Start of third wave - what will this actually mean?

[Moonme]

With so many of the population vaccinated what do you think a third wave means? Will we need another lockdown? 😩

Covid-19: UK in early stages of third wave - scientist www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57304515

But it was not a FIXED date . Don’t people listen , they made it very clear it depended on data/ factors

I despair sometimes

Unsure exactly. People posting ‘fixed date’ need to rethink

@Unsure33

But it was not a FIXED date . Don’t people listen , they made it very clear it depended on data/ factors

I despair sometimes

I agree it wasn't FIXED but it was touted a lot.

Businesses can't turn down bookings, because they will go to competitors. So they take bookings, and now those bookings are getting cancelled.

A lof of businesses are very unhappy with the way it has been handled.

OP, im no brain box but im guessing it means the third wave is about to start.

But if you weighed the ones on the 'delay for a few weeks' and the ones who say 'fuck it crack on' you would get a clear majority view. As with all the other waves.

But from the beginning it's always been a few more weeks, when do these these few weeks end, also a lot of these experts have been against opening up at every stage since last year. You also need to listen to experts in economics as well as it's not just as simple as listening to sage.

We ate not at the start of a new wave. Stop with the hysteria.

But in India the virus has been causing deaths in younger people hasn't it? I wish you well but my DS's work colleague is in his early 30s and has been suffering from long Covid for many months and is still unable to return to work. I'm old and wish I could have passed on my vaccine to a younger person. You have far more to lose so please take care (that's not supposed to be patronising).

The whole economy vs. health dichotomy is the biggest pile of bollocks of all.

If we had locked down earlier in both previous waves, the lockdowns would have been shorter. Don't need an economics PhD to know that a shorter lockdown is better for business than a longer one.

As for when do these these few weeks end - they end when they fucking end. Just to repeat my DH's business has been really affected by lockdown - but the worst thing you can do to business just now is unlock and then lockdown again. It is really expensive opening and closing - every time you waste stock/have to reimburse/pay people to organise the opening/closing etc.

Reopening a business isn't just a case of unlocking the door.

Earlier isn’t always so good. Otherwise some people from the North wouldn’t be annoyed SE timing was followed in first wave. Plus Wales did the earlier firebreak thing in Sept it was as good as people thought it would be on here.

I’m sure people do know about businesses not just one poster.

Interesting call from Michael Kill Night Time industry CEO. They don’t want any delay as many won’t recover. They are pushing hard for June 21.

It isn't bollocks, there has to be a weighing economy is also health.

As for when do these these few weeks end - they end when they fucking end

Except that they don't fucking end do they they go on for ever as many in sage want zero covid which isnt a possibility.

@Againstmachine

It isn't bollocks, there has to be a weighing economy is also health.

As for when do these these few weeks end - they end when they fucking end

Except that they don't fucking end do they they go on for ever as many in sage want zero covid which isnt a possibility.

SAGE do not want zero covid, you have that wrong. Independent SAGE advocated for zero covid.

Of course the economy is also health and health is also the economy. That is exactly what I am saying - they are inextricably joined. It is the government who has propagated the lie that you choose one or the other.

Do you think an earlier lockdown, with fewer deaths and a shorter closure period for business, would have been worse for health or for business? Of course not.

If you come out of lockdown earlier you just bring forward the next surge.

Which is why the North and SE became disparate as timing better matched one not the other

And then tiers didn’t work

I don’t see why an earlier shorter response would then stop cases rising again after

One interesting thing out of DC rigmarole was SAGE not wanting earlier lockdown in first wave. Due to threat of winter season and spike.

If you come out of lockdown earlier you just bring forward the next surge This is completely incorrect. Surges/waves are not linked in that way.

@colouringcrayons

If you come out of lockdown earlier you just bring forward the next surge This is completely incorrect. Surges/waves are not linked in that way.

Eh? If you lower restrictions then cases start building or not?

Eh? If you lower restrictions then cases start building or not?

But the 'surge' size will be dependent on how low a base you start from, your in-country mitigations, your border controls, your variants...

The UK government chose the high death toll in wave two.

@Pliudev

But in India the virus has been causing deaths in younger people hasn't it? I wish you well but my DS's work colleague is in his early 30s and has been suffering from long Covid for many months and is still unable to return to work. I'm old and wish I could have passed on my vaccine to a younger person. You have far more to lose so please take care (that's not supposed to be patronising).

No point comparing to India, the population is so much bigger and healthcare so much poorer.

Someone in their early 30s suffering from long Covid so bad that they can't work is not common, so I'm happy to take the risk.

@colouringcrayons

Eh? If you lower restrictions then cases start building or not?

But the 'surge' size will be dependent on how low a base you start from, your in-country mitigations, your border controls, your variants...

The UK government chose the high death toll in wave two.

So not incorrect then

Once you lower restrictions you start the next stage.

You’ve broadened outside timing alone but purely on timing being early isn’t that great. Even SAGE, which you seem to see as right didn’t want early first lockdown - so no it wasn’t advised.

Another example of early lockdown not working out EE - very early first lockdown then big surge.

I don't think ongoing low cases counts as a surge - which is what I meant by putting it in inverted commas as 'surge', I think you could come out and not re-surge if you have good measures - you could certainly try.

The UK has no evidence either way on this as we have never come out at a low point and or invested in good community measures to keep it low.

Of course the economy is also health and health is also the economy. That is exactly what I am saying - they are inextricably joined. It is the government who has propagated the lie that you choose one or the other

But this also means that by fucking the economy with lockdown, the nation’s health will be worse in many respects. The effects of social distancing are expected to cause nearly a million lost years of life over the next 5 years.

Lockdowns are great for bringing down covid rates, but they are appalling for public health in other ways. I think a lot of people lose sight of this.

I prefer a delay of up to a month if it avoids a tightening of restrictions or lockdown.

Isn’t the point that case numbers are supposed to be as close to zero as possible (when you open back up) because the more cases of the virus in circulation, the greater the chances of the virus mutating again (ie to evade the immune system, thus rendering the current immunisations useless)? And then the whole entire cycle would start again - but with potentially a much more virulent (which the Indian vaccine apparently is already), more deadly version than the original?

Approx 21,000 new cases each week now.

Thats mental, most are the indian variant, more transmissible, more deadly

I have a sinking feeling we will be in some sort of restriction for years as new variants come along.

I prefer a delay of up to a month if it avoids a tightening of restrictions or lockdown.*

I'd support that but I feel in a month's time, the scientists will want to delay again, and to people who think scientists are independent they really aren't.

to people who think scientists are independent they really aren't

Who do you think they work for?

@thecatsatonthewall

Approx 21,000 new cases each week now.

Thats mental, most are the indian variant, more transmissible, more deadly

I have a sinking feeling we will be in some sort of restriction for years as new variants come along.

Yep. And the Vietnam Variant is already on it's way. Nice work Boris.