Do you think they will extend the lockdown or stick with 21st June As Freedom day?

[ihatebindweed]

I hope they don't extend, because it moves the goalposts and then could lead to another extension. As it optional to go to certain places like clubs, when they open, then people vaccinated or not can make their choice.

I sadly think they will extend it and ruin my party planned for the end of June.

@frumpety

Sorry if this has already been mentioned. When the restrictions are lifted, as in the ones they mentioned might happen on the 21st of June, this doesn't effect the travel in/out of the country restrictions does it ? I thought those were seperate ? A colleague seemed to think that after the 21st of June or whenever it happens, it would mean foreign travel would also automatically lose any restrictions, I questioned this because I can't see them suddenly saying all the red countries are now green.

The planned easing has nothing to do with international travel (or masks or isolating or even recommendations to social distance where possible). The very unhelpful term 'freedom day' used by the press has people thinking it means back to normal, it doesn't. It will remove the legal limits on gatherings and allow the remaining businesses that are legally required to be shut (nightclubs etc.) to open. It will also mean that venues can operate at full capacity if they wish to.

There will still be international travel restriction, legal obligation to wear a mask in certain situations, isolating if you have covid or you are a close contact, and the recommendation to social distance from strangers if possible.

@nordica

Another month will mean lots more will be vaccinated - which will protect individuals from the risk of serious illness and hospitalisation and therefore protect the NHS from getting overwhelmed. It will also reduce spread of the virus as it is much less likely for a vaccinated person to transmit it, especially to other vaccinated people.

The vaccines are working but not enough have been fully vaccinated yet. The 21st June was always a strange date to have picked when the government goal is to offer a first vaccine to all adults by the end of July. Maybe without the Delta variant that may have worked out but not now.

The risk of serious illness/hospitalisation outside the top 9 groups is very small anyway.

Thank you x

I'm just so tired of it all now. More people could sit in my shit classroom than at my outdoor wedding on 16th July

I know it's selfish but I'm so sad.

The fail is saying restrictions could last til next spring

As of Friday 11th June:
1257 hospitals throughout the uk, 1058 covid patients in hospital - a figure that doesn’t distinguish whether they are in hospital suffering from covid or in hospital for any other reason but happen to have tested positive for covid.

Quick, close everything!!!!! FFS

This country has lost people, businesses, homes, mental health, but most of all it has lost al sense of perspective and reasonable risk assessment.

We should not be accepting this and we should not be scared of cases. There now exists protection for the vulnerable and no variants have shown that they can evade the vaccine. It’s utter madness and I truly fear we have now given up enough freedom that we will never get it back.

If, as seems increasingly likely, the way cases reach those homes in the first place is through the vector of schools, they will be what is driving the rise

It is in fact, the exact opposite. Cases don't magically appear in schools from nothing. They come in from the community. The community having not been following the guidelines. Yes, of course it then spreads in schools, but the driver is not the children, it is the adults mis-behaving, and passing it on to the children.

And whilst I am here having a grump, my large local county hospital in the South, had three admissions in the whole of May and none so far in June. My school only had three cases before Xmas, and none since.

It is always very interesting that peoples perspectives reflect their own experiences, and of course this is obvious, but from where we are sitting here, to cancel all end of year school celebrations is non-sensical.

BigWoolly,

The issue is that previous patterns of cases do not necessarily predict future patterns.

Local secondary went from no cases for much of the Autumn term, to 350+ children isolating, in the space of 2 days.

The school I work in has had no isolations due to children with Covid at all, throughout the pandemic - but had 5 children test positive last week, due to travelling and mixing over half term.

It may feel nonsensical, but there are real common sense reasons - as well as simple human justice and fairness - that the same rules should apply to all. is it right that children in the North West, who have been isolated and locked down and lost SO much more school than others elsewhere, ALSO have to miss out on all end of term celebrations through no fault of their own, while their more privileged peers in the South, already educationally and socially advantaged through shorter lockdowns and many fewer isolations, ALSO get parties?

The risk of serious illness/hospitalisation outside the top 9 groups is very small anyway.

Would you like to put a percentage on that @bumbleymummy?

What % of 32 million people do you think is at risk of serious illness/hospitalisation?

Because if we let Delta spread it'll get to them.

And if anything, they are more vulnerable because they don't know they are.

@BigWoollyJumpers

If, as seems increasingly likely, the way cases reach those homes in the first place is through the vector of schools, they will be what is driving the rise

It is in fact, the exact opposite. Cases don't magically appear in schools from nothing. They come in from the community. The community having not been following the guidelines. Yes, of course it then spreads in schools, but the driver is not the children, it is the adults mis-behaving, and passing it on to the children.

I don't think that is quite fair.

Yes, the FIRST case that comes into a school will be from community spread (via adults OR via children's activities, that are considerably less socially-distanced than adult equivalents and often mix children from many schools, e.g. a significant outbreak in NW schools driven by a youth / children's performing arts group).

However, as the mitigations within schools are not sufficient to prevent spread between pupils, especially for the delta variant and especially in areas where parents are reluctant to test children because of the impact on their own ability to work, that single case can then multiply and be taken back to many homes, even where the adults have been behaving completely responsibly.

It is worth remembering that what is allowed in school - large groups of maskless, non-vaccinated individuals in close contact for hours at a time indoors, then a move on to mix with another slightly different large maskless group, also in close contact indoors - is not allowed in any other setting, and where the virus gets in, unless isolation is immediate and complete, it is very easily spread.

@BigWoollyJumpers

And whilst I am here having a grump, my large local county hospital in the South, had three admissions in the whole of May and none so far in June. My school only had three cases before Xmas, and none since.

It is always very interesting that peoples perspectives reflect their own experiences, and of course this is obvious, but from where we are sitting here, to cancel all end of year school celebrations is non-sensical.

it's an absolute farce

It is also worth remembering that there will be a percentage of vaccinated people who have not developed effective immunity. While cases remain low, they are still protected by the vaccination of those around them and the low likelihood of coming into contact with an infectious individual.

If cases become very high again, their risk of infection rises - and as Princess says, because they ARE vaccinated [though not effectively], and have no idea of their vulnerability, they may not keep themselves as safe through isolation as they have previously.

it's an absolute farce

Is it a farce in Blackburn? In Bolton? Bedford? The rapidly-rising areas now spreading out from these initial spots (just look at the map, week on week)?

It is all very well to mock from a safe distance.

There's been lots of talk about hospitalisation, but I thought one of the main reasons now for reducing the spread is to reduce the risk of more variants? Every time the virus is passed on, that increases the chances of it mutating, which increases the chance of a vaccine-resistant variant emerging. Obviously there has to be a balance between slowing the spread and getting back to normal, but isn't one of the arguments for a few weeks' extra delay that those extra millions of vaccinations will reduce the spread and reduce the variant risk?

350 children isolating isn't 350 cases, it's just unfortunate.

Why has Covid taken hold more in the north? Is it more communities that haven't limited their social contact? I live in an area with a large community of Muslims and from my Facebook friends their has been lots of socialising indoors throughout in big extended family groups. Relations coming over from abroad. Although I'm in the south. Certainly a lot of us southerners are less friendly 😅

I think the only option is herd immunity, BUT herd immunity through vaccination. Given the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant, it is unavoidable that the unvaccinated (ie young people and children) will contract it, so it will be a race to vaccinate as many as possible.

I really don’t think we can run society in favour of those who will not/cannot be vaccinated or even more so, those who have two vaccines but are still not immune.

I am cev, have had two jabs, but wanting a forever lockdown in favour of me just in case the vaccines didn’t work would be supremely selfish. I was remarking to dh earlier, after seeing a (known to us) married couple wearing masks in their car that covid has among a million other things stoked up hypochondria and extreme self-regard.

The community having not been following the guidelines. Yes, of course it then spreads in schools, but the driver is not the children, it is the adults mis-behaving, and passing it on to the children.

People still catch covid when following the guidelines. People who work in risky situations where the guidelines don't apply/can't be followed. Is a police officer, prison officer, teacher, medic, factory worker 'mis-behaving', or just having their risk conveniently ignored?

The rest of my response would be the same as @cantkeepawayforever

It is in fact, the exact opposite. Cases don't magically appear in schools from nothing. They come in from the community. The community having not been following the guidelines. Yes, of course it then spreads in schools, but the driver is not the children, it is the adults mis-behaving, and passing it on to the children.

Oh goody. Let's play the blame game. You know that most people aren't WFH any.more and a lot never could? Lots and lots of people have caught it through work but let's just say they're misbehaving. That will suit Boris'.narrative better. After all, it might distract the plebs from wondering if.it might just.have come into the country on planes from India because the PM didn't have any balls.

How can people swallow this bullshit after all this.time. its so bleeding obvious

Of course it will extend. It’s obvious the government have been leaking to the media to soften the blow.

Well, we will have to agree to disagree. I personally support local lockdowns. It works in every other country in the world, why do we have to be so exceptional?

What is this about having to lockdown until spring next year? How be right? This makes me so annoyed. How can we be being prepared for restrictions until 2022 when everyone will be double jabbed by October and booster pass given out?

When is this shit going to end ffs?

@BigWoollyJumpers

Well, we will have to agree to disagree. I personally support local lockdowns. It works in every other country in the world, why do we have to be so exceptional?

I guess you live in an area that would be most likely to have a local lockdown then since you want them.

@BigWoollyJumpers

Well, we will have to agree to disagree. I personally support local lockdowns. It works in every other country in the world, why do we have to be so exceptional?

They didn't work last year when we had them though.

I predict that the next big thing, foreshadowed by MSM, will be that herd immunity can't be achieved through vaccination.

But at the outset, this was not the aim. Just to reduce severe illness and death and prevent overwhelm of the health service by the most vulnerable groups. Because there were no approved therapeutics.

The original 'plan' was herd immunity and freedom. Then it was pointed out that this plan would overwhelm the health service. Hence deny this was ever the plan and panic and lockdown when exponential growth is obvious. But still don't approve therapeutics or close borders.

So then plan B is for vaccine, herd immunity and freedom. Obviously can't approve therapeutics because then vaccine wouldn't get emergency approval and can't close borders because of trade and the economy (although the rich are having a good pandemic).

But what are the odds that this plan b doesn't work either because the vaccines don't result in immunity even for the original virus and the bugger mutates (who knew?) and finds new hosts, becomes more transmissible (the original virus could already be transmitted by the asymptomatic) more likely to require hospitalisation etc. So herd immunity will never arrive. Booster jabs will always be playing catch up if you have to deliver to the majority of the population.

Then we are back to panicked lockdown and all its ills.

Maybe then they will consider therapeutics and closing borders.

A slightly worrying figure is 29% of those who have died with new variants had had 2 jabs

The bit that is missing is how soon after second jab , their age did they have other illnesses as well.

We are lucky to have stats but the details are important.

I think they might just slow down on the last bits of opening up