Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th June

[boys3]

UK govt press conferences Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Posters have worked so hard on these threads and put so much effort in - to see it descending into anecdata, de-railing and people using it as a vehicle for their personal agendas must be so frustrating.

I apologise for reacting to that post.

I just felt (and Still do) that it was completely unnecessary.

patriarchy please let's not go back to the days where schools were not considered relevant data. We can't 'cancel' conversations on schools when the majority of outbreaks last week were in schools. Hopefully that counts as data!

Doubling time update: 9.2 days.

7 day average - 16612

7 day average one week ago - 9778

Doubling time in weeks = 1/log2(16612/9778) = 1.31 = 9.2 days.

So 91000 cases by 16th July means we'll be well over 100000 by "freedom day".

Fuck.

Data:
In several London boroughs for the last week of term in December, school attendance was below 25%, one had 17%:
schoolsweek.co.uk/pupil-absence-due-to-school-closures-almost-trebled-in-last-week-of-term/

The govt has announced it’s establishing 15 clinics to deal with Long Covid in children nationwide:
www.england.nhs.uk/2021/06/nhs-sets-up-specialist-young-peoples-services-in-100-million-long-covid-care-expansion/

I have noticed that all threads - yes even this one- get more frenzied and tetchy when something is in the offing: so rises in cases, roadmap key dates, spreads in certain groups . It's probably just a natural anxiety response.

But there are some posters who offer data - perhaps an interpretation of data many don't like, but definitely data and I don't like seeing them being frozen out , policed for posting (sure, commenting on the content of the post in a civil fashion is fine) or sniped at either.

The only thing that really derails this thread (and was evident when BCF left) is if people continue to engage or complain about posters they do not agree with.
There are no thread police, if you feel a post is no data just ignore don't try and censor. Equally ignore me, as I'm not the thread police, engaging only distracts from the excellent work posted by so many . (And boys3 especially with the graphs)

Nannyandjohn

100,000?! How can you say that without laughing

We didn’t even have that many in Feb when hardly anyone was vaccinated 🤣🤣

Maybe read the wise words of regulus , wata...

It is difficult to keep discussions on Covid in schools wholly data-based, simply because so very little good data has been collected - instead, public debate has been driven by assertion and obfuscation.

It is very frustrating, for those of us wanting to make points ABOUT schools that are factual, to be excluded because we cannot provide the hard date that might make them more acceptable here, because that data is not collected for us to use.

Should we ignore this part of the Covid picture because of the data issue? Or allow the debate to continue using such data as we do have, which unfortunately is often 'soft' or incomplete, due to poor data collection methodologies and abandoned studies?

There is an interesting phenomenon on some boards on MN where people say 'schools can't be closing, teachers/ children can't be ill' etc (someone literally once did a Boris and cried 'show me the bodies'!) because it's 'not in the papers' and 'it definitely would be'

I have recently seen in lots of online local papers a plea for information from the community on the situation in schools as they simply were not being allowed access to the information in any other way.

No piggy

People posting shit data which isn’t true need pulling up

It’s bullshit and they’re deliberately posting it

@Watapalava

Nannyandjohn

100,000?! How can you say that without laughing

We didn’t even have that many in Feb when hardly anyone was vaccinated 🤣🤣

We weren't dealing with Delta in February.

Delta is ~65% more transmissible than Alpha.

Cases do not matter

It’s bern mentioned today in HOC that they plan to shift focus on coming weeks

Public shouldn’t be so concerned with cases

@Watapalava

No piggy

People posting shit data which isn’t true need pulling up

It’s bullshit and they’re deliberately posting it

And then you give them what they want. Grey Rock. Which is what I shall be doing from now on, whilst the ongoing spats ruin the thread.

@Regulus

The only thing that really derails this thread (and was evident when BCF left) is if people continue to engage or complain about posters they do not agree with. There are no thread police, if you feel a post is no data just ignore don't try and censor. Equally ignore me, as I'm not the thread police, engaging only distracts from the excellent work posted by so many . (And boys3 especially with the graphs)

For what it's worth, from a lurker, I completely agree with this, thank you @Regulus for putting it so well.

@Watapalava

Cases do not matter

It’s bern mentioned today in HOC that they plan to shift focus on coming weeks

Public shouldn’t be so concerned with cases

when pretty much all the schools in the area have several year groups off - thousands of kids just locally - it seems very much to matter.

when pretty much all the schools in the area have several year groups off - thousands of kids just locally - it seems very much to matter.

Which is why the focus also needs to come away from isolating entire year groups etc and more towards using testing instead

@Watapalava

Cases do not matter

It’s bern mentioned today in HOC that they plan to shift focus on coming weeks

Public shouldn’t be so concerned with cases

But they do!

How many days of school missed?

How many work days missed?

How many holidays or reservations cancelled last minute?

How many people choosing to stay at home or only doing 'Covid safe' activities which means they are not spending the same amount of money.

How many trips into town that have not happened.

It goes on and on. I tried to stay away from hospitalizations and deaths, but we will begin to feel the economic impact of this high number of cases.

I rather liked the (perhaps now old fashioned) notion of the data/information/knowledge pyramid. To which some people add the pinnacle, wisdom. Focusing solely on data doesn’t get you very far, because data is always open to interpretation, and often incomplete and/or biased.
These threads are worthwhile, informative and generally far more reliable than any on Mumsnet or other social media where such things are discussed. They are started and posted on by many highly intelligent, expert and committed people, in good faith. But that doesn’t mean that there can’t be some collective tendency to ignore the bleeding obvious, which in this case, is the situation in schools and the way that those working in them have been ignored, and their concerns - derived from direct experience - diminished and disrespected.

@Itsprobablynotcominghome

Paltry 700k vaccinations over the weekend.

These large pop up centres are just photo opportunities.

I wouldn't call vaccinating 1% of the population in a weekend paltry.

But once legal restrictions go July isolations may stop

They’d be no need so all those things with lesson

No way will contact isolation stay

I’m in lancs and here every adult I know who has had to isolate has been contacted by T&T to do daily tests and forgo isolation

Outside of the separate and rather intractable issue of primary schools, I only know of 'whole year groups' isolating where there have been multiple cases, so many that contact tracing has become too complex. And yet politicians and newspapers parrot this. In fact, in my school PCR testing was brought in as an alternative to a year group closure after 9 cases. But not everyone consented.

I have never heard of a secondary year group closing on one case : and yet the media reports this as if it is frequent. PHE made us get to 12 before our year 12 went.

Born you are very wise.

To what extent will people modify their own behaviour if cases remain very high, though?

There may be no point in opening things up if the people who would make them economically viable simply choose not to attend - because cases DO matter in terms of public perception and behaviour. Will those wfh return to working in crowded offices via crowded public transport and bring city centre businesses alive if cases are very higg?