Data, Stat, Daily Numbers started 26th May 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

This is great news and I would be interested to know (but I don’t know if it is part of the ONS study-react?) what percentage of those with antibodies have it from:
Infection (from original and b1.117)
Infection plus one or two doses
One dose (broken down to AZ vs Pfizer or Moderna)
Two doses (also broken down by vaccine type)

I wonder, does anyone know what levels of immunity against symptomatic infection and hospitalisation are currently conferred against the delta variant from previous infection?

Is it similar to one dose (~33%)?

Sorry, what is great news is the antibody levels posted by TruelyStruttingHotpants

@MRex

That's very positive, though we need to be wary that this survey detects some antibodies, not necessarily enough to prevent infection. With the additional jabs taking effect and assuming a high proportion of people getting second jabs to increase their antibody levels, that does indicate a chance of being potentially just weeks away from practical herd immunity.

Apart from the 13 million UK people who are not adults of course....

Apart from the 13 million UK people who are not adults of course....

Zoe's data seems to suggest that adults are still the most significant drivers of the transmission. With most of the economy closed, people had limited opportunities to socialise but as soon as some of the restrictions were removed we went back to the status quo - cases in young adults quickly exceeded cases in children.

Risks to children will be significantly reduced when we vaccinate the adult population.

@Firefliess - ONS seroprevalence is 16+. If you look back at the ages for infection, teenagers had high infections from Alpha variant and we can expect some will get vaccinated; secondary age infections largely rise a week or two after 20-29yo cases rise, so their risk reduces even if it doesn't disappear. Primary are being more affected by Delta, but vaccinating their parents will help and thankfully it is still not causing a lot of illness in this age group. Under 5s also don't seem to be driving waves of infection nor being badly affected; mostly household infections still. If we're to believe some, secondary age kids have all had covid at least 4 times each by now; they really can't be driving all infections AND have no antibodies, that doesn't work.

Do you know, I don’t think this is said often enough and it is such an important point that wintertravel1980 has made.

Risks to children will be significantly reduced when we vaccinate the adult population.

@everythingthelighttouches

This is great news and I would be interested to know (but I don’t know if it is part of the ONS study-react?) what percentage of those with antibodies have it from: Infection (from original and b1.117) Infection plus one or two doses One dose (broken down to AZ vs Pfizer or Moderna) Two doses (also broken down by vaccine type)

I wonder, does anyone know what levels of immunity against symptomatic infection and hospitalisation are currently conferred against the delta variant from previous infection?

Is it similar to one dose (~33%)?

Off the top of my head. So could be remembering wrong. For the delta variant:

One dose AZ or Pfizer (so Moderna is expected to be the same) around 33% to stop infections

One dose of the vaccines 70% to stop hospitalisation

Both doses of either vaccine between 85% to 95% to stop infections. More data is needed to be confident of a figure.

We don't have enough data to break down numbers for each vaccine regarding hospitalisation in any meaningful way. The numbers are just to low. The irony As hospitalisations increase we should be able to do this.

@everythingthelighttouches

Do you know, I don’t think this is said often enough and it is such an important point that wintertravel1980 has made.

Risks to children will be significantly reduced when we vaccinate the adult population.

I wonder, does anyone know what levels of immunity against symptomatic infection and hospitalisation are currently conferred against the delta variant from previous infection? This is a very interesting question, as we talk a lot about how London has high levels of immunity due to high cases previously, but do we know who different strains work in terms of natural immunity - this was the assumption made in Brazil wasn't it?

That's a good question about what level of protection prior infection gives for the Delta strain. Logically if vaccines give slightly less, you'd expect prior infection too to give slightly less. I've not heard anything on this though, which might be a good sign (no indication that there's any loss of protection), or might just mean we're more focused on protection from vaccination now, as that's more measurable and covering more of the population.

Re kids being spreaders and yet not all had it - a "high rate" of Covid is about 1% of people catching it in a week. Rates of 1.2% of Bolton secondary aged kids were hitting the headlines a few weeks ago and causing huge disruption to education, as well as being part of an unsustainable level of transmission in terms of wider social/hospital impact. They've since fallen, but even if infections stayed at that rate it would take most of a year for all of them to catch it. I have seen antibody data from children and it was around 20-30%. My point is that we shouldn't be seeing the 80% of adults figure as meaning we're near to herd immunity when children are people too. (And I'm not all that sure even about the under 5s being non-spreaders - I've known people catch it from toddlers. I suspect they're just not tested as much/as accurately)

@TruelyStruttingHotpants I think you have it the wrong way about. After 2 doses the % quoted is to stop any sort of symptom and so the % of stopping hospital admissions is even higher

On quality of immunity:

I believe (and someone with a better background in immunology than me will have to correct me) that natural immunity gives rise to more affinity maturation and better range of polyclonal antibodies than vaccine-induced immunity? (In general, don’t know if these vaccines were or even can be optimised for this effect). This means naturally-derived immunity is a bit more “flexible” to having at least some effect on new variants.

On quantity:
I do remember reading (perhaps from a previous report or paper from the ONS study) that those who were severely ill and in ICU had astronomically high levels of IgG compared to people who were ill at home.

Disclaimer: yes I know the antibodies and the B cells are only one component of immunity, but they’re the best we’ve got.

I hadn’t realised that antibodies from past infection and those from vaccination were different things and tests were able to differentiate between the two until Zoe invited me to get an antibody test yesterday and explained this! (But then I‘m no scientist)

I have had Covid and 2 vaccines. I had an antibody test, the one from Imperial College that they post to you, it shows I have IgG antibodies but do not know the level of if they are from infection or vaccine. Or if they would protect me against the Delta variant, I assume not.

@Failpants

I have had Covid and 2 vaccines. I had an antibody test, the one from Imperial College that they post to you, it shows I have IgG antibodies but do not know the level of if they are from infection or vaccine. Or if they would protect me against the Delta variant, I assume not.

Why would you assume not?

@ThereIsAGreenHillFarAway

As we are constantly told there is some vaccine escape and looking at what happened in Brazil. They thought that they had achieved herd immunity and then a variant and came and overwhelmed them.

[quote Failpants]@ThereIsAGreenHillFarAway

As we are constantly told there is some vaccine escape and looking at what happened in Brazil. They thought that they had achieved herd immunity and then a variant and came and overwhelmed them.[/quote]
Sorry, i'm still confused. No protection at all?

So you think having had Covid, being double vaccinated and having IgG antibodies yourself counts for nothing against the Delta variant? You're just as likely to have the same outcome if you catch the Delta variant as an unvaccinated person who hasn't had Covid and has no IgG antibodies?

As for Brazil - wasn't it their President who said Covid didn't exist and actively discouraged any preventative measures?

[quote Failpants]@ThereIsAGreenHillFarAway

As we are constantly told there is some vaccine escape and looking at what happened in Brazil. They thought that they had achieved herd immunity and then a variant and came and overwhelmed them.[/quote]

1. that Brazil study is widely thought to have drastically overstated the level of infections in Manaus, which is why there was another wave
2. two vaccine doses works against P1 too, the population of Brazil weren't vaccinated
3. Yes, Bolsonaro is a dangerous dickhead who sadly only got a mild case of covid himself, I preferred how the virus dealt with Magafuli (Tanzania president, said herbs would fix it, refused to allow covid testing, died of covid)

Surge testing continues to expand; Kingston upon Thames now too: mailchi.mp/27429f00e2eb/your-kingston-kingston-councils-borough-newsletter-2168206?e=4b6d91c8e8. Kids sent back from at least one school with a PCR test for everyone in the family that "MUST" be returned the next day.

I'm concerned that the increased use of PCRs for all school children in contact with the Delta variant may inflate the 'attack rate' when this was not in place for any previous variants.

We didn't get any if this stuff in Bedford. Just a PCR for close contacts and the school that closed. It does look like there is mounting concern about schools. This is more than at any other point.

@Piggywaspushed

We didn't get any if this stuff in Bedford. Just a PCR for close contacts and the school that closed. It does look like there is mounting concern about schools. This is more than at any other point.

It's taken them a while to take schools and their staff and children seriously, hasn't it!

I suspect it is because the under 25s now are the last set to not be vaccinated and it is presumably the easiest way to get it out to people

Ok, at least 2 schools... Yes, it will make some difference to secondary attack rate.

Re: vaccine immunity vs natural immunity. The very simplified explanation I heard about why vaccine immunity is desirable is that with a natural infection it’s hard (impossible?) to pinpoint at what point your immune system has learnt to recognise and fight the virus. With vaccines they use the spike protein (the first point of contact with your immune system) to train your immune system and therefore vaccine immunity is designed to recognise the virus at the earliest opportunity. The spikes are also where the mutations we’re concerned about have happened because that’s what’s disguising the variants from vaccine acquired immunity.

I hope that’s right (and someone corrects me if not!) because I found that the easiest explanation to get my head around.

@ILookAtTheFloor

I'm concerned that the increased use of PCRs for all school children in contact with the Delta variant may inflate the 'attack rate' when this was not in place for any previous variants.

Can I ask why that concerns you? I agree it will make a like for like comparison harder but I can’t see it as anything but a good thing (and what should have happened previously).