Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th June

[boys3]

UK govt press conferences Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Yes Catalonia is thinking of shutting down nightclubs (we havent opened yet) and testing for events over 500 (which we also currently do).
Portugal have similar in place currently to us although a curfew as well.

But actually @NannyandJohn why arent you saying they in exponential growth as well?

It does highlight though that the rest of Europe is just behind us with this (presumably due to the links we have with India we were just ahead) and the Delta is everywhere

Mandatory indoor masks in the Netherlands were removed last week, when social distancing can be followed. (I think the idea is that you wear them on public transport but not necessarily in the supermarket.)

It’s also worth taking into account vaccine take up / proportion when looking at restrictions

This means you can be further ahead on lifting or not

@NannyAndJohn

While seven out of those eight countries are doing the sensible thing and keeping restrictions in place, one of them is going to let it rip.

The UK stands out like a sore thumb yet again.

The UK is further along in its vaccination programme so is able to make bolder decisions.

I would be surprised if these countries did not want Delta to spread now, but they need it to be in a slightly more managed way for the next few weeks to get more vaccination coverage.

The though decision they have to make is when is the optimum time between vaccine coverage and the onset of winter.

The last few weeks has made me realise that we may actually be better being exposed to Delta earlier.

Don't get me wrong, the next few weeks are terrifying but Delta cannot be contained. We may just manage to let it spread enough over the next few months when our health should be at it greatest and when there are fewer illnesses about, without overwhelming the NHS.

If we don't let it spread, then we are in even more trouble than we already are in winter and the NHS will not be able to cope.

@wintertravel1980
Imho, this mentality of let it rip, now is better than later is creating a generation where a lot of ppl will be living with some form of chronic illness. (happy to see Dr. D. Gurdasani also making this point, so I guess I'm not so off base hopefully)

As someone living with a chronic condition for 20+ years I know all too well how disruptive it is and how much of a mental effort it takes to overcome the desperation. And the adjustments on a day to day basis can be tiring. (Eg. plan on something that you have to skip because you have a flare up. imagine this on a regular basis).
I'm not saying it

I'm not saying it is impossible, but if it's not a necessity I would not wish it upon anyone.

My other issue is that if we sacrifice lives/health for economy it is an arguable tradeoff. You can debate it, reason for/against.
But what I think is happening here is there is no tradeoff. Extremely high (ans avoidable) cases/deaths/LC + economy tanked more than it should have.

I don’t think LC deaths or within capacity hospitalisation does impact economy to any great extent.

It’s restrictions to stop the above that do that.

I really appreciated Patricks take below on economic hit meant to reply with a post but lost it all.

Thanks for that @boys3

@WarriorN

Thanks Boys.

Wow, south Tyneside has had a very sudden upward surge.

There are daily vax drop ins everywhere; both first and second. it's just actually quite hard to find out where they are. I found some online but many more sent via an email through work.

It could be messy data but Newcastle city council's page update showed a slowing of cases (but I really do think it's messy data.)

Not yet convinced about a slowing in Newcastle. Massive caveats around this of course however in last Tuesday’s dashboard Newcastle had 70 cases on day 1 of reporting for Monday 28 June.

Taking yesterday’s data release for day 1 reporting of Monday just gone, ie 5th July Newcastle has 124 cases.

Continuing that like for like comparison

North East region 1302 cases reported yesterday with a Monday 5th spec date, as compared with 538 at the same point last week.

In England 9111 as compared with 6268 where council geography confirmed, and in total 9122 (so 11 unallocated cases) vs 6277.

is creating a generation where a lot of ppl will be living with some form of chronic illness

The restrictions also cause this though, this is the problem, we don't have the data on the numbers, actual data on the impact of restrictions is hard to come by (as we'd never done them before) so we only have data on isolation for other reasons and that's really bad - but it is likely that the other reasons do make that isolation worse so you probably can't extend. We don't have the data on "long covid" either, a lot of the symptoms described are symptoms of isolation too, so we don't actually know for sure all are causational.

I disagree with that sirfred. I think there is a distinct set of long Covid symptoms that are distinguishable from those of isolation.

I think there is a distinct set of long Covid symptoms that are distinguishable from those of isolation

Certainly, but the stats we see on "long covid" lump all of them together when they say X percent, some of them overlap. I'm not denying long covid in the slightest (or any other post viral symptoms from other viruses)

Which LC symptoms are symptoms of isolation, out of interest?

Symptoms of long COVID: extreme tiredness (fatigue), shortness of breath, chest pain or tightness, problems with memory and concentration ("brain fog"), difficulty sleeping (insomnia), heart palpitations, dizziness, pins and needles.

I think at least half of these symptoms can also be associated with the mental health issues, anxiety, and depression, caused by isolation.

There are a few studies around, but whether you can decouple one set of symptoms from the other, and analyse the root cause, would be difficult, when most are self reported.

I live fairly near to a main road and all I can hear the past few days ( we are isolating so home all day ) is ambulance sirens. It feels exactly the same as when we were at the height of things in the first lock down last April. Anyone else noticed the same?

Hmmm BWJ, I am not sure 10 days isolation (even a few bouts of it) would have that effect (longer term) on anyone not already experiencing prior poor mental health?

I do know a few people who have been told they have long covid. They scan heart and lungs , take blood tests. The main things seems to be unusual breathlessness, reduced lung function and inflammation markers in blood tests.

@Babyroobs

I live fairly near to a main road and all I can hear the past few days ( we are isolating so home all day ) is ambulance sirens. It feels exactly the same as when we were at the height of things in the first lock down last April. Anyone else noticed the same?

What’s the status of the hospitals regarding COVID in your area. There is more out there than COVID

@BigWoollyJumpers

Symptoms of long COVID: extreme tiredness (fatigue), shortness of breath, chest pain or tightness, problems with memory and concentration ("brain fog"), difficulty sleeping (insomnia), heart palpitations, dizziness, pins and needles.

I think at least half of these symptoms can also be associated with the mental health issues, anxiety, and depression, caused by isolation.

There are a few studies around, but whether you can decouple one set of symptoms from the other, and analyse the root cause, would be difficult, when most are self reported.

I can say I’ve a few of those. And unless I’ve had asymptotic COVID I didnt know I had it Lately pins and needles quite often (which I’ve read some people post az have had it in another thread) but it can be a sign of other illnesses.

I am not sure 10 days isolation (even a few bouts of it) would have that effect

Are you being deliberately misleading on the 10days, I was in no shielding and doing absolutely as much as was legally possible, and I spent most of last year isolated from people.

Isolation is not 10 days at home occasionally, isolation is not being able to attend school, work, support networks, not able to meet friends, not having incidental meetings with strangers (the stereotype of the lonely pensioner talking for ages to the cashier) these are things which are linked to poor health outcomes, and very strongly linked to all of the mental symptoms.

Then we also have the physical effects of the same isolation, less or little exercise, little active travel etc. all of those can either cause physical symptoms or reduce the management of other chronic conditions that people have.

The short term full isolation is more heavily linked to an immediate drop in health markers (increased stress, lower vo2 kinetics) rather than the long term symptoms.

Not deliberately misleading; using it in the covid sense of isolation ,as I thought you were (ie the 10 days)

It seems you mean loneliness etc which indeed can make people ill : but it won't change their lungs. My friends had extensive medical test to diagnose long covid and rule out other stuff. I agree loneliness and isolation in your sense lead to poor health outcomes but there are certain surveys that also show some people thrived in lockdown.

There are also high reported levels of anxiety in teachers (recent Teacher Tapp and EPI surveys) and that certainly wasn't about staying at home and not coming into contact with people, so everything is complex.

@Piggywaspushed

Hmmm BWJ, I am not sure 10 days isolation (even a few bouts of it) would have that effect (longer term) on anyone not already experiencing prior poor mental health?

I do know a few people who have been told they have long covid. They scan heart and lungs , take blood tests. The main things seems to be unusual breathlessness, reduced lung function and inflammation markers in blood tests.

Sorry, I was taking isolation to mean the long term 18 months of social isolation we have experienced, not just 10 days for symptoms.

I do know a few people who have been told they have long covid. They scan heart and lungs , take blood tests. The main things seems to be unusual breathlessness, reduced lung function and inflammation markers in blood tests

Absolutely, and yes, these are long covid sufferers, with defined symptoms, like your friends. However, the data currently provided for the 1m+ long covid sufferers includes the main symptom of "fatigue" which is self reported and not exclusive to long covid.

@Babyroobs yes but I can't work out if I'm tuning in to it more! It feels like there's a lot of ambulances around at the mo.

I'm hearing of/ getting emails about small local businesses (eg cafes and bars) closing down for a few weeks, scouts/Cubs etc and holiday clubs seem to be hanging in the balance.

Due to no staff and poorly staff.

@boys, yes I think it's just the data they have on city council's updates/ graphs (twitter), which is further ahead of main dash board.

No sign of any slowing on the dashboard.

(They have incomplete data on theirs is what I mean.)