Delta variant spreading in schools

[noblegiraffe]

Not posted one of these threads in a while but the data is starting to get interesting again.

The ONS infection survey data from yesterday shows an alarming increase in infection rates in secondary kids. The PHE survey also shows a jump in outbreaks in schools.

However the infection rates by area show that this is much more of a problem in the North West than e.g. the South West. That suggests that in certain areas, the situation is really bad and in others there's not (yet) a problem. This would suggest a localised approach (the govt are really keen not to talk about tiers).

What is obvious is that there are local variant hotspots, and in those hotspots, covid is running through schools, secondary in particular.

What to do? Stopping the spread of the variant out from those areas should be a high priority. Surge vaccination of adults won't be enough if it is spreading mostly in children. It's evident that the measures taken to stop the spread in schools from Sept-Dec were inadequate (isolation of close contacts only) so it seems clear that in those areas, far more robust tackling of cases in schools is needed -PCR testing not LFT, sending home whole year groups, proactively closing schools instead of as last resort. Schools in those areas already seem to have kept masks. We need to be hearing far more of what they are doing about schools in the news and what to expect.

There are those who would argue that the Delta variant should simply be allowed to spread now, however we know that one vaccination doesn't confer much immunity to it and it would be more prudent to wait until a much bigger proportion of the population are double-vaccinated and more fully protected.

There is also the question of allowing covid to spread through schools and the disruption to education that this would cause. The government announced yesterday that they are only willing to fund a pitiful amount of catch-up support and given that the schools affected are currently restricted to certain areas (and ones that were badly affected last year too), parents and pupils in those areas should not be expected to experience severe disruption caused by unmitigated covid spread if it can be dealt with more effectively. It would seem fair for more covid catch-up funding to be directed to those areas hardest hit but I haven't seen that proposed.

A few positive things: We've just had half term and that usually reduces infection rates in school children. Y11 and Y13 have now left, so secondary schools will have a reduced number of pupils. It's also less than 2 months to the summer holidays.

The Pfizer vaccine has just been approved in the UK for ages 12+. Vaccinating secondary children in those hotspots as a priority could be an option. Priority vaccinations for school staff there should be a no-brainer, I assume that has happened.

Unfortunately the government is currently suppressing data on the number of cases of the Delta variant in schools and there is a legal challenge to get this published. Why they are doing this is unclear. I do hope it's not because they want to pretend that schools aren't an issue until it's too late like they did before, but I don't trust them, for obvious reasons.

And what has everyone been doing this last week? Judging by the traffic reports, anyway...

Well...delay lifting restrictions but do fuck-all about schools?

I work in early years and we had an email today from the LA saying how it is rising in settings and now if anyone either has symptoms or tests positive on a LFD the whole household has to isolate and not to wait for a positive PCR as it is so transmissible. They have said the limit the amount of people we are having in (we haven't thrown our doors open to anybody yet) and to be mindful of 'hands, face and space'. I am still asking my parents to wear a mask when dropping off and collecting even though the school next door has said they don't need to.

all of this to start with

Close the school because teachers are dying" - so we did.
"Close the school because teachers have not been vaccinated" - so we vaccinated
"Close the schools the cases are rising with new variant" - we proved deaths were still falling

Plus any mention of noble saying that she wants schools shut.

All BS and it doesn't matter how many times you repeat it.

It will still be BS.

Also drop the victimhood, you are getting far less than you are paying out.

"The latest PHE data suggest that there have been 97 confirmed COVID-19 outbreaks in primary and secondary schools that have had at least one variant case linked to them over the most recent 4-week period. This represents around 1 in 250 schools."

publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2021/06/03/a-safe-return-to-schools/ 3.06.2021

"Reporting even a small increase in COVID-19 cases may appear concerning but it's important to understand the data in context. COVID-19 data nationally demonstrate the impact of the vaccination and mass testing programmes. Case rates are falling in vaccinated adults, and mass-asymptomatic testing among young people is helping detect cases that would not otherwise be found and preventing the virus from entering schools. Infection and outbreak trends in schools have remained consistent with the expectations of public health and education experts and in line with what is happening nationally.

"Variants
It is understandable that the emergence of new variants of COVID-19 may cause anxiety and concern.

All viruses mutate and there is currently no evidence that variants cause more serious symptoms in children or young people. COVID-19 infections due to any variant remain uncommon in school-aged children and reassuringly, children and young people rarely become seriously ill following COVID-19 infection."

Interesting that the blog repeatedly refers to data from March which was when the Kent variant was dominant and things were going significantly better than now.

PHE are, of course, at the insistence of the government, not publishing the data that they hold on the number of cases of the new variant in schools (outbreak could be anything from 2 cases up).

Giving a national average ('1 in 250 schools') is also quite interesting given that we know that the outbreaks are happening in hotspots and there are reports of several schools in the same area having outbreaks.

But of course Matt Hancock went on TV on Sunday and said that transmission in schools is high and the data is concerning, so the PHE need to make sure that their next blog reflect the current government thinking.

@June2021

"The latest PHE data suggest that there have been 97 confirmed COVID-19 outbreaks in primary and secondary schools that have had at least one variant case linked to them over the most recent 4-week period. This represents around 1 in 250 schools."

publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2021/06/03/a-safe-return-to-schools/ 3.06.2021

"Reporting even a small increase in COVID-19 cases may appear concerning but it's important to understand the data in context. COVID-19 data nationally demonstrate the impact of the vaccination and mass testing programmes. Case rates are falling in vaccinated adults, and mass-asymptomatic testing among young people is helping detect cases that would not otherwise be found and preventing the virus from entering schools. Infection and outbreak trends in schools have remained consistent with the expectations of public health and education experts and in line with what is happening nationally.

From that blog:

As 9 million pupils across the country returned to face-to-face education in March, we saw only a very small increase in cases among 5 to 9 and 10 to 19-year olds. Monitoring positivity rates, using multiple data sources, provided reassurance that this increase was minimal given the huge number of children returning to schools, and crucially did not signal an overall rise in COVID-19 infection in children.

A LOT has happened since March.

In my LA, as I've already mentioned on MN, more than 65% of new cases over the last data week (the week before half term), were in the 0-19 age group.
97% of my LA's new cases are of the Delta variant. So yes, it's spreading very rapidly in schools and that link is out of date already.

There are outbreaks in school and I would welcome mitigation measures. However, what is actually even more important is getting more data on children who have tested positive so that they do not need to isolate again for the next 6 months! My suggestion would be any classes sent home (primary or secondary) are given daily lateral flow tests to be followed up by PCR. Anyone with positive PCR is then exempt from further isolations for the next 6 months. All double vaccinated people including teachers, no more isolation. If the government want to incentivise vaccinations (especially in teenagers) they really need to start changing their stance on freedoms for the vaccinated.
I also think there should be additional mitigation for CV/CEV children - again, the private schools are doing this. If you have a CEV child etc in your class, many are still wearing masks around that child. Or is there a fear that such children might be ostracised in the state sector?

So noble what is your stance on this:

• all PCR positive children, no longer have to isolate for 6 months from date of PCR test
• all double vaccinated teachers, no longer need to isolate for 6 months from last dose
• all double vaccinated children (from September etc), no longer need to self isolate from 2nd dose
• [children with recognised antibody test levels: insert - no longer need to self isolate for 3 months] - not up to speed on science on this one.

Several European countries heading in this direction.

@saraclara
"In my LA, as I've already mentioned on MN, more than 65% of new cases over the last data week (the week before half term), were in the 0-19 age group.
97% of my LA's new cases are of the Delta variant. So yes, it's spreading very rapidly in schools and that link is out of date already."

Yes but it's not spreading in many LA's across the country just in hotspots.

The rest of us are not going to sit around waiting for the hotspots to sort themselves out - I mean we haven't had cases in our hospital for months now. No deaths and single figures for so long it seems ridiculous to only consider the areas that don't seem to be able to keep covid under control. Surge testing and encouraging people to vaccinate in the hot spots and SD and masks in those areas but seriously why the majority of the country where it's not all about covid anymore. It's just a virus now - not killing lots and not hospitalising lots so time to stop making everything about covid. People do get ill from other things you know.

This is up to date information:

"The increase in cases is largely being attributed to highly contagious new variants, with the Delta variant causing the most concern currently.

However, there is emerging evidence that while cases may be on the rise, the number of people getting seriously ill with the new variant is low thanks to the high uptake of the vaccine.

In Bolton, which has one of the highest case rates for the Delta variant in the country, NHS bosses have said the vaccine appears to have "broken the chain" between the virus and severe illness."

Sunny I don’t know the data behind how immune someone is if they have had covid versus being vaccinated so I would probably say no to that, as people who have had it still need to be vaccinated.

For the other suggestions it sounds reasonable but then the danger is always there of creating a two tier U.K. society based on vaccination status which many have legitimate objections to. My preferred option would be to wait until a large enough percentage of the population have been double vaccinated that restrictions like having to isolate can be lifted for all, regardless of vaccination status.

@noblegiraffe

Well...delay lifting restrictions but do fuck-all about schools?

What do you want to happen to schools?

The Data is telling us children are not dying of it (In fact seem largely untouched by it). That older people are not needing to go in to hospital anymore and that the vaccine seems to have broken the chain. Deaths are decreasing.

I actually think there will be a revolt if the unions make it hard for our kids to go back in to school!

What do you want to happen to schools?

Have you even read noble's posts? How many times does she have to repeat herself for people who can't be bothered reading?

The unions do NOT want to close schools, and nor does the OP. They want mitigation. Mask back, bubbles, ventilation, and vaccine priority for schoolstaff who haven't yet been called, among other things.

@saraclara

What do you want to happen to schools?

Have you even read noble's posts? How many times does she have to repeat herself for people who can't be bothered reading?

The unions do NOT want to close schools, and nor does the OP. They want mitigation. Mask back, bubbles, ventilation, and vaccine priority for schoolstaff who haven't yet been called, among other things.

But what happens if those things just cannot not be realistically achieved?

what happens then?

That’s the point. Those things are unlikely to happen in the remaining 6/7 weeks of term.

It’s also correct that there are hotspots of infection. Why should all children suffer. Why should it be a blanket approach. We’ve had zero cases in either of my kids schools for months. In fact I think it was December.
We’ve never had to isolate.

It’s frustrating if you have children or a teacher in an area with increasing cases. Though I still don’t think cases are leading to increased deaths.

Time to get everything back to normal for the kids. I don’t even think they should be in bubbles anymore as they are missing so much.

What do you want to happen to schools?

Literally wrote the OP of this thread answering this question.

Why should it be a blanket approach.

Well I’ve not argued for this.

Ah ok. So just masks in hotspots then?

See my OP, this is already the case.

However that approach does rely on the new variant being rigorously dealt with and contained in those hotspots. If it is not being contained, then measures like masks may need to be returned to all schools.

Masks are still in place in Scottish schools - secondary anyway.

I’m happy for my kids to be vaccinated but I want it to come with no more obligation to isolate as contacts. There needs to be an actual tangible benefit for them to be vaccinated against a disease that poses them low risk and where all adults have been offered the vaccine.

I agree @RedcurrantPuff

Happy for them to be vaccinated but let’s be honest as healthy young kids it’s for the greater good. They’ve suffered enough so end all the isolation rubbish as soon as possible.

I also think there should be additional mitigation for CV/CEV children - again, the private schools are doing this. If you have a CEV child etc in your class, many are still wearing masks around that child. Or is there a fear that such children might be ostracised in the state sector?
How do you know that isn't happening in the state sector?

@RedcurrantPuff

Masks are still in place in Scottish schools - secondary anyway.

I’m happy for my kids to be vaccinated but I want it to come with no more obligation to isolate as contacts. There needs to be an actual tangible benefit for them to be vaccinated against a disease that poses them low risk and where all adults have been offered the vaccine.

This is exactly what is happening here. Once you're two weeks past your second dose you no longer have to quarantine or isolate.

Also, the vaccinated kids know that they are making school safer for their immunocompromised friends - to many of them that's also a tangible benefit.