Start of third wave - what will this actually mean?

[Moonme]

With so many of the population vaccinated what do you think a third wave means? Will we need another lockdown? 😩

Covid-19: UK in early stages of third wave - scientist www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57304515

So "vaccine in sight" - yes, meaningful protection yet? - no.

In a group of people who are highly unlikely to experience anything other than mild illness if they get Covid. And that's with there being low numbers of the virus at present with the summer ahead of us.

Have you forgotten how staff shortages were impacting things at the beginning?

No. But that was a very different situation. There are so many reasons why things are different now. The vaccine is the main one.

"We are very definitely not "trying to restrict the spread to prevent new variants which may well affect much younger people or be vaccine resistant" because there is absolutely not a shred of science in that statement. New strains of any virus occur with regularity, and restricting the spread of a virus has absolutely NO impact on the mutation rate. All living organisms evolve. The life span of a virus means that the evolve quickly compared to more complex life forms. Variations will occur no matter what you do."

That is interesting. I have a doctor friend (not a virologist) who believes the opposite.

"Then it’s another slog to actually vaccinate every child in the country... how long will that take?"

Why can't it be done much more quickly than adults. No appointments needed, vaccines at school.

As long as no change in freedom and gov thinks - “even if a third wave we crack on nonetheless” (fingers crossed, but sadly in vain I feel if there was a third wave)

Then I really don’t care anymore if there is a third wave. I really don’t

I don't understand why a scientist is using the term "exponential" incorrectly. Annoys me every single time.

My feeling is that we are reaching a stage where we'll simply have to learn to live with the virus, whatever that entails. We can't keep on and on having lockdowns. It would be feasible to maintain some level of caution - masks, for instance, regular sanitising, but we can't stay apart from friends and family forever, and we can't keep closing businesses.

There must be a natural end point to the level of serious illness leading to death - a stage where the majority of people who were going to die of or with Covid have sadly already done so.

I've stuck rigidly to the rules - I am generally a law-abiding person and not wildly sociable in normal time - but I think another lockdown would exhaust even my tolerance.

@Gwenhwyfar

"Then it’s another slog to actually vaccinate every child in the country... how long will that take?"

Why can't it be done much more quickly than adults. No appointments needed, vaccines at school.

It still won’t be quick.

And we still need to wait for medical approval.

I’d also bet there aren’t many that wouldn’t willingly have their young ones vaccinated (no judgement either way, here) especially as Covid has never been a risk to this age group.

Frustrated and concerned about the false belief that all vulnerable groups are vaccinated across the country and if they're not, it's their own fault. In Scotland, many group 6 CV and over 50s haven't had 2nd doses yet. Over 40s only going now for first doses in many areas. There are millions with only limited or partial protection at this point through no fault of their own.

@Halloweenrainbow

Frustrated and concerned about the false belief that all vulnerable groups are vaccinated across the country and if they're not, it's their own fault. In Scotland, many group 6 CV and over 50s haven't had 2nd doses yet. Over 40s only going now for first doses in many areas. There are millions with only limited or partial protection at this point through no fault of their own.

Scotland has different lockdown rules than England though doesn't it and I thought they were stricter?

@Spikeyball

I don't understand why a scientist is using the term "exponential" incorrectly. Annoys me every single time.

Perhaps you should attend a basic maths course so you can learn what it means?

@Reallybadidea

I work in ICU. We're just starting to see quite young people being admitted with covid again for the first time in months. It's quite upsetting, I'm not sure how any of us can bear to go through another surge again. I hope that won't happen, but also quite upsetting to see people say that they don't care

870 covid patients in hospital at the moment across the entire U.K.

Wave #1
It's only flu - we'll be fine.

Wave #2
We've got herd immunity - it won't happen!

Wave #3
Vaccines!

At what point do you think the idiots will shut up?
Wave #6?.... or is it just that idiots are incapable of learning the simple truth that experts know best?

@Beeeeeeeeeeeeeep

870 covid patients in hospital at the moment across the entire U.K.

Guess the whole concept of exponential growth - wave just beginning etc, passed you right by huh??

"Perhaps you should attend a basic maths course so you can learn what it means?"

No need. I have a degree in it.

[quote strangeshapedpotato]@Beeeeeeeeeeeeeep

870 covid patients in hospital at the moment across the entire U.K.

Guess the whole concept of exponential growth - wave just beginning etc, passed you right by huh??[/quote]
No, but the pp said numbers of young people in her ICU were rising. I merely pointed out that we still only have 870 covid patients in hospital across the U.K. meaning there can't be that many in that poster's ICU in actuality.

@OverTheRubicon

If there are people with meaningful life expectancies getting very ill or dying then I'd sadly but totally understand locking back down.

What does that even mean?!

So if someone doesn’t have a “meaningful” life expectancy we should just leave them to fend for themselves and not take any actions to protect them...

Honestly!!

"No, but the pp said numbers of young people in her ICU were rising. I merely pointed out that we still only have 870 covid patients in hospital across the U.K. meaning there can't be that many in that poster's ICU in actuality."

To be fair, I think any additional ICU patients are a lot of work. It's called Intensive Care for a reason.

@Fleek

So "vaccine in sight" - yes, meaningful protection yet? - no.

In a group of people who are highly unlikely to experience anything other than mild illness if they get Covid. And that's with there being low numbers of the virus at present with the summer ahead of us.

I was not making any comment on that. I was responding to someone who was suggesting school staff are better protected at the moment than they actually are.

And of course, remember it is about spreading things. I have been in school every school day since last March. I have always been far more worried about spreading anything to the more vulnerable members of our school community than I have been about myself.

It is also the case that the two staff members in our school who suffered worst with Covid were amongst the youngest and they passed it on to their vulnerable parents.

Things are not always simple.

I think another lockdown and closure of schools would be devastating. I would welcome an open conversation about how we best prevent that.

There is currently some suggestion that school data is being supressed, for example, and I do not think that is helpful to an honest conversation about the way forward. Nor do I think that airily waving our hands about teachers being mostly young is fair or helpful.
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/covid-schools-government-legal-challenge-b1856670.html

The ONLY thing that matters is that the NHS is not overwhelmed.

Except that it isn't.

So how long does this go on for?
As long as it needs to for the sake of the long term management of the virus.

This is the newest reason being given but it really is nonsense.
I'm sure in your degree in epidemiology, you learned about how things can change when there is a novel virus, things will change as knowledge about it evolves?

We are not going to be able to prevent new variants. It’s a virus, it mutates. There will always be new variants.

Variants happen less often when a virus is given little chance to spread.

There are millions of unvaccinated people in this country (mainly children) never mind worldwide.
Which is why hanging off a few weeks with opening up fully is a great idea, to ensure more people are vaccinated. You make a great argument for developed nations to dig deeper in their pockets to vaccinate those in developing nations.

I’m really not sure why people think this is in any way viable.

I'm really not sure why people think they can just will our way out of a global pandemic. You do understand the virus doesn't care about what is viable.

Why do we think our children are more at risk now than they’ve ever been? There is no evidence to suggest this. There may be many more cases in that cohort, but we are talking mild cases

Are we? Of course, you have proof of that?

@Gothichouse40

The PM should never have set a date for the 21st June. He has so annoyed me with constantly setting dates for freedom and then having to back track, he is obviously listening to the money men and not the scientists. Why have a dog and bark yourself. Epidemiologists study and research this stuff nearly all their lives. The PM doesn't seem to listen. We have football players who, to my mind, seem to come before everything and everybody, flying around the world with fans following. Portugal was utter madness but as long as football is fine, f* everyone else. I hope we have not made a huge mistake there. I also advise people to watch the proceedings in Vietnam, I know I will get called doommonger etc, but I find it very suspicious that hardly anything is being mentioned regarding this new hybrid strain. Of course we have the PM's secret wedding to distract us. Im warning people here, this isn't over. The virus does not care what you all want. Please take care everyone.

he didn't. What was said was that 21st June would be the EARLIEST date.

@strangeshapedpotato

Wave #1 It's only flu - we'll be fine.

Wave #2
We've got herd immunity - it won't happen!

Wave #3
Vaccines!

At what point do you think the idiots will shut up?
Wave #6?.... or is it just that idiots are incapable of learning the simple truth that experts know best?

Apart from the oddly aggressive tone in your post when do we move on in your version?

Never? Or do you get to stop putting #numbers

At what point do you think the idiots will shut up?

And how long do you think people are going to carry on like this? Forever?

I know who sounds like an idiot.

It's all about numbers and percentages in the end and the number of hospitalizations reaching peak capacity. A percentage of vaxed patients that would have died otherwise will survive but with a less serious form of the disease but some of that percentage might be so severe so they bed block again. Having a stroll to the local shops today it looks like a percentage are ripping the pants out of this thing to quote Van Tam.

For @Wherediditgoand @MarshaBradyo

The director for public health in Blackburn, Dominic Harrison as reported in The Guardian:
“ In a tweet on Sunday evening, he said: “[Blackburn with Darwen] rates for 15-19s is raised because of 17-18yo rate of over 1050 /100,000. I think late teenage/young adults are struggling most at the moment – we need 12-18 vaccination prioritised in high-transmission areas as soon as judged safe/effective.”