Do you think they will extend the lockdown or stick with 21st June As Freedom day?

[ihatebindweed]

I hope they don't extend, because it moves the goalposts and then could lead to another extension. As it optional to go to certain places like clubs, when they open, then people vaccinated or not can make their choice.

I sadly think they will extend it and ruin my party planned for the end of June.

@PrincessNutNuts

Just re-upping the last Warwick modelling in advance of Monday's decision.

There's a big push to discredit SAGE modelling going on at the moment but I bet they're not highlighting this one.

And here it is with Step 4 included.

Not to mention that the consensus among SAGE now seems to be that Delta is 60% more transmissible than Alpha - worse than Warwick's worse case scenario.

The problem is that if we don't open up now, I can't see when we will. Cases over next 4 weeks aren't going to go down so in 4 weeks how could they justify opening up when they can't now? Then it'll be autumn and winter again when things naturally rise anyway.

Can' believe that with so many people vaccinated we have less freedom than last summer. First we were told testing would get us back to normal then it was once the vulnerable were vaccinated to 'cry freedom' Both absolute lies.

If anyone this will be only 2 or 4 weeks there's no chance. If we don't open now then I doubt if we will do so any time this year.

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/12/fears-restrictions-could-place-spring/

No words 😢

@AlecTrevelyan006 exactly ... September is back to school, everyone gets ill. It's gets colder at the end of September, we get flu, coughs colds, put the heating and close the windows. No more limited garden parties and picnics. De ja vu .

I don't know why I'm so upset about it really and some of the areas due to open I don't really use. For me and many of us reduced capacity at places is much nicer as a customer. It's PITA to have to book everything, but I imagine that will stay for many places.

Ok my wedding party will be cancelled. I'm just upset that I didn't get to go away last year and I can't afford to go away this year.. I don't know what to think anymore.

Yes, reduced capacity is lovely as a customer but it's not sustainable. Businesses can't afford to be running half full for much (if any) longer

@BonnieDundee Oh my

It looks smack on that 50% turquoise line to me @NannyAndJohn. A little bit over maybe? As you would expect.

And towards the top of this blue section

@BonnieDundee Looks like Laura Dodsworth will be writing a second book

I haven't read her first one @MercyBooth can't make my mind up if it will completely freak me out and make me more worried for the future

A year ago I was scared of a virus. Now I'm scared of the government and scientists

@MaybeCrazy2

We locked down, we got vaccinated, we stopped seeing loved ones, we gave up so much! Just for the government to keep the borders open and let in the delta variant.

So what was the actual point?!

This is how I also feel. It feels very pointless

I'm awake having a silent cry. Just a little one. We're meant to be getting married on July 16th.

We postponed last year. If he does this we could miss out by 3 fucking days.

I'm fed up of putting a brave face on now. 3 fucking days when hundreds are drinking in pubs up and down the country

@Workyticket

I'm awake having a silent cry. Just a little one. We're meant to be getting married on July 16th.

We postponed last year. If he does this we could miss out by 3 fucking days.

I'm fed up of putting a brave face on now. 3 fucking days when hundreds are drinking in pubs up and down the country

I’m so sorry @Workyticket

I’d be crying too. It’s crap

Many sympathies to people trying to get married

Another telegraph article with some more explanations (their journalists are really good at this, but their articles then tend to get hidden, under a barrage of angry libertarian comments maybe)

www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/face-third-wave-covid-19-die-may-already-have-cast/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

The Telegraph article is behind a paywall. Obvs it wouldn't be right to quote it extensively, but what are its main couple of points?

Cases over next 4 weeks aren't going to go down so in 4 weeks how could they justify opening up when they can't now?

For England, the schools will have closed.

This is awkward politically, because f course the great myth is that schools are covid safe, and that most transmission is within the home. If, as seems increasingly likely, the way cases reach those homes in the first place is through the vector of schools, they will be what is driving the rise. But the government really doesn't want to have to say that. Closing schools would go down like cold sick, so I think that can be ruled out.

When schools are closed and that form of transmissions ends, then the amount of risky contact that society in general is permitting drops sharply, and there is the space for everyone to meet more.

All,bets off for the autumn.

Clear message to me is to enjoy the summer whilst it lasts

Can' believe that with so many people vaccinated we have less freedom than last summer.

What were the restrictions last summer compared to now? I can’t even remember!

I’m sure I read somewhere that they might make weddings exempt from restrictions even if June 21st is delayed. Has anyone else heard that or am I imagining it?

Sorry, just read the Telegraph article that says no special dispensation for weddings

There was a change in the regs early last June, the shielded were told that they could now leave their houses for daily exercise.

For everyone else, you could leave your home for any purpose (not just essential ones). You could meet outdoors in groups of 6, and indoors in groups of 2

Elite athletes could begin training again, and a few more categories of business were allowed to open (outdoors markets, garden centres, car showrooms)

There were further changes later in June.

I don't think current situation is remotely like mid-Junelast year!

Sorry if this has already been mentioned. When the restrictions are lifted, as in the ones they mentioned might happen on the 21st of June, this doesn't effect the travel in/out of the country restrictions does it ? I thought those were seperate ?
A colleague seemed to think that after the 21st of June or whenever it happens, it would mean foreign travel would also automatically lose any restrictions, I questioned this because I can't see them suddenly saying all the red countries are now green.

It’s pretty much guaranteed to be extended now and to be honest I can’t see them getting rid of all restrictions in July! I expect by then we will either be in a worse place and will have to reverse the roadmap or it will be extended again. If they don’t then schools will be buggered for opening in September surely.

What does everyone think about weddings? Do you think BJ will allow more than 30 people?

I think the number of guests allowed at weddings should be dependent on venue size and location rather than an arbitary 30 or whatever.

Another month will mean lots more will be vaccinated - which will protect individuals from the risk of serious illness and hospitalisation and therefore protect the NHS from getting overwhelmed. It will also reduce spread of the virus as it is much less likely for a vaccinated person to transmit it, especially to other vaccinated people.

The vaccines are working but not enough have been fully vaccinated yet. The 21st June was always a strange date to have picked when the government goal is to offer a first vaccine to all adults by the end of July. Maybe without the Delta variant that may have worked out but not now.

Remember bojo promised to build those extra 25 hospitals, shouldn't he be cracking on with that now?
Wouldn't they also help to ease pressures on existing hospitals?