Other than to retain social distancing and compulsory masks, which is totally unworkable.

Vast swathes of the economy rely on high numbers of people being in close proximity to operate.

Pubs/restaurants can't go on forever with severely reduced capacity due to extra spacing and no standing, plus extra staff costs due to 100% table service.

Businesses like manufacturers are suffering badly due to factory workers missing because of self-isolation due to contact track/trace rather than actual illness. That's completely unsustainable for some of my clients - they just can't turn a profit at 8%+ absence, which some are running at now.

We can't just keep waiting and waiting and waiting.

I'm not a blasé 'ignore the rules' type. I've stuck to the advice and regulations and have been vaccinated as soon as I could, etc, but surely we all see that we have to bite the bullet now.

Even Chris Whitty gives his personal approval to the plans on the grounds we really have little choice but to go for it now or wait until next spring/summer, by which time we would be well and truly fucked from all angles.

Completely agree.

I've only worked 16 weeks since April 2020 and my savings are starting to run out.
Many of my circle work in the arts, entertainment, music, dance, clubs, bars, event promotion etc and those sectors have been absolutely decimated to the point most will be unable to ever recover. Most of those have been unable to claim or earn a living in over a year.

But still we get the 'I don't do to pubs/clubs so what does it matter' comments. Well it matters a hell of a lot to those unable to pay their mortgage and bills now

There is no way that Chris Whitty is fully on board with this strategy.

The SAME DAY that it was announced by Boris and Sajid, he gave a speech to the LGA in which he said:

"Fundamentally the two ways to prevent long Covid in my view are to keep Covid rates right down and make sure everyone is vaccinated so they get very mild disease and I think we really just need to push hell for leather for those two."

"The deaths from Covid I think are mercifully going to be much lower in this wave compared to the previous ones as a proportion of cases but long Covid remains, I think, a worry."

His view is that we should keep Covid rates right down.

That is not remotely in keeping with what was announced on the same day by Boris.

Like previous posters, I have also completely lost faith in government advice and my extended family and I are not going in to shops, cafes or restaurants in person any more.

I continue to seriously consider home schooling if the government don't invest in some kind of risk mitigation for schools.

@Seltina

In our family, we have completely stopped following advice from the "government". We're doing what's best to protect our family. With the lack of social distancing measures, we'll no longer be going to cinemas, restaurants and shops. Well done, Alexander Johnson!

But on the other hand there are many of us who havent gone to cinemas, resturants and shops in recent months due to the entry requirements, track and trace apps etc and associated hassle so it'll balance back out

@Suranjeep You honestly haven't gone back to cinemas and restaurants already just because you have to give your name and number?!

unim, I completely agree that this government has handled things spectacularly badly. But we are where we are so we have to have a plan for going forward from here, not from some imaginary position we might have been in if we had a competent government.

It would be interesting to see an age profile of the current cases and also to have some feedback on percentages of serious/moderate/ mild illness or assymptomatic .

I suspect a certain percentage of current cases are either very mild or have no symptoms and without the increased testing we now have these cases wouldn't have registered . I think we've only had the Lat Flow tests since the beginning of this year , there was no widespread testing without symptoms even last Autumn .

Also it was never said that vaccinations 100% stopped people catching Covid, just that they stopped people becoming seriously ill, and that was never 100% either , so although it is horrible for the people who do still become seriously ill after being double vaccinated, that was always going to be the case for a small number of people.

I am conflicted on the full re-opening . I certainly get the point that summer is the best time to do this, but would personally feel more comfortable if the face mask rule remained in places where distancing isn't possible.

@4forkssake

4forkssake There have been approximately 5 million cases to date & for ease of maths, approx 500 days since this started. That equates to an average of 10k cases per day (yes we were supposed to have peaks & troughs but that's the average). That's with no one jabbed for at least 10 of those months. And it's also not including any false positives, of which there were probably many, as the PCR wasn't run on the correct cycle, so the 5 million is probably a stretch.

So how on Earth are they predicting 100k cases per day during the summer months when a vast majority of the population have supposedly been jabbed?


Hmmm. Could it be because there were restrictions in place to prevent the spread???

So you really believe that cases could increase 10 fold now or do you think it's a bit of scare mongering?

Only 49.68% of people have been fully vaccinated against covid in the UK and a further 17% have been partially vaccinated. This leaves a pool of 21 million people who have no protection by vaccination and a further 11 million who have the limited protection offered by 1 dose. In addition around 1 in 10 of those fully vaccinated (3 million) will not be protected. This leaves a total susceptible population of 35 million.

Of course a lot of these will be young people and may have antibodies however antibodies from natural infection do not last very long.

The r rate of delta is meant to be around 8 compared to 4 for alpha so it is easy to see how numbers can rapidly increase. Flu has an r rate of 1.3.

[quote unim]@Suranjeep You honestly haven't gone back to cinemas and restaurants already just because you have to give your name and number?![/quote]
and associated bullshit yes.

Wear a mask here but not there. Walk this way, step here dont order there etc etc

Not worth it.

His view is that we should keep Covid rates right down.

He has the luxury of only having to consider health, and isn’t considering the likelihood of be able to actually get rates down. Personal compliance is falling. You can shut down all the businesses you want (and to hell with those people who work in them) but if the majority of the population have had enough and are mixing in homes you’ve got no chance of lowering numbers.

@unim

There is no way that Chris Whitty is fully on board with this strategy.

The SAME DAY that it was announced by Boris and Sajid, he gave a speech to the LGA in which he said:

"Fundamentally the two ways to prevent long Covid in my view are to keep Covid rates right down and make sure everyone is vaccinated so they get very mild disease and I think we really just need to push hell for leather for those two."

"The deaths from Covid I think are mercifully going to be much lower in this wave compared to the previous ones as a proportion of cases but long Covid remains, I think, a worry."

His view is that we should keep Covid rates right down.

That is not remotely in keeping with what was announced on the same day by Boris.

From the Standard:

"Professor Chris Whitty has told ministers they should prepare for a tough winter but has backed plans to ease restrictions on Terminus Day, according to a report.

The chief medical adviser reportedly told a Cabinet briefing on Monday that lockdown could be lifted on July 19 providing the rising Covid-19 cases didn’t lead to a spike in hospitalisations.

Whitty had been “cautiously optimistic” over lifting lockdown, another source told the newspaper.

“The view among the scientists was that we should get as much open this summer as possible before winter, which will be much more difficult,” a cabinet source at the meeting told The Times. “It was very encouraging.”

Other media are/were reporting the same thing.

Yes... and mask wearing/social distancing being scrapped. Bonkers. I do think it's time to relax the rules, but I still think that distancing and masks should remain. We're going from one extreme to another.

Government has just managed the messaging really badly. If they came out and said something like 'we know these steps are likely to continue to show an increase in positive cases, but we are now focusing on ensuring hospitalisation numbers remain low and controlled, as we move through to a more managed situation'

rather than 'freedom day!' nonsense.

My best friend is a bed manager in a large city Trust and the majority of their positives are incidental findings (usually admitted via A&E because unwell/injured with something else)

The actual numbers reported by actual sources don't bear this out.

I know that people will vulnerabilities will say this is unfair but rather than dripping it out for months or years then this gets a lot infected in one mass go

No, people with vulnerabilities will just see this as yet another example of them being treated as second class citizens with their rights and needs being ignored for the sake of some supposed wider benefit, for the apparent greater good.

It won't come as any surprise to them, it happened long before covid.