Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th June

[boys3]

UK govt press conferences Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

There is some report today about Novavax and the problems the people that are on the trial are facing
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57650316

[quote EasterIssland]@Itsprobablynotcominghome a gp friend mentioned (so I’ve noe read it myself anywhere ) that the intake of teenagers in Israel is 5% so barely any young people have had the vaccines if that’s the case. Seems like they’ve been stuck for a long time in the same numbers hence why they’ve spares as nobody is taking the know[/quote]
This is how misinformation spreads. Easily checkable actual data never being fact checked by individuals or journos.
Not that I haven't done this myself. But I'm equally angry with myself as with others about this.

For data:
datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general?utm_source=go.gov.il&utm_medium=referral

10-19 yrs
First dose: 34%
2nd dose: 24%

Not stellar, but not bad.

From this really we don't know. What is teenager? from 12, or from 15?
And there is no more granular data.

Rather struggling in the NE. Newcastle council has said case rate is now 600. "New Covid capital." It's shot up so, so fast.

Vax rates also not quite as high as other areas.

Watching hospital rates.

www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/covid-infection-rate-every-postcode-20962706

Doesn't seem to be impacting hospitals too much as yet.

It's definitely impacting schools!

Hope you’re OK @WarriorN!

There have been more cases during the first three days of July than throughout the entirety of May.

That's exponential growth and the British government for you.

I would much rather cases decline naturally now than falsely decline because of restrictions.

@Chatterbox1987

I would much rather cases decline naturally now than falsely decline because of restrictions.

what if they grew naturally? That seems more likely in the first instance.

But, yes, it would be great if they declined naturally, of course.

Cases are one thing and no longer list important hospitalisation and then deaths are

Well actually hospital capacity

And what’s that looking like? Low but have looked for a while

Althouh Chatterbox probably said it better!

@herecomesthsun oh I fully expect them to keep rising for a few more weeks and as long as we keep below 5k in hospital I think we are fine (I think it would be hard to get anywhere near that number considering we have been under 2 k for months now even with rising infections).

A natural decline will indicate herd immunity and once that is reached we as a country are in the clear as long as a vaccine resistant strain doesn't break in.

I fully expect them to stop reporting cases after the 19th and we will have to seek them out as they are completely irrelevant now.

@NannyAndJohn

There have been more cases during the first three days of July than throughout the entirety of May.

That's exponential growth and the British government for you.

Of course they are going to be growing exponentially. Don’t think anyone rejects that idea. But it’s not the same increasing every 2 days / 6 or 20. Also as many people have said now it’s more important hospitals than cases.

Singapore is not going to report the numbers anymore. They’ve the hospital capacity and the right % of people vaccinated so are going to live with the virus. Can’t wait til the day boris says those words.

I think I'd find it more ominous not to have figures. The stats at least give an idea of how common the problem is. We really could have a situation of cases in 6 figures and almost no information about it; as someone who still is quite vulnerable that would make me more not less reluctant to take any risks.

I fully expect them to keep rising for a few more weeks and as long as we keep below 5k in hospital I think we are fine.

The number is likely to go over 5k but we should still be fine.

Here is the latest Warwick modelling:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/993358/s1288_Warwick_RoadMap_Step_4.pdf

Peak hospital admissions in the "base case" scenario are expected to reach roughly 1,300 per day in early August. This is still significantly lower than what we saw during the first two waves.

However, it is worth noting that we are currently running lower than the optimistic scenario (with the maximum of 800-900 daily admissions).

twitter.com/RP131/status/1411249708857757696

This is England only. Wales counts hospital admissions differently (nonsensically) so UK wide hospitalisation numbers make zero sense and should be ignored.

This thread is getting really unpleasant if anyone doesn't tow the line of "cases don't matter, it's all over".
It's a pity because all through people have interpreted data in different ways and been challenged but not ridiculed.

It’s also been free from ‘that’s the government for you’ type stuff. And has been better for it when people are rational and clear.

I keep saying the tone of the thread has changed Margaret and wholeheartedly agree with you. From a sociological perspective, I would suggest heightened anxieties as dates loom near push people more firmly into polarised positions which they defend in sometimes aggressive fashion. It's sad.

[quote Chatterbox1987]@herecomesthsun oh I fully expect them to keep rising for a few more weeks and as long as we keep below 5k in hospital I think we are fine (I think it would be hard to get anywhere near that number considering we have been under 2 k for months now even with rising infections).

A natural decline will indicate herd immunity and once that is reached we as a country are in the clear as long as a vaccine resistant strain doesn't break in.

I fully expect them to stop reporting cases after the 19th and we will have to seek them out as they are completely irrelevant now.[/quote]
Well, it partly depends on how quickly and to what degree immunity might decline after the second dose (in which case any herd immunity would not be permanent).

Also, there have been arguments that we can't get herd immunity without vaccinating children and we aren't poised to do that, as far asI can see.

Also the winter scenario will be affected by how covid and flu combine. There was little flu transmission last winter, helped by the staying in and masks.

The modelling (hypothetical as that is) includes quite gloomy potential winter scenarios.

But yes it would be great if it just tails off and doesn't reappear as a significant problem.

I feel pretty good actually and think things are looking better.

But I understand pp frustration over the same type of posts from other threads creeping in here.

50% of the poplulation fully vaccinated !
mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1411359677393391618

@MarshaBradyo

It’s also been free from ‘that’s the government for you’ type stuff. And has been better for it when people are rational and clear.

I don't think it has been clear from criticism of the government. There have been several times when people have criticised the actions taken, and discussed it on the threads.

I would agree that it is better when people are rational and clear. But I wouldn't say that the posts picking on other views are rational. They're clearly unpleasant though.

All through we have had people who have been inclined to interpret the data optimistically or pessimistically. Sometimes that's really irritating. But no one has gone out of their way to make it clear that certain people are unwelcome to post before.

And that's not right on a data thread. Because both views when backed up by data have their place and if we have one side pushing the others out then we don't get balanced discussion. Challenging with data is one thing. Name calling is another.

I've been on these threads under various names, but mostly lurking, since the beginning and they've been a great source of knowledge. It's a pity that a small subset of people are now determined to see the thread only follow their views.

I think we'd all love to think it will just trail away and never be heard of come September.

I actually think cases still matter (with obvious caveats and nuances) and I strongly believe we should continue reporting daily numbers until we are through this wave.

However when some posters keep repeating the same mantra without listening to counterarguments and alternative views, it eventually gets repetitive and...boring. We do know cases are growing exponentially, doubling every 9 days across England. We also know that in early hotspots (Bolton, Blackburn) growth has stalled so it is not unreasonable to expect that other local authorities may (eventually) follow the suit. We also know that all the models did forecast an "exit" (or "summer") wave - the very big question has always been its size.

I see it differently Margaret and I can see a few others do too.

I won’t be able to convince you though so I won’t bother trying. But yes the tone of some posts bring the rest of the site on here in a less than clear data way.

Fine to argue if you want to on cases but I find some approaches just like the rest of the coronavirus threads, divisive and agenda laden when they don’t need to be.