Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th June

[boys3]

UK govt press conferences Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

cant unfortunately your anger re situation in schools is 1/ not.going to change history 2/ is not going to change the general mood of the population.

I hope you have an uneventful next couple of weeks and then you enjoy a well earned 6 week break.

@Wakeupin2022

cant unfortunately your anger re situation in schools is 1/ not.going to change history 2/ is not going to change the general mood of the population.

I hope you have an uneventful next couple of weeks and then you enjoy a well earned 6 week break.

Thank you! It will be closer to a 2-3 week break, of course, as covid-related additional work commitments mean that much has been postponed to the holidays rather than it being physically possible to do it during term time.

However, it will still be very restful to be able to choose my own level of risk rather than the risk imposed upon me by others.

@Stircrazyschoolmum

Hello lovely data peeps

Can anyone help me with why vaccination rates in Lambeth and Wandsworth are so low? First dose has been stuck in low 60’s for ages. I had wondered it it was due to them being ‘young’ boroughs but now the vaccine is open to all adults I had thought we’d make more progress.

There is a large collection on anti-vax tents on Clapham Common but in general locally I’d thought there was lots of supply and lots of support.. it’s frustrating as school bubbles are popping all over the place.

I think it’s mostly demographics. Black Caribbean and Black African communities have a significantly higher level of vaccine hesitancy so I think that will be a factor, and the age make-up will still be having an impact - it takes a while for all the eighteen to twenty-five year olds to get around to booking in and the high numbers of under eighteens aren’t going anywhere.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthinequalities/bulletins/coronavirusandvaccinationratesinpeopleaged70yearsandoverbysociodemographiccharacteristicengland/8december2020to9may#coronavirus-and-vaccination-rates-data

Has anyone else noticed that for the last 2 days the weekly death rates have actually shown a decline rather than growth??
May just be a blip, but still a good sign after the percentage growth had been reducing over the last couple weeks.

Hello data peeps, may I ask a question... the daily rate of vaccination has been steadily decreasing since end May (7 day average of 595,00/day compared with 302,000/day now) , according to the figures on the govt Coronavirus Dashboard. It struck me as slightly odd given the rhetoric around the "vaccine race" but I assume this must be due to supply issues? Does anyone have any insights on what lies behind this data?

(Yes I noticed that Whatever - hopefully not a blip! )

In fact, we have more than enough supply for the first doses. However, what we have / will be receiving over coming weeks will not be sufficient to accelerate all the second doses of mRNA vaccines to under 8 weeks.

As a result, we are in a dilemma:

• We are running out of people whom we can vaccinate with AZ;
• The demand for first doses among younger people is pretty good but nowhere as exceptional as was seen in older groups. According to my vaccinator friend, there are also a lot of no-shows. This was one of the reasons why so many vaccines are now available though walk-in centres/"grab a jab" campaigns (rather than the traditional booking system);
• We are not in a position to accelerate second doses of Pfizer / Moderna on a mass scale (to under 8 weeks) since it may create pressure on the first doses.

Could not be part of the reason for.the rate of vaccinations reducing be simply the fact that there are now far fewer people to vaccinate?
We're up to 86% of the adult population having had their first, and even in their wildest dreams I don't think the ptb thought there would be such a high uptake.

Plus we're at the point now where they decided to bring the 50+ 2nd jabs forward so there were fewer first jabs.

I would imagine that unless they bring jabs even further forward (which may well happen, in fact I'm expecting it to happen as we get 90%+ first jabs), that it will be at about the same numbers for the next couple weeks until everyone (who wants one) has been jabbed.

twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1410989321394458629?s=19
Christina Pagel on why we should still do what we can to stop cases rising.

The one nation that has run out of people to vaccinate is Wales. They have managed to get the first doses to 89.7% of the adult population. I am wondering if they eventually manage to get to 90%. This will be brilliant!

England is currently at 85.8% so there should be some further runway. Unfortunately, the last few percent are always the hardest to reach.

If we had known we had exhausted demand we could have brought forward second doses of Pfizer/Moderna but we are not there yet.

I think it was Robert Jendrick who said on TV this morning there were 50,000 people from groups 1-9 who finally came forward for their 1st vaccine this past week. The unvaccinated cohort will include all the most resistant people so there just won't be the same demand now as there was when the booking first opened to each age group.

It’ll be interesting to see if rising case rates have an effect on the vaccine uptake. There was a lot of talk about risk vs benefit whilst cases were declining/low. I wonder how many people will reassess as that equation changes.

I’m not sure cases are on peoples minds. Deaths aren’t as so low.

I think we’re heading towards a more free version - where communications don’t try to force behaviour so much.

Maybe it’s more targeted at groups that are resistant - could be good

Graph of deaths from Oliver Johnson:
"Not quite certain where to truncate - have cut the last 3 days off only (in contrast to the dashboard which does more) so possible that later points will rise a bit still. But despite lag from cases (and vaccination effect of course) starting to rise now."

@lonelyplanet

Graph of deaths from Oliver Johnson: "Not quite certain where to truncate - have cut the last 3 days off only (in contrast to the dashboard which does more) so possible that later points will rise a bit still. But despite lag from cases (and vaccination effect of course) starting to rise now."

But the rise is still numerically very small, and over the last couple weeks flattened and last 2 days dropped. Not sure you can claim exponential rises when the numbers are this low, especially as, well harsh as it to say, on average 1600 people die every day and some of those may incidentally have testes positive in the last 20days

@wintertravel1980 - we're at 10 weeks + 1 day at the moment based on first jab timeframe, so still 2 weeks lag time in bringing forward to 8 weeks, and a small portion of second dose refusers. If there's a balance on first dose availability then maths can work out what could be offered, e.g. bringing timeline in to x weeks only for 30+ only.

According to my vaccinator friend, there are also a lot of no-shows

Do we know when Johnson&Johnson arrives, the "single dose" aspect would be a lot more attractive to people - those worried about taking the off work / away from childcare etc. or those just not bothered to queue might be keener for a single dose.

That’s true @MarshaBradyo, I don’t necessarily think it needs an awareness of case rates though simply experience of knowing of more people with it. It’s puts a different perspective on it when you’re seeing it happen around you and you know people with it compared to when case rates were low.

With only approximately 15% left of the adult population unvaccinated I wouldn’t expect to see a dramatic rise in numbers anyway, I was just musing.

I wonder how many people will reassess as that equation changes

Remember that also goes the other way, once you've already had it, the motivation for the vaccine goes down too.

Unexplained surge in Newcastle.

mobile.twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1411405854625218560

New Variant?

@Cornettoninja

That’s true *@MarshaBradyo*, I don’t necessarily think it needs an awareness of case rates though simply experience of knowing of more people with it. It’s puts a different perspective on it when you’re seeing it happen around you and you know people with it compared to when case rates were low.

With only approximately 15% left of the adult population unvaccinated I wouldn’t expect to see a dramatic rise in numbers anyway, I was just musing.

63% of adults are fully vaccinated. That's 37% plus children who aren't.

Unexplained surge in Newcastle.

I am not sure it is really "unexplained".

twitter.com/ArtySmokesPS/status/1411644855009386498

Warwick modelling predicted that the summer wave will impact North East the most.

@wintertravel1980

Unexplained surge in Newcastle.

I am not sure it is really "unexplained".

twitter.com/ArtySmokesPS/status/1411644855009386498

Warwick modelling predicted that the summer wave will impact North East the most.

The "unexplained" part comes because the surge is affecting adults 30+ rather than children and young adults like the rest of the country.

Very concerning.

One thing we’re good at is variant tracking.

Why would we miss it as a cause?

@lonelyplanet I was referring to the percentage of the adult population who are eligible to have a vaccine who’ve taken up the offer of their first dose. Having the first dose would suggest that the majority of those will have the second.

Why on earth would you go straight to a new vaccine resistant variant as a cause @NannyandJohn given if that were the case it would be spotted I think fairly quickly