Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th June

[boys3]

UK govt press conferences Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I actually think cases still matter (with obvious caveats and nuances) and I strongly believe we should continue reporting daily numbers until we are through this wave

I am exceedingly glad that the cases have come at the same time as restrictions easing, if they'd been fully eased and then the wave came, I think the media narrative and the call for more restrictions would've been stronger. I am pretty surprised at how accepting people are of the cases, I was expecting more negativity and more restrictions on children, that so far seems to have been resisted.

I don't think testing at these extremes is warranted, it's too expensive in infrastructure and lost health from isolating etc., and makes no difference, we're accepting the cases we don't need to know about them any differently to the normal respiratory reports (ie test and monitor those needing medical attention)

@sirfredfredgeorge

I actually think cases still matter (with obvious caveats and nuances) and I strongly believe we should continue reporting daily numbers until we are through this wave

I am exceedingly glad that the cases have come at the same time as restrictions easing, if they'd been fully eased and then the wave came, I think the media narrative and the call for more restrictions would've been stronger. I am pretty surprised at how accepting people are of the cases, I was expecting more negativity and more restrictions on children, that so far seems to have been resisted.

I don't think testing at these extremes is warranted, it's too expensive in infrastructure and lost health from isolating etc., and makes no difference, we're accepting the cases we don't need to know about them any differently to the normal respiratory reports (ie test and monitor those needing medical attention)

I think deaths are what get most of the public to react and they are very low. Yes there’s a lag but on a comms level deaths have always been a tool for behaviour change and reaction.

Point on testing is interesting - something should change for children imo

I do think children are bearing the brunt in school isolation though. Which is not good

I'm still concerned about the increased potential for other new variants with increased cases though. I'd rather keep some caution, testing and isolation until September to reduce cases until the adult population have all been offered 2 vaccine doses.
I'd also be arguing for offering vaccines to at least 15 and 16 year olds as soon as we have the doses to do so.

As regards case reporting, word is that a number of NHS Trusts are preparing for another peak, possibly in August. It would be a shame to stop reporting figures just as we are approaching the peak of a wave. It depends how much you would prefer to have accurate information in that situation.

I'm still concerned about the increased potential for other new variants with increased cases though

The reason I don't think this is relevant is two fold.

Caring about variants coming from thousands of cases in the UK among non-vulnerable people is largely irrelevant when there are millions of cases elsewhere in the world including still more immunocompromised people (where everyone believes are more likely to lead to mutations)

And we're going to get those cases anyway, we simply do not have the vaccination numbers to get anywhere near herd immunity without infection. The under 12's are getting it.

As regards caution over restrictions, this is what the BMA are arguing

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57703959

"Some Covid measures should be kept in place in England beyond 19 July - [according to] The British Medical Association [which] is calling for the continued use of face masks and new ventilation standards.

It says it is crucial to protect the NHS, health and education amid what it says is an alarming rise in cases....

The number of people admitted to hospitals in England with Covid-19 has risen by 55% over the past week, the British Medical Association (BMA) says.

Dr Chaand Nagpaul, BMA council chairman, said the easing of restrictions was not a binary "all or nothing" decision and that "sensible, cautious measures" were still required.

He said: "As case numbers continue to rise at an alarming rate due to the rapid transmission of the Delta variant and an increase in people mixing with one another, it makes no sense to remove restrictions in their entirety in just over two weeks' time."

I would love to see a model of the impact of face masks in retail situations still continuing whilst pubs, restaurants, nightclubs, bingo, theatre, etc. are all fine.

The impact of masks was always contentious, and given all of the other places which are unmasked it strikes me as way too small to move the needle on the R rate.

It would only be relevant if there are people who are only doing retail - which I guess might exist, but I imagine those individuals are more likely to be retail only.

If we care about cases, we need to close pubs, not keep masks.

Took a while to find an article on this but no 10 did say this week that they will keep on publishing covid figures www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-declares-uk-live-24423584

@EducatingArti

I'm still concerned about the increased potential for other new variants with increased cases though. I'd rather keep some caution, testing and isolation until September to reduce cases until the adult population have all been offered 2 vaccine doses. I'd also be arguing for offering vaccines to at least 15 and 16 year olds as soon as we have the doses to do so.

I can't find the article now and hopefully am not misremembering, but I believe I read some time back that variants are more likely when individual people take a long time to recover from infection. If that's the case, then vaccinating the world's vulnerable is more important for variants and child infections aren't a problem (apart from the small number of individual kids who have lasting effects).

I agree with you that teenagers should have an option for those who want it.

(Sorry, cross posted due to trying to post while going up and down from DS, who was determined to get extra stories.)

"Caring about variants coming from thousands of cases in the UK among non-vulnerable people is largely irrelevant when there are millions of cases elsewhere in the world including still more immunocompromised people (where everyone believes are more likely to lead to mutations)"
I agree that we will still get new variants from abroad but we should do our best to prevent this also until as many people are vaccinated as possible. Then a new variant will have less impact ( even if it escapes the vaccine to some extent) than while many people are still not fully vaccinated.

SAGE members hypothesised multiple times that new variants are most likely to arise in immunocompromised individuals undergoing Covid antibody treatments.

The virus was relatively stable for 6 months (March to August 2020) and it started mutating at the same time across the globe with initial clusters often linked to hospitals. Mutations often occurred when community prevalence was relatively low (e.g. Kent in September 2020, Brazil and South Africa post their major waves, India in winter).

Will we benefit in the long term from our wave now? Has it hit at the right time?

If we manage to get through this without too much pressure on the NHS then we will be a fair bit forward in achieving herd immunity. If a lot of people who are vaccinates catch it (without hospitalisation or worse) then their immunity will be better than it is now.

It's also hitting us an advantageous time of year and may ease some of the pressures of winter (which is going to be tough).

@Wakeupin2022

Will we benefit in the long term from our wave now? Has it hit at the right time?

If we manage to get through this without too much pressure on the NHS then we will be a fair bit forward in achieving herd immunity. If a lot of people who are vaccinates catch it (without hospitalisation or worse) then their immunity will be better than it is now.

It's also hitting us an advantageous time of year and may ease some of the pressures of winter (which is going to be tough).

I was also thinking about it the other day

Have it now when there is people still to be vaccinated
Or have it in autumn when more people will be fully vaccinated but there will be other viruses

On case trajectory:

I do not think any of the models could have possibly taken into account how far England will get in the Euro Cup.

There must be quite a few super spreader events happening across the country as we speak.

There must be quite a few super spreader events happening across the country as we speak

I'm not so sure that there any is more pub going overall than there would be otherwise, it may even keep some groups at home rather than out having dinner with their non-football interested friends.

Why do people keep mentioning herd immunity?. I thought this was like flu and we can catch it numerous times??

@Lemonmelonsun

Why do people keep mentioning herd immunity?. I thought this was like flu and we can catch it numerous times??

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgin_soil_epidemic

As far as I understand it, anyway.

For those who say we need to live with Covid.... like Singapore and not announce our daily figures?
Singapore currently has 10 cases a day and has had a total of 36 deaths over the whole pandemic. There's also a highly restrictive entrance criteria. Singapore expats can't get back in to Singapore unless they have residency. Many expats can't, even if they've lived there for several years. There are massive border restrictions - no visitors are allowed in. The number of potential cases is being strongly controlled plus the vaccination rate is reasonable. Plus there is huge trust in the government.

Contrast this to the UK where we appear to be quietly accepting of going for herd immunity and a massive death rate over the course of the Pandemic. Plus highly porous borders and very few restrictions and currently large numbers of daily cases. Long Covid will be a huge issue down the line due to the sheer number of infections. I and many others have absolutely no faith in Boris and his government to do the right thing.

You still want us to be more like Singapore?

Savid Javid gives indication of direction in article today (won’t link as DM)

Yeah Fferny, Singapore seems now to be the new 'but Sweden'.

Fferny so what do you suggest? There is no longer the will to have any Covid restrictions. You can see it all over MN, all over Social Media, in the press, and from speaking to colleagues, family and friends.

Chris Witty said it right at the beginning. Lockdown is a blunt tool and you can't do it forever.

All eyes are on us at the moment. Case numbers are high but so far deaths / hospitalizations have not increased in the same way. We are not the o ly country that is thoroughly fed up.

Personally I am fine with what we have just now. I am not going to change my behaviour on 19th July . I will still wear mask and make sensible decisions of what we do / don't do and if we feel something is too busy for example, we will leave even if it's cost money.

I hear the odd negative voice on here about lifting restrictions, and how bad things are here, but what do they suggest is the alternative? And do they realise that Lockdown or further restrictions are no longer an option? They can be brought in but they won't be followed. They only work when they have the support of the population.

Hello lovely data peeps

Can anyone help me with why vaccination rates in Lambeth and Wandsworth are so low? First dose has been stuck in low 60’s for ages. I had wondered it it was due to them being ‘young’ boroughs but now the vaccine is open to all adults I had thought we’d make more progress.

There is a large collection on anti-vax tents on Clapham Common but in general locally I’d thought there was lots of supply and lots of support.. it’s frustrating as school bubbles are popping all over the place.

Several very fancy private schools have just closed early for the summer because of outbreaks. One had 52 cases (staff and children). I am just not sure how 'test instead of isolate' will work there in September : the whole press coverage does tend to suggest that there is only ever one to two cases per school/bubble. Where we still find large outbreaks like that , I still think we will have to see full year group closures, surely?

Interesting that it is expensive schools. Fear of parents asking for fee rebates has kept a lot of those schools still doing things that most state schools and LAs have avoided (eg shows, balls, sports days, tea parties in the case of that Edinburgh school).I think it's lose/lose for schools!

Personally I am fine with what we have just now. I am not going to change my behaviour on 19th July . I will still wear mask and make sensible decisions of what we do / don't do and if we feel something is too busy for example, we will leave even if it's cost money.

The difficulty is that in many situations we don't have a choice about the risks we have to run, and are not able to take the sensible decision that others are able to take.

I would like to have been able to wear a mask in my workplace this year - I have been explicitly forbidden from doing so.

I would like to have been able to socially distance - I cannot.

i would have liked there to be enough money to clean my workplace regularly - unfortunately, there was not enough money for this before the pandemic and there certainly isn't enough now.

I would like to have had some evidence that those symptomatic individuals with whom i share an enclosed space at very close quarters for 6 hours a day have at least had a negative test - I am not allowed to have that reassurance.

I would have liked to have been given some kind of vaccine priority, or at least been allowed a booster in the autumn, given that I work with, and will continue to work with, 32+ 100% unvaccinated people in close contact all day - that is not allowed either.

Yes, I could leave my job. However, I am very good at it, and most parents want a good education from a good teacher for their children, so I am not sure that you would necessarily want me to quit.