Start of third wave - what will this actually mean?

[Moonme]

With so many of the population vaccinated what do you think a third wave means? Will we need another lockdown? 😩

Covid-19: UK in early stages of third wave - scientist www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57304515

@MarshaBradyo

Thecats yep. We don’t know, it all comes down to hospital numbers in two weeks. Trying to keep a bit zen about it.

The most vulnerable are fully vaccinated. The one dose people, including myself, are extremely unlikely to need to go to hospital if we catch Covid

Totally agree but a very small % of a large number will cripple the NHS.

As Marsha says, the next 2 weeks are crucial.

FWIW i have spent many months, twice, training for a sporting event in France, only for it to be cancelled, so nothing would make me happier to see covid consigned to history, i am no doomdayer

@PrincessNutNuts

38.5% of the U.K. population is fully vaccinated now.

40.9% completely unvaccinated.

20.6% have had one dose.

Ok let's do some quick and easy maths. (Rough numbers so not fully accurate)

Let's round up the fully vaccinated to 40% and say that 2 jabs gives 75% protection from catching covid (I can't find an actual number from catching it, but the 80% is what's been bandied about). This gives a 30% reduction in r number.
Then let's add the 26.9% who've had one dose, let's say 25% for ease of calculations, and say 30% protection (I know its a little more), that gives another 7.5% to add to the reduction in r rate. So we're at a 32.5% reduction, so far...
Then we have every body who has already had it, again playing it say that's another 10% on top of that. So now we're at a 42.5% reduction in the pool of potential victims, which will translate to the r rate being reduced. Next we have a high percentage who don't seem to catch it, despite living in the same household.and having very close contact with someone who does.....plus of those in each of the vaccinated categories who do catch it are 50% less likely to pass it on. All of this adds up to a substantial reduction in the r rate, perhaps by as much as 50%

@Whatever9999 You forgot to factor in the Indian Variant, with increased transmissibility over Old Covid of approximately 1.6 x 1.6 = 2.56.

Using this and your optimistic figure of 50% gives

Old Covid R0 = 3,

Indian Variant + vaccines R0 = 3 x 2.56 x 0.5 = 3.975.

You still think we can carry on without reintroducing restrictions?

@Whatever9999 I appreciate your post, but I agree with @NannyAndJohn that with current vaccination status but without NPIs we're still looking at an R of well over 3.

And don't forget the hair-raising new Delta secondary attack rate of 67%. The Bolton or Blackburn public health bod I saw on the news said it was a striking difference now that much more often the whole household goes down with it.

[quote NannyAndJohn]@Whatever9999 You forgot to factor in the Indian Variant, with increased transmissibility over Old Covid of approximately 1.6 x 1.6 = 2.56.

Using this and your optimistic figure of 50% gives

Old Covid R0 = 3,

Indian Variant + vaccines R0 = 3 x 2.56 x 0.5 = 3.975.

You still think we can carry on without reintroducing restrictions?[/quote]
Yes I do, because of those unvaccinated the risks of serious illness or death are miniscule. Ffs we've had the upto 30% asymptomatic statistic rammed down our throats for over a year.
Right from the start of the easing we've been told it's not going to be about cases from here on in, it's about the numbers in hospital (not admissions because an admission can mean a 4hr stay) and deaths. And before you start harking on about the average age of admission dropping, that only proves the vaccines are doing what they should.

[quote NannyAndJohn]@Whatever9999 You forgot to factor in the Indian Variant, with increased transmissibility over Old Covid of approximately 1.6 x 1.6 = 2.56.

Using this and your optimistic figure of 50% gives

Old Covid R0 = 3,

Indian Variant + vaccines R0 = 3 x 2.56 x 0.5 = 3.975.

You still think we can carry on without reintroducing restrictions?[/quote]
I'm not sure that's how it is calculated, you're saying here the natural r rate o the Indian variant is almost 8? A quick google suggest the Kent vriant raised R by 0.7. Assuming the Indian variant has the same increase over the Kent variant then that is an increase of R of 1.4 over Old Covid.

So Old Covid R0 = 3
Kent R0 = 3.7
Indian R0 = 4.4
Indian + vaccines and natural immunity R0 = 2.2

Then you need to take into account that the vaccines greatly reduce hospitalisations and deaths, so you've got a reduced R rate and reduced lethality.

India has seen a similar lower age of admissions with this variant so maybe it's the variant and not the vaccines?

Even a 4 hour admission would use NHS resources including staff and contribute to the NHS being overwhelmed.

And being ill enough to be admitted rather than just observed in A&E is a valid indicator of how ill people are getting and what level of treatment they are requiring.

I'm afraid it is, @Overthebow. Rates are multiplicative, not additive.

The Kent Variant was approximately 60% more transmissible than Old Covid, hence giving it an R0 of 3 x 1.6 = 4.8.

The Indian Variant is approximately 60% (though that may well be an underestimate) more transmissible than the Kent Variant, giving it an R0 of 4.8 x 1.6 = 7.68. Adding the vaccine effect to this gives 7.68 x 0.5 = 3.975.

Oh and I forgot to factor in behaviour. Yes some people are happy to mix, but the majority are still being cautious and only mixing in stable groups. Even the children at school are mixing in relatively stable (although larger) groups, which means that there is a limited amount of people for the virus to infect if someone does get it. And let's not forget that the April peak did not coincide with lockdown, but rather the week before when people became more cautious.
While I'm not particularly nervous about catching covid (pretty sure I've had it and while not at all pleasant I did eventually get over it), certain behaviours such as keeping my distance have become ingrained over the last year and from what I can see that's the same with at least a large.minority

What about the impact though about restrictions not being lifted? Businesses are already saying if he holds back they wont open up.

I have always said that the end of July is a much more realistic date but I think the approach now has to be a hybrid approach - let the remaining businesses open but keep social distancing and masks. Indeed I think for shops etc we could keep masks throughout the summer holidays and keep in for now the idea of being sensible with social distancing and households.

And push through the vaccines.

The R number isn’t the be all and end all once we have vaccines that prevent serious illness and death. The R number of measles is about 15.

Regarding measles, the MMR vaccine has both the required take up in the at-risk population, and an efficacy of ~97%. Covid vaccines have neither, nowhere near.

It's been planned all along , all restrictions were never going to be lifted on June 21st. They HAVE to keep some sort of lockdown going to administer the vaccine which has only been approved for emergency use. Maybe once more people have been vaccinated we'll go back to some sort of normal but the fact that the covid 'project' on the world banking system is set end 2025 (approx) and they are still advertising for covid marshals and running advertising campaigns at the cost of millions for the next couple of years I can't see it ending before they have what they need out of this.

@NannyAndJohn

Regarding measles, the MMR vaccine has both the required take up in the at-risk population, and an efficacy of ~97%. Covid vaccines have neither, nowhere near.

But measles vaccine only needs that level of uptake because it’s so infectious.

@Ilovewatermelon

It's been planned all along , all restrictions were never going to be lifted on June 21st. They HAVE to keep some sort of lockdown going to administer the vaccine which has only been approved for emergency use. Maybe once more people have been vaccinated we'll go back to some sort of normal but the fact that the covid 'project' on the world banking system is set end 2025 (approx) and they are still advertising for covid marshals and running advertising campaigns at the cost of millions for the next couple of years I can't see it ending before they have what they need out of this.

@NannyAndJohn

I'm afraid it is, *@Overthebow*. Rates are multiplicative, not additive.

The Kent Variant was approximately 60% more transmissible than Old Covid, hence giving it an R0 of 3 x 1.6 = 4.8.

The Indian Variant is approximately 60% (though that may well be an underestimate) more transmissible than the Kent Variant, giving it an R0 of 4.8 x 1.6 = 7.68. Adding the vaccine effect to this gives 7.68 x 0.5 = 3.975.

“I’m afraid...”

Bingo

@Ilovewatermelon

It's been planned all along , all restrictions were never going to be lifted on June 21st. They HAVE to keep some sort of lockdown going to administer the vaccine which has only been approved for emergency use. Maybe once more people have been vaccinated we'll go back to some sort of normal but the fact that the covid 'project' on the world banking system is set end 2025 (approx) and they are still advertising for covid marshals and running advertising campaigns at the cost of millions for the next couple of years I can't see it ending before they have what they need out of this.

Scaremongering

[quote NannyAndJohn]@Whatever9999 You forgot to factor in the Indian Variant, with increased transmissibility over Old Covid of approximately 1.6 x 1.6 = 2.56.

Using this and your optimistic figure of 50% gives

Old Covid R0 = 3,

Indian Variant + vaccines R0 = 3 x 2.56 x 0.5 = 3.975.

You still think we can carry on without reintroducing restrictions?[/quote]
Sorry but just need to correct your maths, its been bugging me last few days.

If the alpha varient is 60% more transmissible than the original and the delta is 40% more transmissible than alpha (as stated by Hannock) then the maths comes out as
The delta varient being 84% more transmissible than the original varient, not 320% as you have it.
(1.4×0.6=0.84) which means that if the original r rate was 3, the new r rate would be 5.52, then with a 50% reduction it would be 2.76

Still not 1 I'll admit, but lower than your calculations and there are still other factors to consider, including the fact that the vast majority with symptom are isolating along with their families meaning that they won't be passing it on to as.many people.

"I’d also bet there aren’t many that wouldn’t willingly have their young ones vaccinated (no judgement either way, here) especially as Covid has never been a risk to this age group."

When I had the BCG, TB wasn't a particular risk to my age group because it wasn't around much and the vaccine doesn't work on most strains anyway. When I had the rubella jab, rubella wasn't a risk to me, only to a potential unborn child.
But you're right, people will be thinking more about this one and more likely to withdraw their child.
I still think the convenience of being able to do it at school will help.

@Ilovewatermelon

It's been planned all along , all restrictions were never going to be lifted on June 21st. They HAVE to keep some sort of lockdown going to administer the vaccine which has only been approved for emergency use. Maybe once more people have been vaccinated we'll go back to some sort of normal but the fact that the covid 'project' on the world banking system is set end 2025 (approx) and they are still advertising for covid marshals and running advertising campaigns at the cost of millions for the next couple of years I can't see it ending before they have what they need out of this.

Well Said. I wish people could see what's really happening. They will want us to have a 3rd dose of vaccine etc. This will never end 😞 I'm fed up I want my life back I want to go home to see my family I'm so so so angry with everyone still going along with this charade.

@imforourfreedomback
Well Said. I wish people could see what's really happening. They will want us to have a 3rd dose of vaccine etc. This will never end 😞 I'm fed up I want my life back I want to go home to see my family I'm so so so angry with everyone still going along with this charade

Exactly , freedoms, livelihoods, people's sanity, lives!! are all being lost the longer we comply.

It's very sad that (like flu) the very elderly and the very vunerable die but at what cost is this now!! The flu/covid/common colds will ramp up again come autumn, and more of these people (like every winter) will die, but this will most likely be blamed on a new variant or lack of vaccine uptake so they can continue to keep us under some sort of restrictions.

I just hope people aren't thinking of entering their children into this 'vaccine' trial and stop this nonsense.

And to those who can only reply with this is the exact reason we are in this mess. No real debate these days!!

It's members of Sage and what they tell the BBC to tell you. They wouldn't have scientists / lawyers / doctors on with a difference of opinion because they need everyone to stay in line and do as they say. DO SOME RESEARCH

And before you start harking on about the average age of admission dropping, that only proves the vaccines are doing what they should.

Or maybe it shows that lots of oldies have already died and most of the rest are still in hiding?