100,000 cases a day by August....bloody hell

[ssd]

We're all going to get it eventually it seems

@Tealightsandd

Negligent manslaughter aside, there's going to be a lot of Long Covid disabled.

By the time the full extent of the Long Covid impact on health and economy is apparent, Boris will have done a Cameron. He won't stick around to face the consequences. Unfortunately for Long Covid patients, that option of just opting out won't be possible.

Nothing could be truer. He'll be off with his next bit of stuff by then.

@cushioncovers

What's the alternative though? You can't lock down society forever.

Agreed. There have always been diseases in circulation that may kill you if you are elderly or otherwise vulnerable - this isn't a new concept.

Now that the vaccine roll-out is nearly there, and the risk of the NHS being overwhelmed is no longer a major threat, we need to accept that living with it is the only way forwards.

It's herd immunity by catching it you get your third jab and it will inoculate children by proxy. It's the biggest gamble yet not without costs and consequences. The world is watching let's hope it works in the grand scheme of things. SAGE must have gone along with this given the demeanour of Whitty/Valance.

If people think it is going to get very bad very quickly then I would suggest the ones that are really worried stock up with supplies and get out for the way for a month and let it spread. Then when they emerge the vast majority of healthy fit people will have had it and got over it and have some immunity.

I know that people will vulnerabilities will say this is unfair but rather than dripping it out for months or years then this gets a lot infected in one mass go.

Moaning about it won't help at all. Taking responsibility for your own level of vulnerability or risk etc is the best way forward now.

@CrouchEndTiger12

Out of population of almost 70 million, 100000 cases that's what 0.14% of the population with covid. That's staggeringly low.

daily.....a lot more than you have quoted

@AlecTrevelyan006

Highest recorded number so far is 68,503 on 8 January. I’ll be surprised if it goes higher than that but even if it does it is largely irrelevant so long as the NHS does not become overwhelmed

But the NHS is already becoming overwhelmed - a number of hospitals are having to limit admissions. It's not just the number of patients, it's the NHS staff catching Covid or having to isolate, to say nothing of those who are just burnt out.

@loubylou1010

Honestly I'm past caring! I don't care how many people get it, I know several people that have it at the moment and all if them have symptoms of a mild cold. If you're more vulnerable and can't have the vaccine then I'm sorry it's up to you to keep yourself safe now, I'm not giving up any more of my freedom for other people.

You are very lucky that you know people who've had mild symptons. I know one who lost his life to it, it took my Uncle three months to get home as he had to go into a nursing home for recuperation, I know three who've had long covid. My SIl still having breathing problems, but nothing showing in tests. Even my 18 year DN said he felt absolutely awful.

And vulnerable people have to accept they keep themselves totally behind closed doors and have no quality of life now?

@cushioncovers

What's the alternative though? You can't lock down society forever.

Wearing a mask in a shop / social distancing / ventilation is not locking down. In fact, wearing a mask in a shop and ventilation in shops may prevent lockdown. January and now are not remotely comparable and it's disingenuous to suggest they are.

The alternative is to give a tiny fuck about the health of the population and children in particular like literally ANY OTHER COUNTRY IN THE WORLD.

WE are LITERALLY the only country adopting this approach. That alone should give people a tiny clue that our leaders do not have our best interests at heart.

Israel tried to open up and just reintroduced masks given the massive increase in cases (including in double vaccinated.)

Those who think we should live under restrictions indefinitely - what do you think the goal is here?

We will never achieve zero Covid, and diseases like this don't spontaneously die out.

Even New Zealand will never achieve zero Covid, because it'll still be there when they open up, and it will likely affect their vaccinated (but with no exposure to infection) population more badly than our vaccinated + high levels of exposure population.

It is unfortunate that the vulnerable will be badly affected by restrictions being lifted, but this was always going to have to happen at some point. It's not materially different from the pre-Covid situation (where a vulnerable person might be killed by e.g. flu that was circulating in the population). We have never locked down every winter to prevent flu, despite the fact that doing so would be likely to significantly reduce flu deaths among the vulnerable.

I wonder if they are planning on letting it rip (they've admitted it is a bit of an experiment themselves) in the hope that there is some immnuity built up by winter when the flu and other bugs that nobody got due to lockdown 2 / 3 will be prevalent. If the NHS only has to face the usual impact of flu, they will struggle but cope. if the NHS has to face flu patients and covid patients, we are looking at another lockdown?

@TheTallOakTrees

If people think it is going to get very bad very quickly then I would suggest the ones that are really worried stock up with supplies and get out for the way for a month and let it spread. Then when they emerge the vast majority of healthy fit people will have had it and got over it and have some immunity.

I know that people will vulnerabilities will say this is unfair but rather than dripping it out for months or years then this gets a lot infected in one mass go.

Moaning about it won't help at all. Taking responsibility for your own level of vulnerability or risk etc is the best way forward now.

This is one of the most ill-informed middle-class perspective 'I'm allright Jack' things I've read.

What about disabled children who need regular hospital visits? If covid levels are high, their chances of catching it in hospital are high.

What about the poorest living hand to mouth? They can't afford to just not go out to work for a month or two, and will be at very high risk if their employers scrap all mitigation.

Not everyone just has the ability to shut themselves away for a month or two.

If you agree with this, you should agree with scrapping all restrictions around driving too - no seatbelts, speed limits or bans on drink driving. Let it be down to 'personal responsibility' and people who don't like it don't have to drive.

The alternative is to give a tiny fuck about the health of the population and children in particular like literally ANY OTHER COUNTRY IN THE WORLD.

WE are LITERALLY the only country adopting this approach. That alone should give people a tiny clue that our leaders do not have our best interests at heart.

Yep. Soulless, inept sociopaths.

If we put to one side the issues of covid fatalities, long covid, hospital admissions etc. Why are we not talking about the economic cost of huge numbers of people being off work ill?

‘Mild’ Covid still had the capability to leave you actually being too ill to work/attend school for a number of days. There is an economic cost attached to this which in the past has been deemed significant enough to make headlines e.g. ‘today’s the day people are most likely to call in sick costing the economy £x’. I think that usually falls at the end of January?

Considering the speed this variant can spread I’m not sure that businesses are still going to be praising the governments strategy when they’re dealing with the possibility of losing a significant percentage of their staff for a couple of weeks and the harder to quantify footfall of customers who are just as susceptible to being ill and therefore not out and about. It’s not just a case of considering one company having an outbreak either, there’s a whole supply chain vulnerable to exactly the same issues.

Maybe this is all a welcome distraction from the supply chain issues caused by brexit, now we can just blame each other when people are off sick.

'Letting it rip' is essentially a philosophy very close to one where we should not have any state benefits or health and safety protections or employment protections because people should take 'personal responsibility'.

I really don't get these people who keep saying "what about cancer diagnoses/routine treatments etc."

If the hospitals are full of Covid patients and half the staff are off sick with even "mild" symptoms or self isolating then how the fuck do you think these routine treatments get done?

The point of controlling Covid as far as that is possible is partly to ensure the NHS still has capacity to deal with everything else.

It depends what you mean re live under restrictions.

I think masks on public transport are a good idea- because some vulnerable people have no choice but to go on public transport. We should keep public transport as safe as possible.

Medical staff are still going to be under restrictions at work, aren't they , wearing masks and PPE. So are dentists.

We are still in a pandemic, so what is the problem with a few things being a bit different accordingly?

Selfish, selfish, selfish! YOU may not know anyone whos had it badly, but I've lost friends and see friends with debilitating long Covid

I've had no sympathy on here when we were at the financial sharp end of lockdown, and even less about not being able to be vaccinated and my fears around that impact on my life.

It's had the consequence that, in turn, my sympathy for others has pretty much run out.

And I suspect this is the very clear long game. They're hoping the misinformation and media manipulation and focus on stupid things like how much people like masks will prevent most people looking to other countries and seeing what they've done, what their standard of living is. The UK is becoming somewhere that is good for disaster capitalists and the 1% and no-one else.

That's 1 million people isolating BEFORE the first ones are allowed back to work, not taking into account how well they feel at the end of isolation

Firstly, a peak of 100000 doesn’t mean that many per day for a sustained period of time, so your 1 million having covid is likely an exaggeration of the “worst case scenario” modelling.
Secondly, given that vaccination dramatically reduces symptoms many of those with covid won’t actually know they have it. The unvaccinated or partially vaccinated are primarily children and young people who also have fewer symptoms than average, so again may not know they have it. So they won’t be isolating.

Selfish, selfish, selfish!

It really amazes me how many people blithely call others selfish whilst simultaneously expecting others to make sacrifices for them. We all have a responsibility towards each other - that includes those who are CEV having a responsibility towards fellow citizens who have already made huge sacrifices.

Ultimately, I’m in the “covid isn’t going to disappear” camp. We cannot continue restrictions indefinitely so it is a matter of deciding when to lift restrictions. I think summer is a sensible time.

Yes totally agree Cornettoninja - it's already affecting services in my local area with bin collections being late/missed (and then the knock on effect that seems to continue for weeks as they are catching up). I expect a lot more of things like that in the coming months.

@IrmaFayLear And “this is all Boris’s fault” invective: of course the govt have made mistakes, but really there’s only one place to lay blame. Whether you believe it’s bat or lab, this whole terrible saga started in China and it seems they have sailed on from it absolutely scot free.

England could have close its borders and not permit anyone to fly, drive or sail to our shores. It’s not China’s fault. Society in many East Asian countries are back to normal.

People with the virus were able to freely come into the country. This includes MPs and friends who were able to fly out on luxurious holidays and second homes. The gov decided to wreak havoc on society and mess with us psychologically (mental health), physically (no medical appointments) and financially. MPs and medical advisors gave generous contracts to their friends and earned loads of money through shares. They benefited from this.

It's getting on my nerves, all these references to 'opening up too early', to 'lifting all restrictions at once'. That is EXACTLY what hasn't happened. It's taken months and multiple steps that were all laid out at the start of this process. These are the last parts of opening up - where does this idea that we are doing it too quickly or all at once come from?! It is demonstrably incorrect.

@AlecTrevelyan006

It's getting on my nerves, all these references to 'opening up too early', to 'lifting all restrictions at once'. That is EXACTLY what hasn't happened. It's taken months and multiple steps that were all laid out at the start of this process. These are the last parts of opening up - where does this idea that we are doing it too quickly or all at once come from?! It is demonstrably incorrect.

Yes I agree ditto letting it rip which makes my teeth itch

There have been approximately 5 million cases to date & for ease of maths, approx 500 days since this started. That equates to an average of 10k cases per day (yes we were supposed to have peaks & troughs but that's the average). That's with no one jabbed for at least 10 of those months. And it's also not including any false positives, of which there were probably many, as the PCR wasn't run on the correct cycle, so the 5 million is probably a stretch.

So how on Earth are they predicting 100k cases per day during the summer months when a vast majority of the population have supposedly been jabbed?

I take covid seriously. I have had a close friend die of it - although he was in the most at risk category (having just had chemo), that does not remove the very real loss and pain.

However, the thing is, it is insanity to expect the virus to go away and disappear in some magical fairyland scenario where we get to zero cases. It's not children who are the mutation risk here. It's the rest of the world, people. The rest of the world is one big mixing pot for variants that will be with us for decades. UK schools are simply not that important in the bigger picture of virus evolution. As soon as we fully reopen travel - and we must, or risk becoming some sort of North Korea - plenty of variants will arrive. S. African variant. Brazil variant. What have you. Can't stop 'em. So we mitigate with vaccines, while accepting that the least vulnerable may catch it - and if so, so be it. Nobody seems to care about those in their 20s and 30s catching flu and spreading it, after all.

And it is childish to continue accusing government of 'not caring', when in fact apart from covid the gov't are worried about the long term effects of locking down and restrictions, i.e. joblessness and continued impacts on the young. It's easy to 'blame Boris' (and believe me I am no fan, and no fan of his predecessors either!) but the reality is it's all just finger-pointing, blaming, and powerless venting.