We're going to have another lockdown aren't we?

[faithfulbird20]

So yesterday we got very quick messages for 2nd vaccine 4 weeks after first and a lot of people were saying that's quick...also today school has said they're cancelling all trips too due coronavirus. I guess there's fear it will get a lot worse...honestly think it will be another year or more before things get better...

Can't see another lockdown. Lockdown was based on ICU beds and the ability to save lives. Infection rates are increasing but hospitalizations aren't growing at the same rate.

@Quartz2208 Without lockdowns and restrictions there are no emergency measures so no emergency use. Without the lockdowns and restrictions there is no... pandemic?
Plus how many people do you actually think would have had the vaccine if there were no lockdowns? And how many do you think will be willing vaccinate their child with an emergency use vaccine that hasn’t passed any clinical trials without any lockdown or restrictions? Probably far too many even without but even more will when parents are stuck home schooling whilst WFH again and just want life to go back to normal.

@ConfusedCarrie The same thing happened last summer. It’s a respiratory illness.

Sunnnysideuo where are you getting that from? Lockdowns do not make a pandemic and we can certainly vaccinate without them

It is also important to note as well even when the lockdown restrictions end there are still quite a few emergency powers in place for this and I fully expect the 2020 Act to be given its final 6 months in September through to March 2022

@ConfusedCarrie

Can't see another lockdown. Lockdown was based on ICU beds and the ability to save lives. Infection rates are increasing but hospitalizations aren't growing at the same rate.

They never do...at first.

I did check this morning, the last time we had 10k cases we were having an average of 1-1.5k hospitalisations

it was in February btw if anyone wants to check it

I think it is quite clear that the Delta variant, as much as some still say it will, isnt going to cause a lockdown.

Chris Hopson said this morning

So that’s why we’re continuing to say with increasing optimism that the vaccines have broken the chain between the community infections with Covid-19, and the very high level of hospitalisations that we’ve seen in previous waves, but for this set of variants; we don’t know what variants are going to come in future.

and I think it is the last bit that is key. No one can say another lockdown wont happen because who knows what variant will appear. But for now I think it is positive. We are quite some way in now and the sky has not yet fallen or look to have fallen for this one

@EasterIssland

I did check this morning, the last time we had 10k cases we were having an average of 1-1.5k hospitalisations

Hospitalisations are related to the case numbers 1-3 weeks previously.

Not the cases in the week in which they happen.

In January detected cases peaked at about 68,000.

On the way down a peak you're still dealing with the cascade effect of cases having been much higher.

This week, we have the hospital admissions from a couple of weeks ago when cases were about 5000 a day.

In a couple of weeks (maybe less) when cases hit 20,000 a day the hospitalisations will be based on cases of about 10,000 a day from right now.

They can make all the rules they want, but I won't follow them and I doubt I'm alone.

Where do you get your historical figures @PrincessNutNuts. I’d be interested to look at a comparison in hospital admissions with current case figures and previous case figures. Specifically preceding the January lockdown and the November lockdown.

There should have been a ‘?’ in there somewhere

@Cornettoninja

Where do you get your historical figures *@PrincessNutNuts*. I’d be interested to look at a comparison in hospital admissions with current case figures and previous case figures. Specifically preceding the January lockdown and the November lockdown.

The official coronavirus website from the government

@Cornettoninja

Where do you get your historical figures *@PrincessNutNuts*. I’d be interested to look at a comparison in hospital admissions with current case figures and previous case figures. Specifically preceding the January lockdown and the November lockdown.

I just remember roughly what case numbers were two weeks ago, and what the peak was in January.

Cases 2 weeks ago were around 6000, the last time we had those numbers at the start of 2nd peak was 29th September. 2 weeks after that there was nearly 6000 in hospital and 70+ daily deaths.

2 weeks on from the same numbers and we have 1300 in hospital and a weekly average of 10 deaths....

Now over to you @PrincessNutNuts

@Whatever9999

Cases 2 weeks ago were around 6000, the last time we had those numbers at the start of 2nd peak was 29th September. 2 weeks after that there was nearly 6000 in hospital and 70+ daily deaths.

2 weeks on from the same numbers and we have 1300 in hospital and a weekly average of 10 deaths....

Now over to you @PrincessNutNuts

What point are you making @Whatever9999?

That the link between cases and hospitalisation/deaths has if not completely broken has been severely reduced

@Whatever9999

Cases 2 weeks ago were around 6000, the last time we had those numbers at the start of 2nd peak was 29th September. 2 weeks after that there was nearly 6000 in hospital and 70+ daily deaths.

2 weeks on from the same numbers and we have 1300 in hospital and a weekly average of 10 deaths....

Now over to you @PrincessNutNuts

This to me looks very positive

I’m not sure why someone wouldn’t get the point

@marshaBradyo

It does seem very positive, it just doesn't seem to fit with a certain mindset a certain group of people have, or with their "maths"

@Whatever9999

Cases 2 weeks ago were around 6000, the last time we had those numbers at the start of 2nd peak was 29th September. 2 weeks after that there was nearly 6000 in hospital and 70+ daily deaths.

2 weeks on from the same numbers and we have 1300 in hospital and a weekly average of 10 deaths....

Now over to you @PrincessNutNuts

Ah thanks @EasterIssland, @Whatever9999 has posted pretty much what I was looking for (thank you ).

Those figures look pretty positive to me. At a glance I would comment that 1300 is a big number but I’m not taking into account lengths of admissions and many other factors so it’s mainly down to how the hospitals themselves say they’re coping which I’m presuming they are since I haven’t seen any rumblings of warning…

a month ago we were around 850-900 hospital admissions in total, so this month we've seen an increase of 500 despite having 3000-10k case a day

Thetes a guy on one of the twitter stats thread I follow who does a similar comparison between cases and deaths now and in sept/oct last year.

@Whatever9999

That the link between cases and hospitalisation/deaths has if not completely broken has been severely reduced

Well things are different now because we have a different variant than September.

Things are different now because we have different restrictions from September.

And things are different now because we have vaccines we didn't have in September.

Because of them the ratio of hospitalisations to cases has changed from what it was in September.

But the one thing that isn't different is that he more cases you allow, the more hospitalisations you will get.

🤣🤣🤣

it’s good bit it’s made to sound bad