Is anyone else reassured by the death rates??

[ThornAmongstRoses]

Is it just me?

I feel so reassured about the fact that the death rates are staying so low.

Each death is obviously a tragedy, I’m not dismissing that, but the fact that 1000’s of lives aren’t being lost a day anymore is such a blessing for many families.

Cases are going up, as was always going to happen, but the death rate staying so low each day is such a relief.

I’m relieved the vaccines must be working and I’m so happy for the all the the families in society who are no longer being ripped apart by losing their loved ones to such a horrible virus.

Maybe it’s because the sun is shining very beautifully where I am, but I’m feeling very positive this morning

This isnt the first time I have seen that you have read or reacted to a piece of information and read it in the completely wrong way

Likewise you Quartz

@Tealightsandd

Crossposted.

Ah so the deaths are mainly pneumonia, not flu. That makes much more sense. We know that Covid commonly leads to pneumonia.

On a related note. We know that 30% of PCR tests are false negatives. I wonder if this is higher with the Delta strain?

Yes crossposted again.

I think the fact that they are currently under the 5 year average even at 1100 per week means that very few COVID based deaths are being missed

Btw asking questions is important.

In an open democratic society.

@Tealightsandd

This isnt the first time I have seen that you have read or reacted to a piece of information and read it in the completely wrong way

Likewise you Quartz

As I have said it is the problem with being led by "the science" and the data @Tealightsandd most can be interpreted in very different ways. You see it on here at the time. Everyone viewpoint means that it is skewed.

This one though is very much nothing to see here and

I don't see how you can be so confident. At least 30% of PCR are false negatives. I posted a link the other day. A report about the false negatives. It cited an example - a patient, a man in his 30s, who was hospitalised and repeatedly tested negative. He was only confirmed Covid positive when he had an antibody test.

Still hopefully you're right.

Not that the deaths are our main worry. Going forwards, that will be Long Covid.

1100 people died today from flu or other respiratory virus other than covid

My questions were in response to this previous poster Quartz.

Since then, others have posted to explain that poster got it wrong.

Thank you everyone for the informative discussion about flu pneumonia. It's so good to see some proper non hysterical discussion on here.

That's not sarcastic by the way - just re read and it looks like it is

@Tealightsandd I never trust posters on here, I never trust media headlines either which have a tendency to extrapolate out a heading that gets the most clicks.

Always go to the source. And yes the source data is reassuring - it January we were 41.6% over the 5 year average in terms of deaths. Now we are solidly between 0.4-1%. Even if some of the deaths are being misplaced it isnt concerning.

I agree actually that there are probably far more cases out there then we know about but as long as the deaths and hospitalisations data is positive.

I also agree with Long Covid. but I also think we need some proper research and breakdown about this. Having had 3 serious viruses in my life (Chicken pox as an adult, Glandular Fever and Swine Flu) I am well aware that they can take time to get over of at least 6-12 weeks. We need proper data on this I think

"Not that the deaths are our main worry. Going forwards, that will be Long Covid"

But people are recovering from 'long Covid'. I have post viral (pneumonia) CF (ME). I've met lots of people who have post viral CF in the ME clinic and rehab gym. Being ill after serious viruses isn't a new thing and has never bothered us before. The DWP doesn't recognise CF as it should and the therapies for it are massively underfunded considering how debilitating it is. People are recovering from long Covid much quicker than other people and I have.

There was an explanation of the flu situation on the BBC 6pm news last night by the health correspondent who comments before and after the Covid broadcasts.

“ At least 30% of PCR are false negatives”

No. This is not correctly phrased. I am sure you meant to write the correct meaning but accidentally implied that 30% of negative PCRs are false negatives.

An estimated 30% of those that would be positive come out as negative, so you can estimate that the number of positive cases among those tested by PCR may be multiplied by about 1.4-1.5.

What this means is that if (for example - not accurate figures but broadly similar for the last few days) 700,000 tests are being done daily, and 25,000 are positive, then there are an estimated 12,000 false negatives and NOT 300,000 false negatives.

You may think this is a minor point, but it is important to accurately describe the data we are using to support our opinions.

Yes, death/hospitalisation rates look encouraging - I'm not sure whether or not one might get to a point where the dam breaks and they go up, but at the moment I'm broadly positive and slightly annoyed at all the people going 'Look at the infection numbers, opening up again is madness we're going to have to lock down again' because I think we do have to recognise the situation and what constitutes a proportionate reaction is different now.

I acknowledge it could go horribly wrong in some way but I also appreciate we don't have the luxury of saying 'Well let's be really careful and keep things very locked down for another 6-12 months to be sure' in terms of the economy and other wellbeing issues.

Yes I messed up Quartz I never normally trust a post without checking. That will teach me to come on MN and post when tired.

I agree we need to look at slowly opening up. I just also agree with the experts at the WHO, that it should be done with mitigation measures in place. Such as masks, particularly in poorly ventilated enclosed spaces like public transport.

I also think openness and transparency is needed. Some MPs are calling for government to stop reporting daily deaths. Just as cases (and deaths) are rising...

I should add that, whilst I think we should tentatively look at opening up gradually, with mitigation measures like masks, the borders should be restricted until we have majority fully vaccinated.

Of course that won't happen. Not in the UK anyway. But it should.

And, like it or not. Long Covid is a huge issue. It will become more apparent in the next couple of years.

www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/28/health-systems-should-be-prepared-doctors-brace-for-tsunami-of-long-covid

No comment at all on your misrepresentation of rates of false negatives in PCR tests? Ok then

www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n287/rr

Sensitivity of PCR testing in the real world (taking into consideration the likelihood of the virus getting onto the swab) is only of the order of 70%. It misses (gives false negative results) in about 30% of people who do actually have the virus, and who may be contagious.

health.economictimes.indiatimes.com/amp/news/diagnostics/covid-19-false-negatives-on-test-raise-questions-about-accuracy/75734308

www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1930043321001874

We herein report a 36-year-old man patient who had a history of exposure to COVID-19 confirmed patient. He was admitted to our hospital with clinical, radiological, and serological findings of COVID-19 but RT-PCR test repeatedly showed negative results, while his wife tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 using RT-PCR in the next following days.

I do think masks and at least some distancing should remain, yeah. I will probably continue to wear masks in indoor public spaces until infections fall even if they don't mandate that.

@Teaslightsanddd both of those say exactly what @RocheLobe is saying.

It is NOT as you said At least 30% of PCR are false negatives

more that

It misses (gives false negative results) in about 30% of people who do actually have the virus, and who may be contagious

They (as said above) are two very different things.

Absolutely
Hopefully back to normal ASAP

You can play with semantics Quartz all you like but you can't change the factd

There's a relatively high number of PCR false negatives.

*facts

@shewalkslikerihanna

Absolutely Hopefully back to normal ASAP

Sadly not in the UK. Not with the lack of mitigation measures. I suspect that the medical and scientific experts are right that any pretence of 'normal' will be short-lived. The government might not listen to their warnings against repeating the mistakes of last summer but ignoring reality doesn't make it go away. And this time they most definitely will not have the excuse of 'hindsight'.

Thanks to more haste, less speed, normal is unfortunately further off than it could have been.

tealights

literally all gov and scientist agree its time go open up

if we cant open now we never will - 99% of those at risk of hospitalisation and death have had chance for double vax

some people will always worry - esp those with health anxiety but common sense must prevail

the other 1% cannot outweigh the negatives of restrictions

if deaths rise to 50-60 a day that still equates to flu in average year