I can’t bear the thought of another full lockdown but it seems inevitable

[cantfaceitalloveragain]

I’ve only just this week been allowed to see sister without social distancing, as she lives in residential care, had a lovely meal and a big hug but at the end all I could think was, will it be another year before we can meet again? She’s been hugely, horribly affected by this virus - she’s dreadfully ill through anxiety - and has been only just told this week she can see two relatives and one friend, and she might be allowed back to day care services the end of this month - first time since Feb 2020 .

I can’t bear the thought of another year indoors, no haircuts, no socialising, no shopping, no travel, no seeing sister or friends or family ...

I live in a tiny village with shit public transport that was largely stoped over both lockdowns ... can’t bear another year in this three mile square and relying on online delivery and zoom ... GP rang this morning and even yapping to her I thought, how lovely it would be to see someone else face to face - most friends and family are still heavily avoiding all socialising, this is my experience of most people now that there’s a lot of fear and anxiety around covid .

I realise restrictions are necessary and probably inevitable, and things could be so so much worse - but I’m struggling so much now . Finding I’m dreading getting out of bed as I keep thinking, what’s coming next?

@winched

I have family in Washington, Maryland and Virginia. Their over 12's are already vaccinated (weeks ago) as well as the adults . Some things function as normal some don't. Advised not to use school bus for example. Parents can drop off for sports coaching but not watch etc.
Their health service is obviously quite different- I wonder whether they have more ICU beds etc?

@NannyAndJohn you nearly surprised me ... thought you were being positive about something but you're hopeful things go wrong

"Hopefully new model projections will be published taking into account that we're doing even worse than that."

[quote EasterIssland]@NannyAndJohn you nearly surprised me ... thought you were being positive about something but you're hopeful things go wrong

"Hopefully new model projections will be published taking into account that we're doing even worse than that."[/quote]
Nope.

I'd just like to know where we're likely to end up given that all the projections so far have turned out to be underestimates.

Sorry I understand, you're hopeful to see that we've 100k cases a day and 20k cases in hospital a day... but the graphs aren't showing this for you ... despite many have said that the predictions from Warwick where worse than the current behaviour of the virus and this was only with Alpha taken into account, so we're doing better than the worse predictions

@socialmediamishap

So actually we knew that already - after 2 doses it does reduce effectiveness.

@Thewiseoneincognito
@NannyAndJohn
@PrincessNutNuts

If the vaccines aren't enough, then we are sadly I'm afraid going to have to GET ON WITH IT.

There will always be another variant around the corner. The country and economy can't and won't withstand another year of this. Subsequent lockdowns will be a waste of time as they will damage the economy but the majority will continue to meet up with friends and family. The government know this.

Do you truly believe the country and economy could withstand us ‘getting on with it’ during the winter? Do you have any idea what that looks like?

Getting on with it means letting it spread through schools unchecked, potentially infecting millions in workplaces and leisure venues, hospitalisations aside, the fact that many would be off school and work sick even with a mild case of covid would destabilise the economy more than any lockdown.

The alternative to lockdowns in the UK simply due to our population density is far worse in my view. The government also know this.

Well, reading all this is just making me thankful that I'm off to Greece in a couple of weeks time - phew! Their cases are on a sharp downward trend so I should be safer there than here :)

@Thewiseoneincognito last winter, yes. This winter with everyone vaccinated, no.

There's an interesting thread on now other countries are getting on at the moment - if doesn't have to be all or nothing.

We clearly need to continue testing and isolating and probably wfh if you can. But we cannot lockdown again.

@99victoria

Well, reading all this is just making me thankful that I'm off to Greece in a couple of weeks time - phew! Their cases are on a sharp downward trend so I should be safer there than here :)

Thats good to know, im supposed to be going in August!

@99victoria

Well, reading all this is just making me thankful that I'm off to Greece in a couple of weeks time - phew! Their cases are on a sharp downward trend so I should be safer there than here :)

For the Greek's sake I hope you don't take Delta over there with you.

The cases and r number have really shot up. Will the government ready allow Covid to spread indiscriminately as long as hospitals aren’t overwhelmed? It seems the third wave is wel and truly here 😬

@99victoria

Well, reading all this is just making me thankful that I'm off to Greece in a couple of weeks time - phew! Their cases are on a sharp downward trend so I should be safer there than here :)

Have a lovely holiday! After a week in the pissing rain in Dorset last month I'm extremely jealous!

@NannyAndJohn - no room in my suitcase for the pesky Delta variant I'm afraid, it's going to be too full of shorts and summer dresses :)

R number is up and cases are up. Guess what's not increased as if it was first or second lockdowns.....hospital admissions and deaths.

Yay! That's great :)

Just remembered that on this thread (because it annoyed me so much) that @NannyAndJohn you were predicting that we’d be looking at around 100k cases per day by 21st June ……. How are you feeling about your predictions now? I see it was just under 10K cases recorded today.

I think Nanny made the excuse on another thread that it was because of 'noise' in the data @MarcelineMissouri!

Apparently they weren't predictions, they were "projections" and there was "noise in the data" 🤣🤣

Oh you beat me to it PinkSparklyPussyCat 😅

@MarcelineMissouri

Just remembered that on this thread (because it annoyed me so much) that *@NannyAndJohn* you were predicting that we’d be looking at around 100k cases per day by 21st June ……. How are you feeling about your predictions now? I see it was just under 10K cases recorded today.

They weren't predictions, they were projections based upon the trends in the data at the time. There was some uncertainty in that prediction just because there's more noise in the data when cases are lower (they were around 2000 doubling to 4000 at the time).

Currently we're at ~11000 cases a day with a doubling time of 10 days, meaning we'll reach 100000 in just over a month except in the unlikely event that the government does the right thing and reintroduces some low-level restrictions.

noisy data doncha know 😆

How long before we’re talking back on Exponential growth?

Taking bets

It is a sick person who uses the word “hopefully” about cases increasing.

Just had a quick look and using yesterday's slightly higher than today's number of 10321, I looked back on when the numbers were last at half that (5160), which was 3rd June (slightly over half at 5274). This gives a current doubling time of 16 days, so would you say that doubling time is definitely slowing @NannyAndJohn ? And therefore we are currently not seeing exponential growth, but rather are possibly coming to the top of a bell curve?

After all not long ago you were claiming a 4 day doubling time,.now you say 10 day, by my calculations today we're currently at 16days doubling....
Of course that could change in the next few days but from the gov website, there was a week on week increase.of 31% which is number that seems to be slowly dropping.

Today's a Sunday @Whatever9999. Numbers tend to be lower over the weekend.

Check back on Wednesday and Thursday.

(The 7 day average is currently about 9.3. 10 days ago it was 6.2. 17 days ago on June 3rd it was 3.8. )

@PrincessNutNuts

Today's a Sunday *@Whatever9999*. Numbers tend to be lower over the weekend.

Check back on Wednesday and Thursday.

(The 7 day average is currently about 9.3. 10 days ago it was 6.2. 17 days ago on June 3rd it was 3.8. )

Which is why I looked at yesterday's numbers, Saturday tends to be at the higher end of numbers.

So if ten days ago it was 6.2 and today it was 9.3, surely you can see that it hasn't doubled in 10days. Therefore the doubling time is slowly but surely lengthening, in fact as it only went up by 50% in 10 days, that would give an approximate current doubling time of 20 days.

The rate of increase most definitely seems to be slowing then.

So my maths was pretty much spot on, when you account for the fact that doubling time has been slowing over the last couple weeks.
In fact looking at the government website there has been a very dramatic reduction in the rate of increase, and the rate at which that reduction in increase rate is falling appears to be picking up speed.
It peaked on 7th June at 69.9% increase over the 7day period, and has now dropped to 31.4%
I've included screenshots that show this reduction in % increase

@PrincessNutNuts

Visual aid for the direction of travel.

10,633, not the 15k predicted

And definately not 100k!!!

phew