Is anyone else reassured by the death rates??

[ThornAmongstRoses]

Is it just me?

I feel so reassured about the fact that the death rates are staying so low.

Each death is obviously a tragedy, I’m not dismissing that, but the fact that 1000’s of lives aren’t being lost a day anymore is such a blessing for many families.

Cases are going up, as was always going to happen, but the death rate staying so low each day is such a relief.

I’m relieved the vaccines must be working and I’m so happy for the all the the families in society who are no longer being ripped apart by losing their loved ones to such a horrible virus.

Maybe it’s because the sun is shining very beautifully where I am, but I’m feeling very positive this morning

@Roonerspismed

I don’t understand why more isn’t made of this

I look at other countries unlocking; lower vaccination rates and think - what is going on?

They don't have Delta.

Yet.

@NannyAndJohn

It's too early to tell. Hospitalisations are starting to rise rather quickly though.

Also - Long Covid.

Maybe you know with this certainty do vaccines reduce Long Covid?

I think we still need to be cautious ATM, But yes! it is encouraging that the death numbers are so low and that the numbers are sustained

I was one of the “just a couple more weeks” crowd ten days ago. Because it had been such a short time since the case numbers really started to take off, we didn’t have enough evidence to be confident in our hopeful expectation that the vaccines would hold the line for the NHS. I was holding my breath. Ten days on, I’m exhaling slowly, because the data is showing the right things.

Sometimes “a couple more weeks” really does mean “a couple more weeks”.

Yes, it's looking positive. Thank goodness!

I would really like to know how many vaccinated people are being hospitalised or dying who weren't already sick. We know that people with immune problems or who are already weakened by illness will fare less well, sadly. I think it would help to know if otherwise fit and healthy 70 year olds are still dying of Covid. My parents are still being really careful and I can understand why!

[quote MareofBeasttown]@MarshaBradyo I have a lot of anecdotal evidence about the vaccines working because my family is in India and nearly all have been double vaxxed. Some of them got the Delta variant- because they are doctors and it has been hard to avoid for them- but had very mild cases. I have no data though.[/quote]
But most under 60s would have very mild cases anyway, pre-vaccine, so this doesn't tell us anything.

"They don't have Delta.

Yet."

I'm on the continent. We have Delta, but we're not in the middle of a wave at the moment and our numbers are going down, not up.

@3asAbird

We were constantly told last 18months or so

When cases are high hospital admissions and deaths will follow.
That there a 3 week lag.
That deaths are baked in.
If deaths are say 1% of cases for example and deaths go extra thousand.
For every 1000 caess would = 100 deaths.
I think too early count our chicken personally.

1% of 1000 is 10 not 100 @3asAbird!

@3asAbird

We were constantly told last 18months or so

When cases are high hospital admissions and deaths will follow.
That there a 3 week lag.
That deaths are baked in.
If deaths are say 1% of cases for example and deaths go extra thousand.
For every 1000 caess would = 100 deaths.
I think too early count our chicken personally.

That was pre-vaccine times.

Try harder!

But most under 60s would have very mild cases anyway, pre-vaccine, so this doesn't tell us anything.

We’re talking about Long Covid which is often added by some.

We’ve been vaccinating long enough to get data on this. Not sure if there is however

I'm cautiously optimistic, but am still nervous about the school situation - it's a lottery for kids. I'm nervous that covid non-isolators and non- testers will affect hospital numbers and hospital waiting lists. I am also relieved that numbers are growing at a slower rate than initially thought - if we really do reach the peak within a couple of weeks, that will be great.

@MarshaBradyo

But most under 60s would have very mild cases anyway, pre-vaccine, so this doesn't tell us anything.

We’re talking about Long Covid which is often added by some.

We’ve been vaccinating long enough to get data on this. Not sure if there is however

No, the post I was copying was not to do with Long Covid.

Let’s continue to get vaccinated and hope there are no further or likely new mutating variants of escape for a longer term sustainable fuller reopening of all society and businesses to save lives and livelihoods in a scientifically sustainable manner.

Ok maybe cross wires as I was asking about Long Covid and got that reply so assumed that was topic.

Maybe not

But I still think older groups and HCP could have data on them if we’re lucky

To Gwen

I think the data is confusing at the moment. The nature of the Delta variant is that it spreads locally very fast. Some areas have very very few cases (where I live has 47 cases per 100,000), and other areas have a lot more (530+ cases per 100,000). So if we take hospitalisation data for the whole of the country, it gives a distorted and overly optimistic figure.

What we'd need to have to give us a better idea of what's going on on is the rates of hospitalisation in areas with higher rates of Covid vs the rate of vaccination in the same area. I'm sure the data is somewhere, but it's not easy to find.

Also in hospitalisation rates, it would be good to know how many are on ventilators or in intensive care. That would be very telling in terms of severity of the illness after one or two doses of the vaccine. If few people are in intensive care, that would be a very positive development.

@helpmebeanadult

I'm cautiously optimistic, but am still nervous about the school situation - it's a lottery for kids. I'm nervous that covid non-isolators and non- testers will affect hospital numbers and hospital waiting lists. I am also relieved that numbers are growing at a slower rate than initially thought - if we really do reach the peak within a couple of weeks, that will be great.

My child’s primary school bubble as with several local primary and secondary schools have already been asked to self isolate with remote home online schooling. My child tests negative daily using home anti gen self screening lateral flow tests but on school instructions tested positive with the official full strength diagnostic Covid PCR laboratory test! Too many within local community are blasé, Covid fatigued, don’t mask and don’t social distance but hopefully single or double jabbed and importantly don’t test at all. Even with the widely pushed quick and easy but low medical threshold quality free home lateral flow tests that tests for any anti bodies for asymptomatic colds, other general respiratory viruses etc including possibly Covid but requires a confirmation follow up more accurate PCR test. No one seemingly cares whether it is Indian, Cornwall, NW England, Leicester South Asian or any other potential Euro 2020/1 variants of possible vaccines escape. It’s 2019 already in central London jabbed or not! Can’t see it being wholly long term sustainable even if vaccination helps!

Long COVID data is difficult at present because there is no agreed upon definition (it is used as a catch all for everything from permanent lung damage to permanent loss of smell to ongoing fatigue, or nerve damage, or digestive problems etc or a combination of any of the above) or duration (symptoms continuing beyond 5 weeks? 10? 12?

*permanent - as far as we know to date. My neighbour has lung damage but he's a young bloke and has been told it might improve. Some people are reporting their sense of smell returning after a year.

@poorly kitten - where do you find numbers for hospitals? I'd be interested to see how cases are translating into hospital numbers locally rather than the overall hospital number.

@Poorlykitten from a nurse who works on the wards... So only anecdotal but not sure why she would lie.

@QwertyGirly

I think the data is confusing at the moment. The nature of the Delta variant is that it spreads locally very fast. Some areas have very very few cases (where I live has 47 cases per 100,000), and other areas have a lot more (530+ cases per 100,000). So if we take hospitalisation data for the whole of the country, it gives a distorted and overly optimistic figure.

What we'd need to have to give us a better idea of what's going on on is the rates of hospitalisation in areas with higher rates of Covid vs the rate of vaccination in the same area. I'm sure the data is somewhere, but it's not easy to find.

Also in hospitalisation rates, it would be good to know how many are on ventilators or in intensive care. That would be very telling in terms of severity of the illness after one or two doses of the vaccine. If few people are in intensive care, that would be a very positive development.

The government dashboard gives all that information, by region and locality. Look up your locality, and your local hospital. I know, for example, that locally to me, since mid may, so four weeks back, we have had 2 patients with Covid, none on ventilation and no deaths.

@3asAbird

We were constantly told last 18months or so

When cases are high hospital admissions and deaths will follow.
That there a 3 week lag.
That deaths are baked in.
If deaths are say 1% of cases for example and deaths go extra thousand.
For every 1000 caess would = 100 deaths.
I think too early count our chicken personally.

Ah but they now aren't baked in in the same way, I did a post on another thread than showed that we are having around a tenth of both hospital admissions and deaths as we were at the same point in the 2nd wave.

[quote helpmebeanadult]@poorly kitten - where do you find numbers for hospitals? I'd be interested to see how cases are translating into hospital numbers locally rather than the overall hospital number. [/quote]
Government dashboard - Look up your local area, and local hospital.

@BigWoollyJumpers So if I look at Burnley for example, which has a rate of 422 cases per 100,000. They've had 6 deaths (within 28 days of testing positive for Covid). 48 people admitted to hospital who tested positive. they've had 50% of adult population who have had both dose of the vaccine.

It still doesn't tell me how many of those admitted to hospital have had one dose, two doses or no dose of the vaccine. It doesn't tell me if they are in intensive care. Between 15 and 21 June 2021, there have been 6 deaths within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test in the region. This shows an increase of 500.0% compared to the previous 7 days.

It still doesn't tell me if the vaccine is working.