Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th June

[boys3]

UK govt press conferences Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Does it matter if cases are high when majority of folk are vaccinated?

I thought one of the main issues was high cases 'encourage' more mutations. And the endgame might be a mutation that gets though the vaccine , or attacks children more, for example. By allowing cases to run at a high, we leave ourselves wide open to that risk?

@NannyAndJohn

Doubling time update: 9.2 days.

7 day average - 16612

7 day average one week ago - 9778

Doubling time in weeks = 1/log2(16612/9778) = 1.31 = 9.2 days.

So 91000 cases by 16th July means we'll be well over 100000 by "freedom day".

Fuck.

That’s the most fake disingenuous ‘Fuck’ I’ve ever seen. And I’ve had my fair share…

@Horehound

Does it matter if cases are high when majority of folk are vaccinated?

Yes.

More cases = more chances of mutations occurring

More cases = higher risk for CV ECV people catching it whom vaccine may not be effective

@Horehound

Does it matter if cases are high when majority of folk are vaccinated?

I think it does, because of the fact that vaccines are not 100% effective.

Say my elderly parents (economically active, in fact my 82 year old father still works full time). They are almost certain to have mounted a less good immune response to the vaccine than younger people.

This does not matter too much if there are only a thousand cases in the country, which we were on track for just a few weeks ago. If they travel, shop, visit, meet, the are very unlikely to come into contact with an infectious person.

However, if there are many tens of thousands of newly-infectious individuals every day, then the likelihood of less-immune vaccinated people coming into contact with them becomes much greater, and thus the number who become ill despite vaccination will be larger.

Mutations tend to be less severe though and we have been vaccinated. I'm optimistic the vaccine will work for a good few variants happy to have boosters etc if required.

I personally think we will not see anything like what happened last year/start of this year.

If you make enough "predictions" one is bound to be correct eventually...

@cantkeepawayforever ill- yes but severely ill/death's door type - I don't think it'll be much at all.
I'd be more worried about flu actually

Mutations tend to be less severe though : do they? You may well be right but I am calling for evidence on that!

@Horehound

Mutations tend to be less severe though and we have been vaccinated. I'm optimistic the vaccine will work for a good few variants happy to have boosters etc if required.

I personally think we will not see anything like what happened last year/start of this year.

Hasn't the idea that Coi will mutate to become less severe been challenged scientifically, though? There isn't a good reason why it should do so - in its current form it is extremely successful because it:

• Is infectious before symptoms appear
• Is pretty infectious, and mutating to become more so
• Doesn't kill its victims fast, and thus they have plenty of time to pass the infection on.

The 'diseases mutate to become less severe' model, IIRC, applies to those that kill their victims too fast, and thus aren't very successful at passing themselves on.

Diseases will become apparently less severe in their consequences once almost everyone carries some immunity to them, but that's different from actively mutating to become less severe.

[quote Horehound]@cantkeepawayforever ill- yes but severely ill/death's door type - I don't think it'll be much at all.
I'd be more worried about flu actually[/quote]
Given the percentages of deaths from Delta who have been double vaccinated, and are over 50, I am somewhat concerned about the ''elderly but in good health who would normally have been expected to live another decade', such as my parents.

@Piggywaspushed yes it is a known "thing". There are exceptions obviously but generally if a virus is more transmissible it tends to be less deadly. It's not in the virus' interest to kill off its host!
I used to work for GSK in a plant making vaccines but I can't be bothered to research and link, just Google it. I'm too Ill at the mo. (Not covid!!) My husband is an analytical chemist too :)

Do we have the evidence yet to say Delta is less severe?

I thought Alpha did end up more deadly and that was a mutation?

@Wakeupin2022

Do we have the evidence yet to say Delta is less severe?

I thought Alpha did end up more deadly and that was a mutation?

It was more deadly in the uk In Spain where I’m from not more people died from it than from any other variant when it became the main one

Given the percentages of deaths from Delta who have been double vaccinated, and are over 50
What is the % @cantkeepawayforever?

Up till June 7th, 30%, according to PHE data.

There may be something more up to date - I saw it on the BBC rolling news which is hard to search back in.

36% as of June 14th, again PHE.

No fully-vaccinated person under 50 has died from delta variant

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/25/no-fully-vaccinated-under-50-has-died-delta-variant/amp/

Splitting it up into over 50 and under 50 is hardly very detailed either. It actually fuelled 52 year old DH's anxiety.

Yes, which is the other way of flipping the same statistic - 36% of deaths have been double-vaccinated over 50s, none have been under 50s.

This is not wholly reassuring for the over 50s worrying about over 80 year old parents!

Similar link , not paywall
www.google.co.uk/amp/s/inews.co.uk/news/politics/zero-deaths-from-delta-variant-for-double-jabbed-under-50s-figures-show-1071527/amp

@cantkeepawayforever but that could be like 30% of 10 people rather than 30% of 10,000 people who would've died before.
I would need to see the data to understand it more tbh.

@Piggywaspushed

Splitting it up into over 50 and under 50 is hardly very detailed either. It actually fuelled 52 year old DH's anxiety.

I think they tried to find the highest age they could claim had no deaths below it, IYSWIM, to make a not-great news story sound more positive.

[quote Horehound]@cantkeepawayforever but that could be like 30% of 10 people rather than 30% of 10,000 people who would've died before.
I would need to see the data to understand it more tbh.[/quote]
26/73 to date.

www.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/jun/27/why-most-people-who-now-die-with-covid-have-been-vaccinated

Most of the deaths pre vaccination occurred in the over 60s because the risk level is much lower.

Vaccinations arent going to change this so the majority of deaths will still be in that age range and in the vaccinated. But just at a much lower level