Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th June

[boys3]

UK govt press conferences Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Thanks wintertravel - I missed my Friday evening read!

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/07/age-sex-vaccine-dose-chronic-illness-insight-into-risk-factors-for-severe-covid-is-growing

An interesting read about risks.

Have just started a thread on this but will post here as well:

“JOHN SNOW MEMORANDUM
EMERGENCY SUMMIT AGAINST MASS INFECTION
THURSDAY 8th JULY, 10:00 am

We are holding an emergency summit to outline our concerns about the UK government’s current strategy to abandon most restrictions in England on the 19th July in the midst of a surging pandemic. We have outlined our concerns in a letter to The Lancet (embargoed until 23.30hrs UK time on Wednesday 7 July 2021), now signed by more than 120 of the world's leading scientists. At the summit we will outline our grave concerns about the UK government’s dangerous and reckless strategy, and the urgent steps we need to take to protect the public.

PROGRAMME

Statement from Scientists and Medical Doctors
Professor Trish Greenhalgh, Professor of Primary Care Health Sciences, Medical Sciences Division, University of Oxford
Dr. Richard Horton, Editor-in-Chief of The Lancet
Professor Kailash Chand, Honorary Vice President of the British Medical Association and former deputy chair of the BMA
Dr. Deepti Gurdasani, Clinical Epidemiologist and Senior Lecturer in Machine Learning, Queen Mary University of London

Q&A session
Panel will include all speakers and:
Dr. Rachel Clarke, NHS palliative care doctor and author
Sir David King, former Chief Scientific adviser and chair of Independent SAGE
Professor Susan Michie, Professor of Health Psychology, University College London and member of Independent SAGE
Caroline Lucas, MP, Former Leader of the Green Party of England and Wales
Richard Burgon, MP, Labour MP for Leeds East
Debbie Abrahams, MP, Labour MP for Oldham East and Saddleworth
Philippa Whitford, MP, Scottish National Party MP for Central Ayrshire
Barbara Keeley, MP, Labour MP for Worsley and Eccles South

This event will be livestreamed at: and on Twitter at @allthecitizens.

We will be taking questions from the press and public. Please contact us at [email protected] if you'd like to ask a question.

Please join us at 10am tomorrow“

Thank you @amicissimma

England's Euro 2020 progress could be behind infections rising faster among men than women in the past two weeks, Imperial College London data suggests.
The React study, which tested more than 47,000 volunteers across England between 24 June and 5 July, confirms a "substantial third wave of infections".
And the men were 30% more likely than the women to test positive for Covid.

The infections had not translated into a large number of people in hospital or dying, however, the study found.
And vaccinated men and women were much less likely than others to catch the virus.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57754938

People aren’t really talking about the vaccination gap between men and women, although they are talking a lot about the ethnicity vaccination gap.

Just as nobody talked much about the Covid mortality gap by sex, which is not dissimilar in size to the race/obesity gap in some groups. I saw a fair number of relatively young women on here with asthma or moderate obesity absolutely paranoid about their Covid risk but blithely unconcerned about their husbands who were probably at equal or higher risk. (This was before the sex discrepancy in Long Covid rates started to crop up).

I don’t know whether it’s a deliberate choice - if you emphasise that women are more likely to be vaccinated then men does it become a self-fulfilling prophecy? And why such a different approach to BAME people where people have been agonising about it all over the papers? (I think I probably do know the answer to that one).

My suspicion is that the well publicised vaccination centres in football stadiums with free tours while you’re there are an attempt to attract men without explicitly saying that we have a men problem.

To bring it back to the actual topic (sorry) - I saw a great demographic pyramid diagram showing vaccination rates by age and sex but now can’t find it again. Does anyone have a copy?

@herecomesthsun

from the Guardian

Update on COVID hospital admissions in England.

Admissions are still accelerating, with 416 reported today.

The 7-day average is 335 - up 57% in the last week. Implied doubling time is 11 days. 1/6

here

This is concerning isn't it? There have been lots of posters on here saying percentage increases don't matter because the base number is so low and that people have been worrying unnecessarily, but these hospitalisation are from people that have caught it before further relaxations, before Wimbledon was full capacity, before the euro semis.

@bordois has posted this in another thread

sorry pressed enter too soon. last time we hit 25-30k cases/day in December, the status of the hospitals/deaths vs now

@EasterIssland

sorry pressed enter too soon. last time we hit 25-30k cases/day in December, the status of the hospitals/deaths vs now

That is definitely great news but from a selfish perspective I'm not as concerned about deaths as I am hospital admissions,

Re: hospital admissions - based on the Warwick modelling, we should be expecting to see somewhere between 1,000 and 2,000 of daily hospital admissions at the peak (with the mid case of around 1,500). This is England only. Most independent modellers (twitter enthusiasts) seem to agree with the ballpark range.

Here are some (fairly typical) thoughts from one of the modellers on twitter (@andrew_lilico):

1k hospitalisations/day: Fairly likely
2k hospitalisations/day: Odds against but plausible
3k hospitalisations/day (Spring 2020 peak): Very unlikely
4k hospitalisations/day (Jan 2021 peak): Extremely unlikely
7k hospitalisations/day (NHS could be swamped): Almost inconceivable

twitter.com/ReicherStephen/status/1412386650571825154?s=19
This tweet seems very alarming regarding long Covid stats. Has anyone else come across this study?

Has anyone else come across this study?

Yes. The numbers in the REACT study are (i) self-reported, (ii) based on actual and suspected Covid cases and (iii) capture everyone who reported any symptom post 12 weeks from the actual/presumed infection. This includes mild fatigue and lingering coughs.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57584295

My view is that long Covid is clearly a very real problem but when people start referring to ridiculous numbers (15%, 37%, etc) they completely lose credibility. It reminds me of the "false positive" testing issue repeatedly raised by the other side of the aisle.

Zoe (Tim Spector's) study suggests that true long Covid cases account for 1-4% of infections (depending on the definition). I personally think it is a plausible number and it is significant enough for everyone to take the issue seriously.

Bloody hell Part the Whatever-th

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/08/new-zealand-children-falling-ill-in-high-numbers-due-to-covid-immunity-debt

So damned if they do and damned if they don't by the look of it - and it's the paediatric care units feeling the brunt of this one in NZ apparently. Scary.

@MrsRussell

Bloody hell Part the Whatever-th

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/08/new-zealand-children-falling-ill-in-high-numbers-due-to-covid-immunity-debt

So damned if they do and damned if they don't by the look of it - and it's the paediatric care units feeling the brunt of this one in NZ apparently. Scary.

Same thing is happening In England www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/society/2021/jun/25/ae-units-in-uk-report-rapid-rise-in-childrens-infections

I'd seen that one @EasterIssland but it's a slightly different reading - the inference of the UK one seems to be that parents are panicking and taking their children in with minor things, but the NZ one read a lot more frightening - healthcare units being overwhelmed due to numbers and young children requiring oxygen support due to RSV.

That is worrying. Plus lockdown was quite a while ago now for NZ

There's increasing concern among my colleagues about long Covid.

Some staff who were double jabbed who caught it recently are worried about their breathlessness (hopefully still too soon to judge) but another told me today she's still breathless from infection in October. Another is very fatigued still from jan.

And very sadly another's relative, a policeman who'd had one jab, early 30s, is still so poorly from infection at easter, hes due to go to a rehab.

Sitting here looking at the very high rates among younger people in the NE, especially the men who are both more likely to be going out and also less likely to be jabbed (apparently? Thought I'd seen sex related stats), it's hard not to be concerned about this aspect of the disease.

Thanks @EasterIssland and @MrsRussell.

I wouldn’t usually quote from an article but just in case anyone skims past and only takes in the headline but is concerned:

Dr Liz Whittaker, its infectious disease lead, said: “We’re not concerned by this rise in infections. They are not more serious or unusual. It’s just that they are all happening now, instead of over the winter months, as children begin mixing again.
“Children’s immune systems are strong and some will never get sick with these viruses. They are certainly no more susceptible than they were before lockdown. It’s more that some parents have lost a little confidence in their own judgment, and that’s not surprising. Their children are fine, they just need reassuring

I can just see everyone claiming to have long covid when symptoms could be anything even small issues that if you got without being in a pandemic you'd not think twice about. If you look up the symptoms it can include there's so many and are also related to other viruses or colds or pregnancy but yet everyone will claim long covid. NHS says even if you have it majority of folk will recover within 12 weeks. I don't really see what the big deal is?!

but when people start referring to ridiculous numbers (15%, 37%, etc) they completely lose credibility

If Long Covid was this prevalent then it would be millions of people in England alone already suffering, if it required hospital treatment, the hospitals would be closed due to it, we'd all know people debilitated by it. Which means either the prevalence or the seriousness are being overstated, there's not another option (well covid prevalence itself being way lower)

So the data on long covid simply doesn't meet any sort of smell test.

We cannot have any sensible conversations about long Covid without a clearer definition of what it is and decent data about who’s been affected.

This is interesting - it not only says that we need to properly delve into what it is as it is likely to be more than one thing but also that around 10% of sufferers still having symptoms is broadly in line with other viral and bacterial infections (which is what they think it is)

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01511-z

But I also think properly separating it out is helpful as well

Here is an article on long Covid from Tim Spector that I have found useful (and plausible):

covid.joinzoe.com/us-post/long-covid

I started ignoring long Covid posts from most of the zero Covid crowd. While I generally try to get diverse scientific views to form my own opinion, people like Deepti Gurdasani are too emotionally invested in the Covid debate and, as a result, too removed from the objective data and facts. I can no longer handle their rhetorics.

Thanks for that article which is genuinely balanced and helpful.