Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th June

[boys3]

UK govt press conferences Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

There will always be some people who are extremely high risk of dying, vaccinated or not, and whether its Covid or some other virus. I think that is very important now.

I am not necessarily worried about catching Covid if it's going to be mild disease for me (not long double jagged). Yes it inconvenient but probably no worse tha any other virus.

What I would like to know - this who are fully vaccinated and catch covid - what is their immunity like at the end of it and how long lasting is it?

Easter

I just came on to post that! Some people were claiming such stupid remarks few days ago

Almost all adults have had one dose so of course deaths will be in the vaccinated!

It’s the numbers saved that counts

Just had a look, the last time cases were rising and got to above 20k for 3 days running. It was the second week of December... at that time over 400 deaths a day were having in and over 2k daily hospital admissions... looking at that deaths have decreased 20-30fold and hospitalisations have decreased 10 fold.

If that's not showing that we are right to be opening up up I don't know what is...

@Chatterbox1987 in the interests of completeness you would also have to compare number of tests done (more tests = more cases) but otherwise I absolutely agree

I’m glad we delayed the 21/06 and think it was the right decision to get more vaccinations under our belt before going further. It’s clear now that vaccinations have made a massive difference, they may not be perfect but they can take over the jobs that a lot of restrictions were in place to do.

@Chatterbox1987

Just had a look, the last time cases were rising and got to above 20k for 3 days running. It was the second week of December... at that time over 400 deaths a day were having in and over 2k daily hospital admissions... looking at that deaths have decreased 20-30fold and hospitalisations have decreased 10 fold.

If that's not showing that we are right to be opening up up I don't know what is...

Deaths during that time would have come from November, as would hospitalisations.

You’d be better off comparing September to now, as it has come from a similar baseline.

Just delurking (thank you to the reasoned regulars on here!) to say that trials are now happening on mixing vaccines for a booster.
I have been invited to take part (although I seriously considered it, I have decided not to for several reasons) but University Hospital Southampton is studying the use of SEVEN different Covid vaccines when given as a booster.

They are inviting selected over 30s for the trial - people who had their initial jab Dec 20 - Feb 21 and a second jab 70 days or more after that. (I fit as I am CEV so had both early on but not so early I didn't have to wait 12 weeks for the second jab)

They are looking for 2886 participants (which seems like a very specific number!!) who will receive one of EIGHT jabs completely at random - seven of these are Covid jabs either currently used or in the process of being approved for UK use and the control (which is a menengitis / sepsis)

[quote Itsprobablynotcominghome]**@PrincessNutNuts

Currently 1 person in my local hospital with Covid (Addenbrokes). 0.37% of what we had during the January peak. There is some bandwidth.

This is just burning through the kids. It sucks for them, but ultimately it is expediting our way to a very high level of immunity.

I’ll start worrying when Addenbrookes reaches 80 patients. (1/3 of the Jan peak, like Bolton has seen). 79 to go.[/quote]
@PrincessNutNuts

You’ll be delighted to hear there has been a MEGA WHOPPING 300% increase in patients. Now at 3. Let’s see if we hit 9 patients next week!

77 to go until I hit the panic button.

@Itsprobablynotcominghome

no because deaths now will be from when cases a few weeks ago, just like December deaths were from November so it’s right to compare like for like when cases on the way up.

just like December deaths were from November so it’s right to compare like for like when cases on the way up

Remember you need to count for detection rates, are cases being detected at the same rate in the two situations, it's certainly my feeling that they are not (not least because the rules on testing have changed, and the radically different age profiles of cases)

So comparison should take that it into account - certainly with the age profiles of the detected cases in the last month and the detected cases in November are radically different, such that death rates from those cannot be compared at all.

It might be worth looking at the IFR's by age group and compare to the tests per age group for the two periods, the data is available on the data site, but I certainly don't believe it will show what you suggest it will show.

But the situation in December when we hit a run rate of say 20k/day by specimen date on 9th Dec was coming on off the back of only a
small dip in November where cases only went down to a low of a 7 day run rate of 14.5k; then an increase again - so the deaths in Dec were based on a much higher "starting point" some weeks before, not the situation we have now, where we are getting to the 20k/a day having got down to a 7 day average of under 2k before starting to rise again.

3 weeks before Dec 9th, we had a run rate of about 19k cases a day. 3 weeks before today, we had around 7k.

So looking at hospitalisations/deaths then v now is largely irrelevant for that reason alone, not to mention the added factors of delta and the vaccine!

Edinburgh rate now 585 per 100,000. Not as bad as Dundee at 788.2 per 100,000.
The only mainland council area doing well is Moray at 69.9. They had extra restrictions for a wee bit longer, as their rate was over 50, so were delayed moving into level 2. More importantly perhaps, there was a focus on getting anyone over the age of 18 vaccinated.
4234 positive results for Scotland. First time it's gone over 4000.

Perihelion I can only hope it will start to improve soon. Although hopefully lots of people are getting super immunity with few hospitalisations and deaths.

I do wonder though why there is still the Toers, especially on the mainland as some of the Tier 1 areas have higher rates than Tier 2.

@PatriciaHolm

But the situation in December when we hit a run rate of say 20k/day by specimen date on 9th Dec was coming on off the back of only a small dip in November where cases only went down to a low of a 7 day run rate of 14.5k; then an increase again - so the deaths in Dec were based on a much higher "starting point" some weeks before, not the situation we have now, where we are getting to the 20k/a day having got down to a 7 day average of under 2k before starting to rise again.

3 weeks before Dec 9th, we had a run rate of about 19k cases a day. 3 weeks before today, we had around 7k.

So looking at hospitalisations/deaths then v now is largely irrelevant for that reason alone, not to mention the added factors of delta and the vaccine!

While I agree its a hard comparison I think what we cam all agree on without a doubt is that the deaths line is not even close to following the cases line on graphs like it has previously done.

We have been hear now for about 7 weeks that we just need to wait another week to see if deaths rise.... 6 weeks later and they are still not significantly rising. At some point we have to just say that we're in as good a place as we can be right now and admit that the link is nearly completely broken.

[quote MRex]@Whichjab - best to stick with reputable sources. The third jab for AZ had very good results: amp.ft.com/content/c5297d58-ad6d-490f-89e0-74f9c13377e4.[/quote]
Your article was unfortunately behind a paywall.
I expect the article below is what whichjab is referring to. I would be interested to know how reputable the source is. It states the following:
"But the drawback with adenovirus-vectored vaccines, in general, is that one can get a maximum of two doses over a lifetime; any more than that and the immune system could generate neutralising antibodies to attack the vector, said Dr Kathryn Edwards, professor of paediatrics, Division of Infectious Diseases, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, Tennessee."

I would be interested to know if anyone knows more about this. It is beyond my scientific understanding.

www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/comment/covid-19-vaccines-antibodies-booster/

Chatterbox, that sounds wondeful!

Good news, are the optimists hopeful for winter also.
I am cautiously hopeful, I'm wondering how long the vaccines could last for...

@lonelyplanet - The actual study findings were the opposite to the speculation in your article. See this Reuters article on the same topic: www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/oxford-covid-vaccine-produces-strong-immune-response-booster-shot-study-2021-06-28/.

For any FT article BTW, Google the headline and it'll show you that article without a paywall.

Lonely planet..

Attacking the vector 🤣🤣🤣🤣😱😱😱.

Is this going to be the next gauntlet we are forced to run!!
Possibilities of being attacked by the vaccine but... It's a worth it 🤣.

[quote MRex]@lonelyplanet - The actual study findings were the opposite to the speculation in your article. See this Reuters article on the same topic: www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/oxford-covid-vaccine-produces-strong-immune-response-booster-shot-study-2021-06-28/.

For any FT article BTW, Google the headline and it'll show you that article without a paywall.[/quote]
Thank you for your helpful response.

@Lemonmelonsun

Lonely planet..

Attacking the vector 🤣🤣🤣🤣😱😱😱.

Is this going to be the next gauntlet we are forced to run!!
Possibilities of being attacked by the vaccine but... It's a worth it 🤣.

I posted because I was concerned about this and was asking for some help understanding it. On the face of it, the article appears to be in a scientific journal and written by doctors. I was hoping someone here with more knowledge could debunk it.Your response is unhelpful and is aimed at belittling and stifling discussion and is best suited on other threads, which I generally try to avoid.

@Perihelion

Edinburgh rate now 585 per 100,000. Not as bad as Dundee at 788.2 per 100,000. The only mainland council area doing well is Moray at 69.9. They had extra restrictions for a wee bit longer, as their rate was over 50, so were delayed moving into level 2. More importantly perhaps, there was a focus on getting anyone over the age of 18 vaccinated. 4234 positive results for Scotland. First time it's gone over 4000.

I'm starting to get a bit panicked about the situation in scotland now. The hospital cases in Tayside doubled yesterday. NHS grampian have reintroduced visiting restrictions to 1 named visitor per person to protect staff. There are headlines about track and trace not coping with the high case numbers, and the NHS struggling with the numbers of staff isolating.

A raft of businesses in a local small town have shut due to staff isolating, including one I visited last weekend.

At least the schools are off now. But how much higher can it go, and how far backwards will we need to move when scotgov loose their nerve and need to try to contain it? This level of disruption just doesn't seem sustainable.

On a selfish note, I'm due to go on holiday on Monday (within scotland), and worry about it being cancelled, due to either restrictions, staff isolating, or one of us needing to isolate. On a less selfish note, I look at the almost vertical line of cases on the scotland graph and I am horrified about what that means of the parts of the world with low vaccination rates.

I find myself holding my breath for the daily case stats every day again.

I’d love to put the high UK numbers down to our policy of saturation testing, but if I’m reading it correctly Scottish positivity rates are still 10% which is really high.
www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

@MRex

Bit of a change to CV rules; boosters for anyone who gets a flu jab (presumably not kids) www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57667987:

"More than 30 million of the most vulnerable should receive a third dose, vaccine experts are advising.

They will include all adults aged 50 and over, and anyone younger who qualifies for a flu jab."

I wonder how many non british born citizens are excluded from that list, like me. Don't think it's a huge number, but still frustrating. Wish there was an easy mechanism to make sure that conditions diagnosed in other countries are recognized. It looks to be up to the GP. And if someone is unlucky and has an ass for a GP then they will miss out. (ok, I know it's a marginal problem)

Delurking.

Scottish DS who lives in London but still registered with a Scottish gp got a vaccination at a walk in centre in London. Then he phoned to cancel his Scottish appointment. His vaccination was recorded at the Scottish end (and obviously the English end). I wonder if he'll be counted twice? It will certainly make the Scottish figures better by 1 person's worth.

(I have told him to register with a GP in London btw).

@mibbelucieachwell

Delurking.

Scottish DS who lives in London but still registered with a Scottish gp got a vaccination at a walk in centre in London. Then he phoned to cancel his Scottish appointment. His vaccination was recorded at the Scottish end (and obviously the English end). I wonder if he'll be counted twice? It will certainly make the Scottish figures better by 1 person's worth.

(I have told him to register with a GP in London btw).

I would hope not!

Unfortunately there seems to be no link between the 2 NHS's at times.

We have visited got Antibiotics a few times in Scotland and then had to contact our English GP to give them the details. And who knows if it's ever recorded.

@TheSunIsStillShining - if your GP isn't looking after your medical record then switch GP, it's very straightforward to do.