Delta variant spreading in schools

[noblegiraffe]

Not posted one of these threads in a while but the data is starting to get interesting again.

The ONS infection survey data from yesterday shows an alarming increase in infection rates in secondary kids. The PHE survey also shows a jump in outbreaks in schools.

However the infection rates by area show that this is much more of a problem in the North West than e.g. the South West. That suggests that in certain areas, the situation is really bad and in others there's not (yet) a problem. This would suggest a localised approach (the govt are really keen not to talk about tiers).

What is obvious is that there are local variant hotspots, and in those hotspots, covid is running through schools, secondary in particular.

What to do? Stopping the spread of the variant out from those areas should be a high priority. Surge vaccination of adults won't be enough if it is spreading mostly in children. It's evident that the measures taken to stop the spread in schools from Sept-Dec were inadequate (isolation of close contacts only) so it seems clear that in those areas, far more robust tackling of cases in schools is needed -PCR testing not LFT, sending home whole year groups, proactively closing schools instead of as last resort. Schools in those areas already seem to have kept masks. We need to be hearing far more of what they are doing about schools in the news and what to expect.

There are those who would argue that the Delta variant should simply be allowed to spread now, however we know that one vaccination doesn't confer much immunity to it and it would be more prudent to wait until a much bigger proportion of the population are double-vaccinated and more fully protected.

There is also the question of allowing covid to spread through schools and the disruption to education that this would cause. The government announced yesterday that they are only willing to fund a pitiful amount of catch-up support and given that the schools affected are currently restricted to certain areas (and ones that were badly affected last year too), parents and pupils in those areas should not be expected to experience severe disruption caused by unmitigated covid spread if it can be dealt with more effectively. It would seem fair for more covid catch-up funding to be directed to those areas hardest hit but I haven't seen that proposed.

A few positive things: We've just had half term and that usually reduces infection rates in school children. Y11 and Y13 have now left, so secondary schools will have a reduced number of pupils. It's also less than 2 months to the summer holidays.

The Pfizer vaccine has just been approved in the UK for ages 12+. Vaccinating secondary children in those hotspots as a priority could be an option. Priority vaccinations for school staff there should be a no-brainer, I assume that has happened.

Unfortunately the government is currently suppressing data on the number of cases of the Delta variant in schools and there is a legal challenge to get this published. Why they are doing this is unclear. I do hope it's not because they want to pretend that schools aren't an issue until it's too late like they did before, but I don't trust them, for obvious reasons.

@Scrambledcustard
"Yet they were closed. For the best part of a year"

Erm, yes, because most schools continue to have absolutely no meaningful mitigation measures to prevent spread of the virus.

And again -- if measures were in place to prevent the spread schools would not need to close.

@Iggi999

I doubt ( and really hope they don't) they will close again. Remember, it was always about protecting the NHS and since the over 40s have been done now they should be ok. We may just have to live with this. What does "done" mean? I would not say vaccinations are done until both doses are received. That doesn't apply to the over 40s (or many of the over 50s, including myself)

Yes, I am in my 40s and just over 3 weeks ago so immunity is only just starting to get going really. Certainly not fully done.

A variant with an r of 6 will rip through unvaccinated populations like schools.

Not much to do, though, but hope for the best and that it remains mild for younger people.

The sooner we vaccinate everyone, the better, though.

Iggi 🤣🤣

Who would have thought we might look fondly back at the spread of the Kent variant in December as being preferable to this one we're facing now.

As most vulnerable and elderly people have now had both vaccinations the rates of death and hospitalisations should remain lower even as infection rates rise. The vaccine only has a lower effectiveness on a single dose not if both doses have been given, which the at risk population have already had. At some point we as a country have to accept that zero covid is not achievable and that there will always be new variants as we see happen annually with flu.

It's interesting regarding the Kent variant.

I live in an area where there was a huge school outbreak that made national news at the beginning of the month. The variant was the Kent variant, not the Delta one. Case rates in the local area shot up to about 220 per 100k. 4 weeks later, cases in the local area are back down to 5 per 100k. So it appears that there has been no wider community spread in this case. What's different between now and December when this variant was spreading all over? Is it down to vaccination success?

@Icebear99

As most vulnerable and elderly people have now had both vaccinations the rates of death and hospitalisations should remain lower even as infection rates rise. The vaccine only has a lower effectiveness on a single dose not if both doses have been given, which the at risk population have already had. At some point we as a country have to accept that zero covid is not achievable and that there will always be new variants as we see happen annually with flu.

Thanks for confirming that a single dose has a lower effectiveness.

A lot of us have seen colleagues still suffering from long Covid symptoms are concerned about that to be fair. It’s not death or nothing sadly, although reducing transmission as much as possible should be a consideration at the very least.

@Getawaywithit

Yet they were closed. For the best part of a year

Schools never closed. They were always open for key worker children.

The best part of a year is not even close. 12 weeks last year (14 for some, depending on where the school placed the Easter holidays), 8 weeks this year. That's 20 weeks, 22 at most. Not even 6 months.

Considering schools aren’t open the full year, they were closed for a significant portion of the year.

And some schools being open to a small proportion of children for childcare does not mean that saying “schools were closed”
Is incorrect

What's different between now and December when this variant was spreading all over? Is it down to vaccination success?
I very much hope so and the increase in people being outside where ventilation is better, as much as possible.

But schools have been safe throughout

There are plenty of graphs showing cases in schools in December along with the ones NG has posted. Werent children shown to be the index case in many instances?

What's different between now and December when this variant was spreading all over? Is it down to vaccination success?

Yes, is my reckoning. Lockdown brought down Kent variant infections massively, but they started to rise when schools reopening in March. Rates dropped because of the Easter holidays but continued to drop once schools went back with increasing vaccination rates, even in school age children as community levels dropped. Infection rates in the over 60s ended up rounding down to 0%

Infection rates are now increasing again, and the Delta variant is responsible for the increase, it’s now I think 75% of cases.

If we’d just had Kent, things would have been fine.

@Iggi999 😂😂indeed!

Schools weren't open to a "small proportion" for "childcare". We had a couple of hundred children in my school having normal lessons.

Honestly people have no idea what it's been like in schools over the last year.

And some schools being open to a small proportion of children for childcare does not mean that saying “schools were closed”Is incorrect

Can't speak for all schools, but locally I am aware of hubs sharing key worker care, particularly in secondaries. I am also aware that myself and my colleagues, and the many, many teachers I know worked the whole damn time, regardless of whether we were in or out of school. Many of my colleagues worked from school to deliver online learning where their resources where and all the stuff they need, rather than from home every day.

So schools didn't close and please stop insulting those of us who never got any overtime, lost holiday time, worked hard to make sure children were safe, delivered food, food vouchers and learning packs, as well as delivering activities in school and learning online. For the evenings we worked adapting existing resources so they would work online and for the additional marking load online learning created.

Beautifully put Getawaywithit

Who would have thought we might look fondly back at the spread of the Kent variant in December as being preferable to this one we're facing now

The speed with which this pandemic has moved, and what we have been through collectively at a national level, and the added pressures at local community and individual household levels is staggering. That so many of us are still standing, getting out of bed of a morning, doing our jobs, enjoying some summer sun and hoping for the best whilst fearing the worst is also staggering. Future generations will look back in awe.

@noblegiraffe

Thank you for your efforts in keeping us in the loop especially as official data is so secretive when it’s bad news even though the repercussions are obvious as will impact the whole community. Dare I suggest and suspect déjà vu 2020 all over again but this time with potentially newer more transmissible variants of vaccine escape that impact young people too? Once again hope for the best but prepare for the worst. I hope not but hope is not a particularly powerful course of preventative medicine!

And some schools being open to a small proportion of children for childcare does not mean that saying “schools were closed”
Is incorrect

There was remote learning in place as well as key worker places so teachers were working throughout. School didn’t even close for the Easter holidays I recall.

So while the school buildings may have been closed to most pupils, teachers were still working.

Yes, well done @noblegiraffe for raising the current situation for discussion. I suspect more than a couple of families share the sentiment and are trying to make some sort of plan for the next 6-12 months.

I wonder what data we'll have on infection spread and pfizer efficacy in two weeks.

In a nutshell, herd immunity. Make sure it rips through schools so that most get it. Some may fall ill and die but hey ho, that is the sacrifice you make.
The stats on indie sage reveal that they case rates in schools are soaring. Nothing is being published.
What is even more worrying is that they have removed the mask mitigation and their testing strategy is currently not working. Testing is falling in schools. So basically there is nothing to stop it surging.
Thank god for the summer holidays. We close [ in Scotland] in about 3 weeks and it cannot come soon enough.
However schools will close for holidays, case numbers will stabilise then everyone will go on holiday and come back and seed it everywhere come September - November. Sound familiar?
I read the govt are not ruling out an extension to furlough.
Enough said.

Do you remember all the rubbish on here taking the piss out of "variants". Not so bloody funny now is it.

You can't rely on herd immunity for covid. It's a flawed strategy. The virus evolves too fast. Immunity will not last long enough to have any significant impact. It's like colds. People can get a few a year.

Scrambledcustard
don't think during WW2 they got through by pretending it as nothing to worry about!

I think they just carried on with life tbh. What choice did they have? And there is a difference between being in denial and being pragmatic. we literally can not hide away every few months when a new variant comes.

Yet they put in preventative measures to make sure that they could "carry on with life".

the point of these threads that @noblegiraffe keeps posting is also to highlight the fact that instead of putting more measures (back) in place schools are being told to remove them even though the data and scientists say otherwise.

Once again (seems like the same thing as last year) if you want schools to stay open you have to put measures in place before the numbers get to high.

I don’t think there should be any pressure on eg pregnant teachers to be vaccinated. I think that one is going to be hard for head teachers come the autumn term. Will have to see how the NHS deal with it - pre vaccine some were off last few weeks to “shield” in pregnancy

Shielding means that schools have to essentially pay two full time teacher salaries for one class. Obviously this isn’t viable, considering that school budgets have been stripped to the bone in recent years, and covid measures have put them even more in a hole. I assume this is the same in the NHS.

I say this as a 29 weeks pregnant teacher who had the vaccine last week, because in reality there really isn’t a choice if we don’t want to royally shaft our respective schools.