I can’t bear the thought of another full lockdown but it seems inevitable

[cantfaceitalloveragain]

I’ve only just this week been allowed to see sister without social distancing, as she lives in residential care, had a lovely meal and a big hug but at the end all I could think was, will it be another year before we can meet again? She’s been hugely, horribly affected by this virus - she’s dreadfully ill through anxiety - and has been only just told this week she can see two relatives and one friend, and she might be allowed back to day care services the end of this month - first time since Feb 2020 .

I can’t bear the thought of another year indoors, no haircuts, no socialising, no shopping, no travel, no seeing sister or friends or family ...

I live in a tiny village with shit public transport that was largely stoped over both lockdowns ... can’t bear another year in this three mile square and relying on online delivery and zoom ... GP rang this morning and even yapping to her I thought, how lovely it would be to see someone else face to face - most friends and family are still heavily avoiding all socialising, this is my experience of most people now that there’s a lot of fear and anxiety around covid .

I realise restrictions are necessary and probably inevitable, and things could be so so much worse - but I’m struggling so much now . Finding I’m dreading getting out of bed as I keep thinking, what’s coming next?

[quote NannyAndJohn]@Chatterbox1987 When cases started to rise exponentially in September hospitalisations and deaths were still at an all time low.

And we all know what happened next.[/quote]
Yes but not a single person had a vaccine in their arm... 50% of adults have been double jabbed now and 70% have had at least 1 dose which although not as good, will still stop some transmission and serious illness.

You can't honestly believe that we will be seeing 100k cases a day in the near future thats just ludicrous and if it comes true just proves vaccines don't work and we should move on anyway.

I'm actually I the camp that believe maybe we should delay to the end of August (not go back) until every adult has had the opportunity to have some protection.

I do not think we are heading for disaster though some point out.

[quote NannyAndJohn]@Chatterbox1987 When cases started to rise exponentially in September hospitalisations and deaths were still at an all time low.

And we all know what happened next.[/quote]
But we didn't have a fucking vaccine in September!

@NannyAndJohn

The vaccination effect is countered by the increased transmissibility of Delta.

The stats would say otherwise. Whoop!

You can't get 'zero covid'

I can't bear that 17 months into the pandemic our government still doesn't have a good enough covid strategy to prevent lockdowns.

Wouldn't it be better if they prevented it all going to shit rather than lock us down?

@Bluntness100

Here is rhe stats for anyone interested, deaths down 5% and hospitalisations down 2 percent week on week.

Which surely demonstrates that if cases are up but hospitalisation and deaths are down then the vaccines are working.

[quote Ted27]@Turquoisesol

The point several people are making is that the case rate is not the issue now, its hospitalizations and deaths, both of which are in decline[/quote]
That is because it takes a few weeks for people to be hospitalised and a few weeks ago cases of the Delta variant were very low. The scientists are saying that hospitalizations are going to rise. That does not mean deaths will.

NannyAndJohn

You are just unbelievable, did you used to be called Wise incognito ? You must be related if not

NannyandJohn - I think zero COVID could only have worked very early on. Given how far it had spread by March it was never an option.

However, we could have done a lot better with the practical aspect of movement of people (test, trace, track etc).

We still have to see how NZ operates when it does open up.

Which surely demonstrates that if cases are up but hospitalisation and deaths are down then the vaccines are working

Exactly

@PrincessNutNuts

I can't bear that 17 months into the pandemic our government still doesn't have a good enough covid strategy to prevent lockdowns.

Wouldn't it be better if they prevented it all going to shit rather than lock us down?

Yes at this stage any lockdown means mismanagement.

@Bluntness100

Here is rhe stats for anyone interested, deaths down 5% and hospitalisations down 2 percent week on week.

Ok this looks good

Do those thinking we’ll get another lockdown think it looks good? Or do you have other data

That is because it takes a few weeks for people to be hospitalised and a few weeks ago cases of the Delta variant were very low. The scientists are saying that hospitalizations are going to rise. That does not mean deaths will

Of course they will increase, some folks who are vulnerable or over fifty, can’t or choose not to be vaccinated,. Does it mean it will overwhelm the nhs and risk a breach so lockdown is required? No,,not even close.

Yep, it's coming

And you're basing this on what, precisely?

We always knew infections would increase when things opened up. Certainly a more transmissible variant hasn't helped matters, but deaths are still very low and every day more and more people are fully vaccinated. There may be a dialling back of restrictions easing but that's not the same as lockdown.

Here is rhe link for the data, i posted.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Important to bear in mind that more cases lead to more mutations, so we do mind about case numbers, even if hospitalisations and deaths are low.

@MarshaBradyo I have no idea if there will be another lockdown. But the preliminary research is that the Delta variant is twice as likely to lead to hospitalisation, is easier to catch, that one jab is not that effective against it, and that Pfizer two jabs is less effective than hoped.
If all that is true, hospitalizations are going to rise significantly, although deaths may not rise much.

@PrincessNutNuts

I can't bear that 17 months into the pandemic our government still doesn't have a good enough covid strategy to prevent lockdowns.

Wouldn't it be better if they prevented it all going to shit rather than lock us down?

What would you go though

It is clear that vaccines work but at the double vaccine level so getting that done as much as possible is key

As is surge testing

As is keeping I think masks and SD to some extent until you get the majority vaccinated

But beyond that it is clear that actually there is a sense of no one is going to go back. Lockdown isnt going to work and there will be little to no back tracking.

So if you were in charge what would you do?

Because lets be honest no Government has a clear strategy at the moment -

@Notonthestairs

Am I the only that doesn't think there will be another lockdown?

Furlough is due to end.
Large group of backbencher MP threatening rebellion.
6 weeks til the end of term.
40% fully vaccinated - all adults should be fully vaccinated by August/September. Then we will get boosters.

Suspect they'll keep some measures (SD and masks, maybe limited numbers) but hope that the summer keeps everyone outside.

No idea about winter.

As for furlough, yesterday they were potentially talking about extending it if needs be.

@Bluntness100 everything I have read says that those being hospitalised are younger than in the previous waves. They do seem less likely to die, but if numbers are too high then not everyone will be able to get hospital treatment.
My personal view is the jury is still out on what will happen. Cases are going to continue rising, but enough to justify a lockdown? I have no idea.

@NannyAndJohn

Yep, it's coming.

Cases doubling every four days means we'll hit 100,000 a day by the 21st June.

Best we all accept that we'll be spending the rest of the year in lockdown instead of sticking our heads in the sand and pretending that everything's okay.

😂 it isn’t coming! definitely not a national one!

The vaccines work [ well they are thinking 80% efficacy]
They are not sure though. [2 jabs]
The point is, this mutation is potentially 50% plus more transmissible and can partially evade the vaccine. That is not good.
We also have the nepal one in small numbers.
If feels endless.

The government are doing a great statistics job on people. Thank goodness to those who understand the trust. *50.9% of the UK adult population have had BOTH doses. Only half.
*source BBC news, 6pm

Of course we could see much higher hospitalisation rates. The new variant is much, much more transmittable- 50% of the population who are not double vaccinated. Because we haven’t controlled, tested and isolated properly the new variant is beginning to decrease the efficacy of the vaccine.

Who’s Princess Nut Nut?

I don't understand why it's inevitable. With the vast majority of those who would be most likely otherwise "burden" the NHS fully vaccinated and a huge proportion of the others having a first vaccine, which vastly reduces the likelihood of serious illness, the number of cases is not the driving factor. What would the purpose of a new lockdown under these circumstances be?