Data, Stat, Daily Numbers started 26th May 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Here are all the walk-in vaccine sites open and vaccine buses in London this month

www.cityam.com/fancy-a-covid-jab-here-are-all-the-walk-in-vaccine-sites-open-in-london-this-month/

Off hand, does anyone know the proportion of false positives with lateral flow tests?

Off hand, does anyone know the proportion of false positives with lateral flow tests?

Based on the latest Test and Trace data - 0.03%:

www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n706

A 2020 analysis by Public Heath England and the University of Oxford, led by Peto, estimated the specificity of the Innova LFT at 99.68%.9 A more recent analysis, published in March and using data from the test in active use by NHS Test and Trace, estimated a specificity of 99.97%.

@wintertravel1980

Off hand, does anyone know the proportion of false positives with lateral flow tests?

Based on the latest Test and Trace data - 0.03%:

www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n706

A 2020 analysis by Public Heath England and the University of Oxford, led by Peto, estimated the specificity of the Innova LFT at 99.68%.9 A more recent analysis, published in March and using data from the test in active use by NHS Test and Trace, estimated a specificity of 99.97%.

So (have I calculated this right!) 300 in every million tests?

So (have I calculated this right!) 300 in every million tests?

Yes, sounds right.

Off hand, does anyone know the proportion of false positives with lateral flow tests?

In march and april of the reported LFD positive tests, about a 1/3rd were confirmed, 1/3rd were false and 1/3rd no-one did, however there's a lot of reason to believe people did not report all the tests, the dashboard showed a rate higher than 300 per million, but not orders of magnitude different.

With prevalence now higher, the proportion goes down obviously, unfortunately though the covid dashboard data does not publish any way for people to identify it.

Thanks. Child sent home from school because another person had a positive LFT. Just waiting for PCR confirmation and wondering on the chances that child will have to isolate.

@EducatingArti

Thanks. Child sent home from school because another person had a positive LFT. Just waiting for PCR confirmation and wondering on the chances that child will have to isolate.

Oh no. Quite high I would have thought that the lft will turn out to be positive. However the school might not have yet decided who is/is not a close contact of said child.

@Frazzled2207
I'm thinking that too but I do know of another incident last week where the LFT was a false positive. I actually didn't think children had to isolate until the LFT was confirmed by a PCR but maybe it is different at the moment because we are in a surge area.

I too am isolating due to school contact, [child],
Awaiting the result of their pcr so we know whether can go back or not...
Within 2 days I heard for pcr results?
Maybe back in work tomorrow, or, not....

[quote EducatingArti]@Frazzled2207
I'm thinking that too but I do know of another incident last week where the LFT was a false positive. I actually didn't think children had to isolate until the LFT was confirmed by a PCR but maybe it is different at the moment because we are in a surge area.[/quote]
I think they always have to isolate after contact with someone with a positive LFT. They can stop isolating only if the person then has a PCR come back negative. But the odds are it'll be positive too if you're in a surge testing area.

@DinkyDaisy

I too am isolating due to school contact, [child], Awaiting the result of their pcr so we know whether can go back or not... Within 2 days I heard for pcr results? Maybe back in work tomorrow, or, not....

I don't think you need to isolate just because your child is a contact. (Though appreciate you might need to be off work to look after your child!)

Sorry. It is me who had contact with a child at school who had positive lft. Loads of kids and adults waiting to see if pcr positive or negative!
My children still at school- for the moment.
We are not in a surge testing area.

Frustrating. I am negative at the moment and double jabbed...

Another very interesting thread from James Ward on the rapid growth we have been seeing recently (spoiler: the problem is not schools).

I have also attached the latest graph from one of the PHE registrars (@dnepo on twitter) to illustrate how quickly infections are now spreading in the 20-29s group.

twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1402904768113254402

Not sure how a single data point graph illustrates a trend. But that's PHE in a nutshell.

Multiple data points confirm the growth; although note also the lower overall 15-19 population as compared with 20-24s, and 20-29s. Which makes a focus on just absolute numbers a bit misleading.

The constraint of a 5 day reporting lag for the age data is something of a limitation given the upward case trajectory.

Thankfully James Ward is rather more switched on.

Thanks, boys3, your analysis is much more convincing!

@wintertravel1980

Off hand, does anyone know the proportion of false positives with lateral flow tests?

Based on the latest Test and Trace data - 0.03%:

www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n706

A 2020 analysis by Public Heath England and the University of Oxford, led by Peto, estimated the specificity of the Innova LFT at 99.68%.9 A more recent analysis, published in March and using data from the test in active use by NHS Test and Trace, estimated a specificity of 99.97%.

^^ This is interesting. DS (teenager) did a routine lateral flow late last week and it had a faint positive line. Did a follow up PCR which was negative, so we were told we didn't have to isolate any more. He then did his next lateral flow at the beginning of this week and - surprise - it had a faint positive line again. He has done another PCR and we are waiting on the results, however he also has a mild cough now too.

Just heard the PCR is positive. So no seeing my nephews at the weekend then. 😭

@boys3

Thankfully James Ward is rather more switched on.

Yes I like James Wards analysis too.

Sizeable outbreak at my school of linked cases today...sigh.

@Piggywaspushed

Sizeable outbreak at my school of linked cases today...sigh.

It is really quite frustrating that although schools outbreaks are collated (in quite some detail) behind the scenes Eg by public health teams etc, as far as the public goes including school teaching and support staff little real broader info is made available.

Just to be clear schools, beyond their own very immediate school info, have a similar mushroom like existence.

A little knowledge is clearly a dangerous thing

There is usually info in the weekly report, here: www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports.

The age rate charts show that infections in older children have been higher than other age groups for many weeks, but in the last week they didn't go up so much, whilst infections rose faster in the 20 somethings. This suggests two things 1) 20 somethings have been socialising more in the last couple of weeks. 2) Schools are a key driver of cases among children and when they shut for half term we can see the impact.