100,000 cases a day by August....bloody hell

[ssd]

We're all going to get it eventually it seems

@SofiaMichelle

And still no one has posted an answer to "what's the alternative?" Other than to retain social distancing and compulsory masks, which is totally unworkable.

Vast swathes of the economy rely on high numbers of people being in close proximity to operate.

Pubs/restaurants can't go on forever with severely reduced capacity due to extra spacing and no standing, plus extra staff costs due to 100% table service.

Businesses like manufacturers are suffering badly due to factory workers missing because of self-isolation due to contact track/trace rather than actual illness. That's completely unsustainable for some of my clients - they just can't turn a profit at 8%+ absence, which some are running at now.

We can't just keep waiting and waiting and waiting.

I'm not a blasé 'ignore the rules' type. I've stuck to the advice and regulations and have been vaccinated as soon as I could, etc, but surely we all see that we have to bite the bullet now.

Even Chris Whitty gives his personal approval to the plans on the grounds we really have little choice but to go for it now or wait until next spring/summer, by which time we would be well and truly fucked from all angles.

This.

@igelkott2021

I can understand why the government wants to open up the areas that are not already open like nightclubs and mass events. They can't keep supporting them forever. And although I am not in favour of vaccine passports generally, they could be useful for going to those sort of events.

But what I don't understand is why masks and social distancing are being removed. For the vast majority of us it is not a big deal to wear a mask when we pop into a shop or give people space (not liking it isn't a good enough reason to stop). And wearing masks on public transport could help us avoid flu and winter coughs and colds as well - win win I would have thought.

That's what I thought too. But I heard them say on the radio they were worried that people would take that to mean there was something inherently riskier about shops and public transport I'd like to be able to say they shouldn't assume the public's level of stupidity is the same as the current cabinet, but actually, DH just talked to his 46 yo brother and he and his wife apparently "haven't got round" to getting the vaccine yet so I don't know what the hell goes on in people's heads, obviously.

I'm surprised that people didnt think this was going to happen. It was never about making sure no one got covid.

It was making sure that the NHS didn't crumble and waiting for the vaccine roll out. Well, we are here. There is no magic wand that will make covid disappear. We are just going have to live with it and let it burn out - which it needs to do. We can not let our economy crumble anymore, we have to move forward.

Covid is not the top killer anymore. Infection rates do not equal deaths. People die of other things too.

Approx 1,500 die everyday in the U.K.

There was always going to come a point when the government allowed people to do their own risk assessments again, thank God, and when we recognised that herd immunity is the only ultimate goal, albeit made far easier to stomach through mass vaccination which will turn it into a relatively benign disease for the overwhelming majority.

Honestly I'm past caring! I don't care how many people get it, I know several people that have it at the moment and all if them have symptoms of a mild cold.
If you're more vulnerable and can't have the vaccine then I'm sorry it's up to you to keep yourself safe now, I'm not giving up any more of my freedom for other people.

I thoroughly agree with sofiaMichelle. There are so, so many posters calling for pubs/restaurants to be closed “because I don’t go to them” ergo they are not necessary. It’s the same every single thread. So utterly selfish and clueless about the economy. Oh yes, and there are those people high-handedly saying “lives before the economy” - do they not realise what generates money to pay for lives? And we should all Work From Home (apart from the schmucks who must deliver things to meeeeee).

@IrmaFayLear

Do people know what is happening in other countries? Apart from Australasia, the pinnacle of best covid practice as far as some MNetters are concerned - do you really believe that in European countries citizens are creeping around in hazmat suits and that people are not permitted to gather or dine out? In Rome last night there were giant celebrations.

And “this is all Boris’s fault” invective: of course the govt have made mistakes, but really there’s only one place to lay blame. Whether you believe it’s bat or lab, this whole terrible saga started in China and it seems they have sailed on from it absolutely scot free.

@IrmaFayLear Your last sentence is so unfortunately, annoyingly, disgracefully true. And a fact that has more or less been forgotten......

[quote Grellbunt]Masks would help if they were properly used and worn and FFP2 or higher standard.

More importantly, hospitals should be upgrading their PPE so that people stop catching it in bloody hospital when they are in for something entirely different!!! Can't believe the mess we are in with that. 18 months in and they've only just twigged?

www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/upgrading-ppe-for-staff-working-on-covid-19-wards-cut-hospital-acquired-infections-dramatically[/quote]
That article is about masks that reduce the risk of patients infecting staff on covid wards.

Remember, prior to the pandemic, there had been a government decision not to re-stock PPE stores in case of a pandemic. So some nurses ended up wearing bin bags (and catching covid) etc.

Hospitals are indoor settings where people remain for long periods of time, There is a risk of infection circulating therefore - that is why wards get split into covid and non covid wards.

It is very difficult to stop completely any cross infections of covid in hospitals because of the nature of this very infectious illness - It is not because people haven't twigged that this would be good. Though it is of course absolutely crucial to do whatever possible to minimize spread.

I have stopped suggesting solutions bcos I am out of solutions. Rock and hard place for the govt. Got everyone in my family vaccinated and will continue to mask in crowds and avoid large gatherings. Most likely to get it from 17 yr old DS who takes the Tube but not much I can do about that. So onwards.

[quote LawnFever]Reporting numbers is not scaremongering. It's factual. It's literally the reality of what's happened on a particular day

It's no more scaremongering than the days weather or how many births there were.

Reporting just the number of cases alone doesn’t give a true picture, they should be reporting the number of hospitalisations which gives a more useful idea of how many people are actually very ill.

Cases are rising but hospitalisations are dropping because of the vaccine, so the number of cases alone isn’t a useful piece of information unless it’s in context.

Useful info here,

Fewer than one in 1,000 infections is now leading to a death - compared with one in 60 last winter.
www.bbc.com/news/health-57694918[/quote]
Agreed. But in addition they should also distinguish between the number of people in hospital because they have Covid, and the number who are in hospital with something else and test positive for Covid.

And what of the people who's cancer was missed or treatment delayed, heart surgery cancelled, etc etc etc

Services for these had opened more fully and in some areas back to normal, starting to deal with the backlog. Removing more restrictions now will lead to more Covid hospitalisations and these services will be pulled once again.

@IrmaFayLear Spot on.
I feel the stay locked down forever lot are not those who have been going out to work through all of this.
Exactly what are we waiting for if it isn't the vaccines? Mutations will always be a possibility. In fact it's what will eventually get rid of this thing.
Flu kills thousands every year but we don't worry about it. I'm not saying Covid is like flu or that previous restrictions were unnecessary but there has to be an end point.
It's easy to say 'wear a mask for 10 minutes in a supermarket'. Would you feel the same about doing a 10 hour shift in one in the middle of the summer?
And all this 'lets be like New Zealand'. Why exactly are vaccinations a golden bullet for them that mean they will just be able to come out unscathed but will 'rip through' our much more exposed population. I don't get the logic. We either have to go through this at some stage or we don't, it can't be both.
What we need to start seeing is how hospital numbers are affected by those in as a result of covid rather than who have covid. That is the figure that really matters.
It must be horrible to be clinically vulnerable but surely it is better to get this over with now while you can be outside in the summer months? The more of the rest of the population who have it before winter the more protected those people are as it keeps reducing the pool of available hosts.
The figures show an increase everywhere but the most affected aren't continuing to mushroom. Spreading this out evenly is best for the health service

@Raskolnikov84 '
How unwell are they (out of interest)?'

3 bed ridden, one up and about but feels like she has rough flu. All feel pretty bad, but not, it seems, so ill they won't be okay in a few days.

and the number who are in hospital with something else and test positive for Covid.

This number will be very low. Unless you are going in for emergency treatment, if you test positive for Covid prior to having a routine procedure, they cancel it.

It's such a tough spot and it saddens me how polarised it makes everyone.

Rampant infections, even with low hospitilisations and deaths, is a risk because of the increased chances for mutation to something more dangerous, including something vaccine resistent.

Those who are vulnerable should have been vaccinated by now (those that can be, which obviously does not include vulnerable children) but if a variant evolves that has symtoms not so controlled by the vaccine they are back to being at risk. 'The vulnerable' is a very large group of people.

However, the impact of lockdowns on many in society is equally unpalatable and you'd have to take a narrow view not to see that the loss of homes and livlihoods also has real health and life expectancy impacts for those imapcted like that.

The costs to children and teenagers is also awful - such disruption to their education and lives.

Sometimes I feel like the only person who has not idea what's for the best...

I can see people wanting ‘more freedom’ to go to football matches or concerts but it depends on what sort of lifestyle you lead whether certain things affect you. Personally I don’t go to night clubs anymore anyway so for me they aren’t a big deal or loss of my ‘freedom’. We haven’t been in a lockdown the last few months compared to what we have before and what other countries are still having. I respect that other people want to go to these big events and think they should be able to open up again. This is ‘personal responsibility’ whether people want to attend it or not, of course the increase in numbers might affect the wider population after. Im in Scotland and every single person I know who went to the Scotland vs England game came back with covid last month. What I don’t understand is the mask thing though. Are masks such a huge inconvenience to those who want their freedom that it’s worth vulnerable people having no life at all? They won’t even be able to go into a shop without it being a huge risk ☹️ Having cancer or a serious illness must be bad enough (especially for children) without being completely limited that you really can’t go anywhere safely. We shouldn’t have the attitude of ‘oh well they can just die because it can’t go on forever and I don’t want to wear a mask’ 🤦🏼‍♀️ If Australia took this approach they’d just open the borders and let it take over their country. Instead they’re managing to control it to live a normal life almost

It's all very well people saying 'we have to get back to normal because of the economy'. But 100,000 cases expected (and accepted by Javid) every day will impact the economy big time.

100,000 cases is 100,000 people, the vast majority of whom will be working age. Those over retirement age will probably take a view to get out and about at quieter times if they can. I work part time and I'm certainly not going to go to the shops etc at the weekends if I don't have to. I have that luxury. If you work full time you'll have little choice about when you hit the shops, go to the pub, meet friends for a coffee.

Those who catch it can't go to work for 10 days. That's 1 million people isolating BEFORE the first ones are allowed back to work, not taking into account how well they feel at the end of isolation. That's 1 million people who can't leave their homes every 10 days some of whom will need some additional help - single parents with young children to get to school and feed, those living alone or who need medication - not even allowing for those who will need hospital help. But, of course, some of those isolating will be the ones who could have provided the help. The GPs, surgery staff, pharmacy staff, supermarket delivery drivers who could bring an emergency supply of food round. Carry that through to transport, delivery drivers, factory workers and we're in for a hard summer.

Business owners will, unfortunately, have to take the chance with this opening up. With all the restrictions taken away they're leaving their workers in a position where they can catch Covid and if they do, the business will have to take the hit when they're off sick (hopefully paid sick leave - another cost for the business). But Boris will be able to say 'well, it needed to be done and it's your responsibility to keep your staff safe so there you go'.

And talking about hospitals. Inverness Hospital is now on a rare 'code black' which means everything but cancer, urgent and some other out patients cancelled and non urgent ops cancelled. They have rising Covid cases but also staff in isolation. Because, as we'll discover in the coming weeks, when a member of staff falls ill there isn't a person stepping up to take their place. This isn't a game of Fortnite when you can re-spawn a character. If our lorry drivers, bus/train drivers, factory workers, NHS staff etc are hit with this there aren't people 'spares' and there will be closures of business and facilities for a couple of weeks, potentially rolling closures if different staff subsequently fall ill in the same business.

I understand that people want their 'freedom' but unless we're all sensible that freedom will disappear fast through the sheer numbers isolating. We need community responsibility now, not personal responsibility and the message has to be 'think what your actions are doing to the person next to you' for a few months.

I am in Wales. so the lifting of restrictions doesn't apply here yet. I hope our government keeps masks, I have a feeling it will.

I think Wales, Scotland and NI will lag a few weeks behind England in lifting all restrictions. Our governments can watch and learn. I just hope English tourists and other visitors will respect our rules when they come here.

If our lorry drivers, bus/train drivers, factory workers, NHS staff etc are hit with this there aren't people 'spares' and there will be closures of business and facilities for a couple of weeks, potentially rolling closures if different staff subsequently fall ill in the same business

Exactly. Some seem to think this is all about preventing deaths and hospitalisation.They forget about the potential impact of large numbers of people getting ill all at the same time.

@AlecTrevelyan006

Highest recorded number so far is 68,503 on 8 January. I’ll be surprised if it goes higher than that but even if it does it is largely irrelevant so long as the NHS does not become overwhelmed

It's very relevant to those of us who are vulnerable! Or had you forgotten that?

Also, don't forget that 100,000 a DAY over just 2 weeks is an additional 1.4 MILLION people. In that scenario, vulnerable people will have to shield themselves. Only it will be worse than last year, because no one else will be following the 'hands, face, space' rule this time around.

I hope the mathematical worst case modelling is incorrect but suspect there may indeed be real concerns as the government has thrown in the towel after being found out to be anything but on the (hand)job in recent months. Having spent billions of our tax payers monies enriching themselves and mates with doggy deals including unfit for purpose PPE using deliberately off audit personal emails when most required to save the lives of medics who died of Covid trying to save others in the initial months. The corruption has lead to a test track and trace system that is run by mates and relatives of the political ruling class elites and is now the de facto you must self isolate “lockdown” system. Only small issue being the fact that there is no mandatory obligation to own a new smartphone compatible with the App that does not work anyway. Indeed although many of us have multiple latest and greatest mobile smart devices, the elderly and by definition most vulnerable being pre mobile tech age may not even own or use any mobile smartphone device or if they do, only use for telephone and video calls.

We have allowed not only Indian but also Peru Lambda variants to mix with our homegrown Johnson/Cornwall variant to ensure we request our brilliant scientists to come up with new vaccines to beat the mutations versus vaccination race. This popularist government is only hanging on because of no effective political opposition as frankly who wants to be in charge of this once in a lifetime mess and won votes because of Brexit, vaccines and furlough which will be a medical war debt paid back over generations and decades.

Perhaps even that clown Johnson will finally say in a later podium press conference:

“Folks we got it wrong. The scientists are telling us that we need to stay at home again to protect our NHS and the most medically vulnerable. However we can’t afford to let the economy collapse so get a test and get back to work if you can but wear a mask keep testing to seek treatment if necessary. Sorry folks it’s not a u turn but there is no other choice as new variants are impacting all including children our future generations who we need to keep this great nation great. Bah, bah, bah a few choice words of latin perhaps even res ipsa loquitur or "the thing speaks for itself"!”

The messaging and media commz has all been pathetic through all of this!

Absolutely pathetic.

We should be able to quickly ease in and out of restrictions as and when needed. Not this sluggish, whiny and wingey... Rubbish.

@LondonJax

Precisely as you say. However some people are very short sighted with a view to the economy. The UK has done the worst economy-wise out of all the countries in Europe - also has the highest death rate.

@loubylou1010

Honestly I'm past caring! I don't care how many people get it, I know several people that have it at the moment and all if them have symptoms of a mild cold. If you're more vulnerable and can't have the vaccine then I'm sorry it's up to you to keep yourself safe now, I'm not giving up any more of my freedom for other people.

Selfish, selfish, selfish! YOU may not know anyone whos had it badly, but I've lost friends and see friends with debilitating long Covid.

So your 'freedom' is worth more than my life? Thanks.