Feeling down, is the 21st unlikely?

[WaitroseAldi]

I keep reading on here and on the news that it’s unlikely to happen on the 21st. I feel so down about it. We had so many plans that will have to be cancelled. It feels like some normality then back 10 steps :(

@Bramblespoint

Can I ask op what plans you'll have to cancel?

I'm trying to see it like this, you can already meet 30 people outside. Weathers getting better so we can do this for a while. Shops, cinema, restaurants etc are all open.

If the 21st gets delayed at least we are not in lockdown which personally I don't think we'll go back to 🤞🏻

Exactly, that's how I see it too - of course I'd like it to fully reopen on the 21st, but everything's fully open and we can meet indoors and outdoors now which we couldn't before.

I think it could be some things only. So social distancing and some restrictions on large events might continue. I would wager that Mr Johnson would love to use it as an excuse to cancel Notting Hill Carnival.

@UtterlyUnimaginativeUsername

If we haven't managed to eliminate headlice, I don't see us beating covid.

Love it

It's unlikely. South London's primary schools are closing one by one

@GoldenOmber

Welcome to Mumsnet, Dorothy1940! It’s a little odd that you joined just to say that zero covid is the only option for the country and elsewhere that death is ‘still better than long covid’, but it takes all sorts, right?

As you’re new you may not realise, so just giving you a heads up that this kind of posting history might seem to others awfully like you’re shit-stirring. Just in case that’s useful to know.

You know people name-change? Doesn't mean they've just joined

@YukoandHiro

It's unlikely. South London's primary schools are closing one by one

Where are you in SL? (If you can say)

I’m SE London and cases are falling still!

You know people name-change? Doesn't mean they've just joined

Are you suggesting that this poster has been here before?

There’s going to be an announcement on 14th June. Until then we won’t know. The government say they need more data. They need to see if enough people are vaccinated by then or if deaths and hospitalisations go up with the new variant. What events have you got planned OP? Can you do them outdoors?

To be pretty blunt, it doesn't really matter so much how many people get infected. the lockdowns haven't been to prevent people catching covid, but to prevent hospitals being overwhelmed.

Anyway, we'll see. hopefully enough people have been vaccinated to prevent a surge in hospitals.

It was my birthday this weekend and my OH and I went up to London (first time on a train for 18 months) and went to the theatre to see Les Miserables. It was amazing. We also had a meal in a restaurant near Shaftesbury Avenue before the show.

Yes, we had to wear our masks throughout the performance but it seemed a small price to pay. It was lovely to regain a touch of normality

Look OP, we've never managed to eliminate Polio, TB or Measles, so I don't know why you think we can eliminate covid.

[/sarcasm]

@AMillionMilesAway

To be pretty blunt, it doesn't really matter so much how many people get infected. the lockdowns haven't been to prevent people catching covid, but to prevent hospitals being overwhelmed.

Anyway, we'll see. hopefully enough people have been vaccinated to prevent a surge in hospitals.

To be pretty blunt, you're talking shit.

If I had a penny for everyone with a huge opinion who relies entirely on the Daily Fail for their covid "facts", I'd be richer than Bill Gates.

Strange what why is that talking shit?

@MarshaBradyo

That lockdowns haven't been about keeping infections down.

The whole dialog about "not overwhelming hospitals" was when herd immunity was the national plan. Remember the charts - instead of a sharp high peak, we had a looong flat one, but the same area under each. It was intended to get covid infections up to a level the NHS could cope with as quickly as possible, and then keep it there until "herd immunity" was reached.

Once we moved away from that stupid idea, the whole plan has to been to keep infections low, because ONLY when they are ultra low, can the virus be controlled and normal life resume. Any time infections rise, you lose control of the virus and have to lock down again. Why else are we still under restrictions, given that hospitalisations have been ultralow for a long time now?

@GoldenOmber If only zero covid was the only shite Dorothy was spouting. Check the other threads, apparently a young woman was sacrificed to save us all. Her family are thrilled tonight im sure.

[quote Tana433]@GoldenOmber If only zero covid was the only shite Dorothy was spouting. Check the other threads, apparently a young woman was sacrificed to save us all. Her family are thrilled tonight im sure.[/quote]
I reported the post on the other thread and poster has been banned, probably the 'bring in the army' troll regenerated. MN should ban completely but they keep coming back under different names

My worry is that cases rise a lot after the 21st and summer is a bit tricky.
The 21st means nothing to me but I'd like to get away and stay with my family in August. They wouldn't have us in half in term as they didn't think it was safe but August might be worse.

[quote strangeshapedpotato]@MarshaBradyo

That lockdowns haven't been about keeping infections down.

The whole dialog about "not overwhelming hospitals" was when herd immunity was the national plan. Remember the charts - instead of a sharp high peak, we had a looong flat one, but the same area under each. It was intended to get covid infections up to a level the NHS could cope with as quickly as possible, and then keep it there until "herd immunity" was reached.

Once we moved away from that stupid idea, the whole plan has to been to keep infections low, because ONLY when they are ultra low, can the virus be controlled and normal life resume. Any time infections rise, you lose control of the virus and have to lock down again. Why else are we still under restrictions, given that hospitalisations have been ultralow for a long time now?[/quote]
But wasn't it stated at the last briefing that "infections alone are not a reason to lock down"?

@Thegentleman

Don't worry the Indian variant will disappear soon and barely get a mention it will disappear like a puff of smoke. Just like the Kent, Brazilain variant etc that is rarely mentioned it will be old news soon and a new one will appear, that is "believed", "possibly", "might" be more contagious, but only only monday, Wednesday and Fridays before 9.27pm. In my opinion no chance they will stick to that freedom day sadly. They are already surge testing to get more positive cases and this will be justification to delay lockdown or even reverse what we have now.

This post is astoundingly ignorant - the Kent variant has killed tens of thousands of British citizens, let alone the huge numbers aorund the globe.

I am so tired of reading covid denial nonsense.

[quote strangeshapedpotato]@MarshaBradyo

That lockdowns haven't been about keeping infections down.

The whole dialog about "not overwhelming hospitals" was when herd immunity was the national plan. Remember the charts - instead of a sharp high peak, we had a looong flat one, but the same area under each. It was intended to get covid infections up to a level the NHS could cope with as quickly as possible, and then keep it there until "herd immunity" was reached.

Once we moved away from that stupid idea, the whole plan has to been to keep infections low, because ONLY when they are ultra low, can the virus be controlled and normal life resume. Any time infections rise, you lose control of the virus and have to lock down again. Why else are we still under restrictions, given that hospitalisations have been ultralow for a long time now?[/quote]
When normal life returns how do you keep cases ultra low?

Andrew Pollard did a good piece the other day and stated cases can rise but if vaccines break the link to hospitalisation the pandemic is over.

Restrictions are still here as we are cautiously opening not to watch cases as much as we are hospitalisation. It’s why we have this lag now with cases going up - we need the data in two weeks to show hospitalisation is ok.

The NHS not being overwhelmed is still the strategy.

To get to the question in the OP, we have two risks I think:

1. We can't unlock fully on 21st due to the Indian variant
2. We shouldn't unlock fully on 21st due to the Indian variant - but our fuckwit PM repeats the same mistake he made in Mar 2020, Sept 2020, Dec 2020 and tries to ignore the science...

The second risk is bigger and sadly quite likely to happen. Boris 'let the bodies pile up' Johnson is still optimistic. How reassuring, he's got a great track record.

Restrictions are still here as we are cautiously opening not to watch cases as much as we are hospitalisation. It’s why we have this lag now with cases going up - we need the data in two weeks to show hospitalisation is ok.

Looking at the daily dashboard, looks like hospitalisations are already on the rise. Vaccine looks to be holding up well in the fully vaccinated groups, but we don’t yet have enough people fully vaccinated to prevent the hospitals getting overwhelmed. I’m not sure that people have the same thing in mind when we talk about being overwhelmed. It means that normal winter measures won’t be enough. If we’re keeping the level just below being overwhelmed, then we’ve already added some surge capacity and cancelled non-emergency procedures in order to free up bed space for patients who need admitting due to covid.

If people want healthcare to continue normally, I’m not sure doing nothing and just waiting for admissions and deaths to be high is the best policy.

I went to beach yesterday and there is definitely a different vibe out in public to when I went to the same place last summer when lockdown ended.

People seem to be more relaxed with each other and stopping to chat. The only place I saw a mask was in the shops/takeaways. Felt like a normal day before Covid and it was lovely.

The number of cases doesn’t matter, Covid can be very mild for most people, so long as deaths remain low we should be able to continue opening things up. Fingers crossed this is the case.

[quote strangeshapedpotato]@MarshaBradyo

That lockdowns haven't been about keeping infections down.

The whole dialog about "not overwhelming hospitals" was when herd immunity was the national plan. Remember the charts - instead of a sharp high peak, we had a looong flat one, but the same area under each. It was intended to get covid infections up to a level the NHS could cope with as quickly as possible, and then keep it there until "herd immunity" was reached.

Once we moved away from that stupid idea, the whole plan has to been to keep infections low, because ONLY when they are ultra low, can the virus be controlled and normal life resume. Any time infections rise, you lose control of the virus and have to lock down again. Why else are we still under restrictions, given that hospitalisations have been ultralow for a long time now?[/quote]
Of course they have been.
It doesn't matter how many people get infected. It matters how many get ill enough to need treatment.

@picturesandpickles

To get to the question in the OP, we have two risks I think: 1) We can't unlock fully on 21st due to the Indian variant 2) We shouldn't unlock fully on 21st due to the Indian variant - but our fuckwit PM repeats the same mistake he made in Mar 2020, Sept 2020, Dec 2020 and tries to ignore the science...

The second risk is bigger and sadly quite likely to happen. Boris 'let the bodies pile up' Johnson is still optimistic. How reassuring, he's got a great track record.

A further option...

3. Infections are mainly present and mild amongst people in the younger age range at low risk of hospitalisation, and are managed amongst the older age ranges by the vaccine. Infections are also being picked up by targeted surge testing rather than mainly through people being obviously ill. Test events are showing lower than expected risks of superspreading and therefore there is not a significant added risk in further relaxing measures when higher risk behaviour such as education/ work/ socialising in closer groups is already enabled. June 21st goes ahead and continued vaccination reduces the pool of people able to spread the virus as the summer goes on.