Start of third wave - what will this actually mean?

[Moonme]

With so many of the population vaccinated what do you think a third wave means? Will we need another lockdown? 😩

Covid-19: UK in early stages of third wave - scientist www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57304515

HRTWT so apologies if this has already been said, but some of the people admitted to hospital last week became eligible for their first jab while they were in there, so they were in their 30s.

And in the last week or so three or four people in their 40s have died of covid and one person in the 10-19 age group.

In the last two weeks people have died of covid in all age groups except 0-9, 20-29, and 30-39.

Hospital admissions depend on the number of cases. The more cases, the higher the R, the more admissions go up.

This chart models how the R going up increases hospital admissions after Step 3.

An R of 0.9 is green, 1.2 is blue, 1.5 is yellow, and 1.8 is red.

A good nuanced thread on twitter. I don't know what to think anymore... I'd favour caution, but I don't think we should be freaking out either.

twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1397995388267810818?s=19

@MarshaBradyo

Variants happen less often when a virus is given little chance to spread.

‘Less often’ is not never is it? So the idea that we’re going to stop new variants arising by vaccinating people (when millions in the country and throughout the world are still unvaccinated) is nonsense.

Then you know exponential growth depends on the current power. It can be flat or even decreasing. Exponential growth is exactly the right term until you reach the point where the limit of the population size comes into play (when more complex models are needed), and thankfully the proportion of infected people has not got that high in the uk.

They've started the vaccination with the elderly, killed the economy, failed to close the borders to India and anyone who attempted to use other routes from India whilst threatening us with 10k fines for anyone going on holiday and now they are worried about a 3rd wave approaching? No I really don't care anymore, I lost more than I have gained by staying indoors.

These approaches are making me loose trust in the whole vaccination programme as well as making me believe this is all to be done to save the failing NHS and saving lives. They are pushing me to believe more on the conspiracy theorists, at least they don't contradict and have a point!

I suspect with evident general British Covid fatigued and increasingly fewer lockdown lovers - we will not see another set of soft semi instructional lockdown requests unless the NHS is overwhelmed and there are fatalities within the older vaccinated cohorts and younger unvaccinated adults and children. Long post Covid syndrome has not been a major factor in previous requests to stay at home and a closing of certain in person business sectors. Lockdowns are meaningless with thousands of daily direct and indirect Covid importation flights anyway. In addition many fellow Brits (and dual nationals with family overseas etc) are looking forward to and will continue to mix globally on international trips irrespective of (unenforced/unenforceable) rules and will potentially allow more vectors for mutations and super spreading of evolving more contagious vaccines escaping variants which are yet (if at all) to be sequenced. I therefore do not envisage any further soft lockdowns. The threshold for any future lockdowns will possibly be much higher in terms of public health damage as the economic costs will be too much if this is perpetual. Just to clarify real lockdowns are like those overseas where liberties like movements out of home are actually monitored etc and permitted via paperwork while despite the world beating corruption and costs we don’t have a fit for purpose test, track, trace and isolate system because civil liberties and personal data privacy is more important than death itself supposedly. We also have the medically relaxed concept of governmental trust in the public to do the sensible and right thing like having opportunities for abuse of trust with some fraudulent self diagnosed declaring of mask exemption and not knowing what close public personal space proximity means etc etc. We have 0.1-0.2 million Covid fatalities for a reason but these numbers don’t mean much and not respected unless you are within those impacted medically, mentally or economically.

[quote bumbleymummy]@MarshaBradyo

Variants happen less often when a virus is given little chance to spread.

‘Less often’ is not never is it? So the idea that we’re going to stop new variants arising by vaccinating people (when millions in the country and throughout the world are still unvaccinated) is nonsense.[/quote]
Exactly. Even in a country with the strictest border control and lowest number of cases overall a VOC can get in. Cases in Aus atm.

@SonnetForSpring

The ignorance and callousness on mn is astounding. I am praying mn is not representative of the UK population. No better than mammals who don't have consciousness.

The ignorance and callousness towards those who have lost their livelihoods, mental health, loved ones they've not been able to day goodbye to, homes, means of escape from DV, access to healthcare and more on MN is astounding. They're repeatedly called whiners, selfish, heartless and worse by those no better than mammals who don't have consciousness.

we don’t have a fit for purpose test, track, trace and isolate system because civil liberties and personal data privacy is more important than death itself supposedly

We don't have and efficient t&t system because we have an inept government. Nothing to do with civil liberties.

We also have the medically relaxed concept of governmental trust in the public to do the sensible and right thing like having opportunities for abuse of trust with some fraudulent self diagnosed declaring of mask exemption

How would you police mask exemption?

I really think we need to keep to a middle ground.
There can’t be another full lockdown for this virus. However going ahead with opening more doesn’t seem sensible at the moment. We don’t want to go backwards so should stay at this level with masks, social distancing etc mitigating some risk while still trying to get the economy going again where possible and a more normal looking life resuming.
Once we are 3 weeks past offering vaccines to all adults would be the time to do the 21st June unlock.

We don't have and efficient t&t system because we have an inept government. Nothing to do with civil liberties.

That’s not true though. No western democracy has pulled off a decent T&T system.

It’s extremely helpful to have a legal set up whereby the government can command access to all data collected about you. Look at South Korea. The government is legally allowed to use your phone/bank card data to track your movements. They can request access to all CCTV footage. They can and do publish the geo locations of those diagnosed with Covid. These things are invaluable for T&T.

@BiniorellaSun

I really think we need to keep to a middle ground. There can’t be another full lockdown for this virus. However going ahead with opening more doesn’t seem sensible at the moment. We don’t want to go backwards so should stay at this level with masks, social distancing etc mitigating some risk while still trying to get the economy going again where possible and a more normal looking life resuming. Once we are 3 weeks past offering vaccines to all adults would be the time to do the 21st June unlock.

That's September at the earliest.

When the third dose boosters start.

The reason there's another wave, and there will be another lockdown is that our government have no plans to stop it.

They'll do what they have always done; let it go until infrastructure is threatened. Then call a lockdown.

As DC said at the select committee -.....

“You might think somewhere there must be a quiet calm centre like in a James Bond movie where you open the door and there is where the ninjas are who actually know what they are doing. There are no ninjas. There is no door.”

@SonnetForSpring

The ignorance and callousness on mn is astounding. I am praying mn is not representative of the UK population. No better than mammals who don't have consciousness.

What kind of mammal doesn't have consciousness?

The reason there's another wave, and there will be another lockdown is that our government have no plans to stop it.

I don't know if we will need a lockdown or it will just be shite and messy from now on, but on the government having no plans I 100% agree. If we had partially held back on step three - not staying completely in step two but some caution - we would have had a chance to get on top of it. Johnson always acts too late and never takes enough care. He is completely useless. The whole government is.

The news suggested that they want all over 50's to have had second vaccine dose before final restrictions lifted.

Good luck with that with the anti vax lot spreading rubbish

@Reallybadidea

I work in ICU. We're just starting to see quite young people being admitted with covid again for the first time in months. It's quite upsetting, I'm not sure how any of us can bear to go through another surge again. I hope that won't happen, but also quite upsetting to see people say that they don't care

I'm so sorry, @Reallybadidea. I really hope that this doesn't become another huge surge. The pandemic has been so mishandled by the UK government since February 2020, it is so frustrating, the only thing which has been done right (more by accident than design, I can't help feeling, and thanks to the NHS) is the vaccination roll-out. Thank you for your sterling work. I really hope things improve soon.

The younger adults (18-29) are at the highest risk of catching and spreading Covid. And those aren’t vaccinated yet. So opening stuff up will spread it amongst those. Schoolchildren are also not vaccinated so once it spreads amongst the population, it’ll go through schoolchildren as well.

Vaccinating the entire population is the only way these waves will stop IMO.

How do you define a " wave"?

It’s an increase that doesn’t go back down without restrictive measures.

@TheKeatingFive

We don't have and efficient t&t system because we have an inept government. Nothing to do with civil liberties.

That’s not true though. No western democracy has pulled off a decent T&T system.

It’s extremely helpful to have a legal set up whereby the government can command access to all data collected about you. Look at South Korea. The government is legally allowed to use your phone/bank card data to track your movements. They can request access to all CCTV footage. They can and do publish the geo locations of those diagnosed with Covid. These things are invaluable for T&T.

Sounds awful!

@aiwblam

It’s an increase that doesn’t go back down without restrictive measures.

Thanks!

IMO anyway

@aiwblam

It’s an increase that doesn’t go back down without restrictive measures.

An increase in what? Out of interest

Hospitalisation, deaths or cases

Are cases an issue if other two don’t follow