Start of third wave - what will this actually mean?

[Moonme]

With so many of the population vaccinated what do you think a third wave means? Will we need another lockdown? 😩

Covid-19: UK in early stages of third wave - scientist www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57304515

@MintyMabel

It hasn’t changed?

It’s still about hospital capacity.

It has changed. It isn’t only about hospital capacity.

I don’t see why. The only reason we monitor variants or any indicator is to ensure we don’t get into trouble with hospital capacity down the line.

The PM should never have set a date for the 21st June. He has so annoyed me with constantly setting dates for freedom and then having to back track, he is obviously listening to the money men and not the scientists. Why have a dog and bark yourself. Epidemiologists study and research this stuff nearly all their lives. The PM doesn't seem to listen. We have football players who, to my mind, seem to come before everything and everybody, flying around the world with fans following. Portugal was utter madness but as long as football is fine, f* everyone else. I hope we have not made a huge mistake there. I also advise people to watch the proceedings in Vietnam, I know I will get called doommonger etc, but I find it very suspicious that hardly anything is being mentioned regarding this new hybrid strain. Of course we have the PM's secret wedding to distract us. Im warning people here, this isn't over. The virus does not care what you all want. Please take care everyone.

@OverTheRubicon

If there are people with meaningful life expectancies getting very ill or dying then I'd sadly but totally understand locking back down.

If it's rising cases but few deaths or serious illness, and those centred among those who are already very frail or who can chosen not to get vaccinated despite the option - then I'd absolutely not be in favour. It's been too long.

In lockdown my ex had a breakdown, I lost my job and I've not been able to see my parents, who live overseas and in my dad's case has a life expectancy of 1-2 years max. I'm done.

"meaningful life expectancies" W the actual F does that mean?

It would actually be our 4th wave.

First last March.
Second last November.
Third this January.

Not sure I can take another redeployment to ICU tbh.

I'm concerned about how it will spread in schools amongst young people and many young unvaccinated schools staff. We've already seen cases popping up and year groups isolating, I think the coming half term is likely to be very disruptive for school and nursery staff, children within them and their families.

@sherrystrull

I'm concerned about how it will spread in schools amongst young people and many young unvaccinated schools staff. We've already seen cases popping up and year groups isolating, I think the coming half term is likely to be very disruptive for school and nursery staff, children within them and their families.

The vaccination is now available to anyone over 30, and I'd expect that to be to 29, 28, 27 over the next couple of weeks. I know that it takes a couple of weeks to build efficacy and I know it needs to both does for best effect, but there can't be that many school staff still with no vaccine in sight surely.

@Gothichouse40

The PM should never have set a date for the 21st June. He has so annoyed me with constantly setting dates for freedom and then having to back track, he is obviously listening to the money men and not the scientists. Why have a dog and bark yourself. Epidemiologists study and research this stuff nearly all their lives. The PM doesn't seem to listen. We have football players who, to my mind, seem to come before everything and everybody, flying around the world with fans following. Portugal was utter madness but as long as football is fine, f* everyone else. I hope we have not made a huge mistake there. I also advise people to watch the proceedings in Vietnam, I know I will get called doommonger etc, but I find it very suspicious that hardly anything is being mentioned regarding this new hybrid strain. Of course we have the PM's secret wedding to distract us. Im warning people here, this isn't over. The virus does not care what you all want. Please take care everyone.

To be fair though scientists only have to worry about covid, they don't have to consider the economy and the impact of lockdown on the population. Of course the ideal solution re covid is to keep locking down, but it doesn't mean it's the ideal choice for the country as a whole. It feeds into the decisions made, but shouldn't be the final say.

im warning people here, this isn't over. The virus does not care what you all want.

Where do we draw the line though? Very very very few of those currently in hospital were double vaccinated, which suggests they are working currently. When everyone has had both do we just fully open? Do we wait forever? Do we live in an infinite cycle of lockdowns and reopening?

I know that it takes a couple of weeks to build efficacy and I know it needs to both does for best effect, but there can't be that many school staff still with no vaccine in sight surely.

Average age of teachers = 33.

Many primaries in particular are wholly staffed by teachers under 30 except for the head. Remember that you can be qualified as a teacher by 21 / 22, and the majority leave the profession within 5 years.

3 weeks minimum to wait for vaccine + 3 weeks for efficacy - and then another 5 weeks for the second dose to life that up to effectiveness against indian variant? That gets us closer to September than now.....

Of course the ideal solution re covid is to keep locking down, but it doesn't mean it's the ideal choice for the country as a whole.

the decision is not 'to completely release' vs 'return to full lockdown'.

Holding at the current state of opening seems to me a much better option than a brief 'freedom' followed by a hard lockdown with non-essential retail and hospitality closed, no meeting indoors etc etc

@Reachersloveinterest

Yes not far away but still enough to make the next 6 or 7 weeks a concern.

In addition, multiple periods of isolation over the next few weeks when children test positive (and their bubble including staff have to isolate) will be hard to do when most other people are out in restaurants, at the cinema etc.

I've had many periods of isolation over the last year when my children's bubble, my class bubble, my family had covid etc and it was much easier to isolate when most people were also at home and things were shut.

@MintyMabel

The reason for lockdown is to avoid overwhelming the NHS. If that isn't happening, no lockdown needed

Why do people keep saying this? The reason in the beginning was to protect the NHS. Now we are trying to restrict the spread to prevent new variants which may well affect much younger people or be vaccine resistant. With the way it is spreading through schools our kids are becoming guinea pigs. Highest case rates in 10-14 year olds. You want your kids to be more at risk?

There has been a possible very small increase in the number of cases amongst some school age groups - the least likely to have serious or even symptomatic cases - to 0.2%. The reports say that "because of low positivity rates, caution should be taken in over-interpreting small movements in the latest trends." www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26

We are very definitely not "trying to restrict the spread to prevent new variants which may well affect much younger people or be vaccine resistant" because there is absolutely not a shred of science in that statement. New strains of any virus occur with regularity, and restricting the spread of a virus has absolutely NO impact on the mutation rate. All living organisms evolve. The life span of a virus means that the evolve quickly compared to more complex life forms. Variations will occur no matter what you do.

There is no evidence that any new variant will affect much younger people than any other strain - that is hysterical speculation.
There is no evidence that any strain in becoming vaccine resistant - that is hysterical speculation.
Children are not being used as guinea pigs for anything - that is inconceivable conspiracy theory.

Despite the tragic loss of life to this novel virus, this is just nature. The weak and vulnerable have always been subject to the highest risk of death from infections. What has changed is that now we have the ability to have a greater impact on changing that... and social media to peddle utter rubbish and hysteria.

Anyone who wants to continue their own personal lockdown is welcome to do so. I won't be. There are far scarier things out there than this virus - several of them regularly post on MumsNet.

@cantkeepawayforever

I know that it takes a couple of weeks to build efficacy and I know it needs to both does for best effect, but there can't be that many school staff still with no vaccine in sight surely.

Average age of teachers = 33.

Many primaries in particular are wholly staffed by teachers under 30 except for the head. Remember that you can be qualified as a teacher by 21 / 22, and the majority leave the profession within 5 years.

3 weeks minimum to wait for vaccine + 3 weeks for efficacy - and then another 5 weeks for the second dose to life that up to effectiveness against indian variant? That gets us closer to September than now.....

So what's your solution? Shut the schools again?

As an aside, I am an ex - teacher. Every school I worked in, and all of the 3 schools my children have attended, had an average age of teachers much higher than 33. I realise they may not be reflective of the country as a whole.
And a quick google search gives the average age of teachers in the U.K. as 39.

I personally don't want schools to shut. However, some empathy from people not in that situation towards staff and families would be great.

Oh and many of the staff at my school have had vaccines both first and second doses delayed as they've been isolating and had to wait or change appointments. Don't assume school staff are having them as soon as they are released for their age group.

The ignorance and callousness on mn is astounding. I am praying mn is not representative of the UK population. No better than mammals who don't have consciousness.

@MintyMabel

The reason for lockdown is to avoid overwhelming the NHS. If that isn't happening, no lockdown needed

Why do people keep saying this? The reason in the beginning was to protect the NHS. Now we are trying to restrict the spread to prevent new variants which may well affect much younger people or be vaccine resistant. With the way it is spreading through schools our kids are becoming guinea pigs. Highest case rates in 10-14 year olds. You want your kids to be more at risk?

This is the newest reason being given but it really is nonsense. We are not going to be able to prevent new variants. It’s a virus, it mutates. There will always be new variants. There are millions of unvaccinated people in this country (mainly children) never mind worldwide. I’m really not sure why people think this is in any way viable.

We are very definitely not "trying to restrict the spread to prevent new variants which may well affect much younger people or be vaccine resistant" because there is absolutely not a shred of science in that statement. New strains of any virus occur with regularity, and restricting the spread of a virus has absolutely NO impact on the mutation rate. All living organisms evolve. The life span of a virus means that the evolve quickly compared to more complex life forms. Variations will occur no matter what you do.

@Moondust001 why post things that are patently untrue? Either you know you're spreading misinformation, or you're just saying things with certainty when you don't understand what you're talking about

the mutation rate of a virus is directly linked to rate of transmission. Genetic material only has the chance to mutate when it is being replicated, as this is when mistakes can occur. The higher the transmission, the higher the mutation rate, the higher the chance of emergence of new strains.

This is why we haven't heard about new strains from places with good control over the pandemic like NZ and Aus

There is no evidence that any strain in becoming vaccine resistant - that is hysterical speculation.
Again, this incorrect. There is evidence that some strains have a level of resistance against previous immunity (from vaccines or infection), and it something that we need to be cautious of. It's certainly not "hysterical speculation"

@godmum56 She’s probably referring to people in their 80s/90s who don’t have a significant amount of time left anyway - compared to young people who could have decades ahead of them.

@cantkeepawayforever

I know that it takes a couple of weeks to build efficacy and I know it needs to both does for best effect, but there can't be that many school staff still with no vaccine in sight surely.

Average age of teachers = 33.

Many primaries in particular are wholly staffed by teachers under 30 except for the head. Remember that you can be qualified as a teacher by 21 / 22, and the majority leave the profession within 5 years.

3 weeks minimum to wait for vaccine + 3 weeks for efficacy - and then another 5 weeks for the second dose to life that up to effectiveness against indian variant? That gets us closer to September than now.....

Average age of a teacher is actually 39

@cantkeepawayforever

I know that it takes a couple of weeks to build efficacy and I know it needs to both does for best effect, but there can't be that many school staff still with no vaccine in sight surely.

Average age of teachers = 33.

Many primaries in particular are wholly staffed by teachers under 30 except for the head. Remember that you can be qualified as a teacher by 21 / 22, and the majority leave the profession within 5 years.

3 weeks minimum to wait for vaccine + 3 weeks for efficacy - and then another 5 weeks for the second dose to life that up to effectiveness against indian variant? That gets us closer to September than now.....

I work in a school and in my close team of six I am the only one who is vaccinated.

Half of my team have now been called to book their vaccines - first jab mid June, second jab mid September. So three weeks after that is October.

The other half are in their twenties so have not been called yet so even later.

So "vaccine in sight" - yes, meaningful protection yet? - no.

@MintyMabel

The reason for lockdown is to avoid overwhelming the NHS. If that isn't happening, no lockdown needed

Why do people keep saying this? The reason in the beginning was to protect the NHS. Now we are trying to restrict the spread to prevent new variants which may well affect much younger people or be vaccine resistant. With the way it is spreading through schools our kids are becoming guinea pigs. Highest case rates in 10-14 year olds. You want your kids to be more at risk?

So how long does this go on for? Vaccines haven’t been approved for the under 16s and who knows how long that will take.

Then it’s another slog to actually vaccinate every child in the country... how long will that take?

Why do we think our children are more at risk now than they’ve ever been? There is no evidence to suggest this. There may be many more cases in that cohort, but we are talking mild cases...

If any wave threatens hospital capacity, we will have serious problems. I would not, from my inexpert perspective, expect a lockdown to be needed, but I can see why step 4 of the roadmap looks unwise and uncertain now, when we evaluate what we know about superspreader events etc.

@SonnetForSpring

The ignorance and callousness on mn is astounding. I am praying mn is not representative of the UK population. No better than mammals who don't have consciousness.

Covid is not the only thing that matters.