Is anyone else reassured by the death rates??

[ThornAmongstRoses]

Is it just me?

I feel so reassured about the fact that the death rates are staying so low.

Each death is obviously a tragedy, I’m not dismissing that, but the fact that 1000’s of lives aren’t being lost a day anymore is such a blessing for many families.

Cases are going up, as was always going to happen, but the death rate staying so low each day is such a relief.

I’m relieved the vaccines must be working and I’m so happy for the all the the families in society who are no longer being ripped apart by losing their loved ones to such a horrible virus.

Maybe it’s because the sun is shining very beautifully where I am, but I’m feeling very positive this morning

19 according to .gov

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom

@Gwenhwyfar

Actually i meant now, not what happened during the peaks.

The UK has super low numbers of beds nurses docs, even very modest increases which say France could cope with, will screw the NHS.

Until recently, i always thought the NHS was world class.

It's definitely a positive and a great step in the right direction. But it's not just deaths - it's hospital admissions. Okay, so lots of people who otherwise would have died now won't, but they may still need hospital treatment, and we could still be running the risk of overwhelming the NHS meaning other services suffer. Lives are definitely being saved by the vaccine, it's fantastic, but we'd be wrong to think that means it's over.

looks like both Italy and France have higher deaths than us -their daily average is around 50 a day.

But yet they’re opening up more and travelling? They also have much lower vaccination rates.

looks like both Italy and France have higher deaths than us -their daily average is around 50 a day.

Ah but I bet they have lower numbers of summer 'flu' and pneumonia (something often caused by...Covid).

Lateral flow is, as we all know, very inaccurate. But even PCR isn't super accurate. 30% of PCRs are false negatives.

Also, better treatments have led to more Covid patients taking longer than 28 days to die.

Then there's the fact that many apparently recovered Covid patients are discharged from hospital... but die within the next six months.

And of course, it's never been just about death. Long Covid is a huge issue. Potential heart, lung, kidney, and brain damage, diabetes, hearing loss.

I'd love genuinely good news but complacency and false reassurance is dangerous.

@Tealightsandd can you back any other of that up with reliable sources?

And if there really are quite a lot of deaths from flu (as opposed to misdiagnosed Covid) at a time of year when it's generally low - and when there's limited spread due to low prevalence worldwide, then I'd say we've got quite a lot to worry about. Bearing in mind that flu, unlike Covid, can be deadly for very young children. If we already have lots of flu floating around in the UK, we definitely need to take precautions.

[quote Poorlykitten]@Tealightsandd can you back any other of that up with reliable sources?[/quote]
The discharged apparently recovered patients?

www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n693

PCR tests false negatives.

www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n287/rr

m.timesofindia.com/city/mumbai/34-of-rat-results-false-negatives-reveals-study/amp_articleshow/83702481.cms

With Italy and France's flu deaths possibly being lower than ours right now. I said 'I bet'. Speculation on my part. I'm not claiming that as fact, and I could very well be wrong.

But definitely, with around 30%, so a sizeable proportion, of tests giving false negatives, it's not unreasonable to assume some of the deaths being recorded as flu or pneumonia are in actual fact Covid (particularly given that Covid frequency leads to pneumonia).

30% of tests are not false negatives. 30% of tests which should be positive get a negative result. That is a much smaller number. The way you are presenting it makes it sound like we should add another 30% onto daily case numbers.

From the article above.

34% of RAT results false negatives, reveals study

MUMBAI: An analysis of negative rapid antigen tests (RAT) that came positive when retested with RT-PCR has proved that RAT missed up to 33.7% cases.

What I'm saying is that, as around 30% of tests are false negatives, it's rational to assume that at least some of the deaths currently recorded as flu or pneumonia or sepsis are in fact Covid (and/or, in the case of pneumonia and sepsis, caused by Covid).

I think they should stop reporting cases now and only report hospital admissions and deaths.

@Workyticket

I think they should stop reporting cases now and only report hospital admissions and deaths.

Ah, censorship of news. Next up, 'disappearing' people (the scientists, maybe) and re-education camps?

As an alternative, perhaps they could start reporting the daily numbers of Long Covid cases.

Reporting deaths next to stats on deaths from cancer/ flu etc would help put things in to perspective.

Tealights stop posting bullshit scaremongering posts

Flue is not killing kids 'left right and centre' - it never has

from gov UK site winter 2018/19............

Fatal case reports from local health protection teams and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) were received for influenza-related deaths in children in England.
Provisional data shows that during the 2018 to 2019 winter influenza season between 1 October 2018 and up to 18 April 2019, 13 influenza-related fatal cases were reported in children aged between 0 to 17 years. There were 7 female and 6 male cases.
Information available shows that underlying medical conditions were reported from 10 of the 13 cases.

I don't know what your agenda is tealights but i've seen loads of your posts and you started off commenting lightly on stuff - you live in USA so not sure why you're so invested in what UK does.

Now you're just mumbling bullshit

You need banning off these threads as its clear you are trying to scaremonger

There wasn’t a flu season last year, or not one to speak of. Mainly due to schools being shut and social distancing measures.

Erm, I'm in the UK actually.

I've posted nothing but facts (including links to research, reports, and studies), or every so often my own views...on a discussion forum (and I've always made clear when I'm speculating).

Lots of banning being called for. The past week has seen posters want to shut up me, the Journalists (from reporting news), and the scientists.

@Watapalava

Are you suggesting I said flu was 'killing kids, left right and centre'?

You know that's not what I said.

I was simply pointing out that, for young children, flu is more of a concen than Covid.

That doesn't mean loads and loads of children will die of flu (in developed countries, at least). It just means it's more of a risk than Covid.

@Tealightsandd

Err - those 2 refs on PCR tests
The first is a letter written by someone to an editor. I could have written it. YOU could have written it - it's not a source!
The second is about false results from the Rapid tests - PCR are used as the "gold standard" in this paper!

PCR tests DO miss people - anyone who tests early on in their infection may not have sufficient virus on their sample. But the suggestion that a PCR could miss a true +ve that an LF detected is quite a remarkable claim and demands remarkable evidence - as opposed to none at all!

Btw it wasn't me that reported your deleted post.

The first is a letter written by someone to an editor. I could have written it

The letter was written by a doctor.

The second is about false results from the Rapid tests - PCR are used as the "gold standard" in this paper!

No. Read the article. It's about PCR tests.

They're still good, and you're right, they are the gold standard - the best tests we have (unless China's anal swabs do better?). They're generally pretty reliable. But they're not 100% accurate - up to 30% might be false negatives, and whilst there's no need to panic, it's simply something we do need to be mindful of.

People complained about China, trying to hide the situation when it started. But now they seem to want similar. Covering up facts, downplaying risks.

Is that what people want? I'm going to be busy tomorrow in RL so won't be posting much if at all...so good news for some of you!

I don't think anyone receiving treatment in hospital is tested just the once are they? So if they did receive a false negative then the chances of that happening again and again are neglible so perhaps the false negatives don't really feed into the important stats of hospital admissions and deaths?

And I also thought that if covid was the primary cause of death then it fed into the stats regardless of the number of days since first testing positive. So if you die of covid and it's over 28 days then you're a covid death stat regardless of the length of time.

Both flu and covid are a tiny risk to children so there's no point stating one is worse than the other when the difference is miniscule.