Data, Stat, Daily Numbers started 26th May 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Looks like we're on our way up the curve (focus on the teal and orange, as they're the two most realistic scenarios right now).

The government has had that chart (or a version) for a month and knows what is coming down the track.

@NannyAndJohn

Very worrying.

And nationwide a big jump up to 860 currently in hospital.

A one off blip or the beginning of a trend? (Hint: it's the latter)

Not really worrying. It was always predicted to happen when we opened up. The new variant just makes it a little steeper 🤷‍♀️

Have you not been paying attention over the last few months 🤦‍♀️

Ok, so in my book "a playbook" actually is a set of playbooks. Core manual for everyone to follow and then the variations as separate playbook extensions. Like boardgames or RPGs :)
I have not spent hours/days thinking this through, so it might even be a stupid idea, but at least one for consideration.

I can only hope that eg NATO is more prepared and have multiple scenarios planned :)

'a little steeper' - today's figures are about double last Tuesday's.

Prior to Delta variant we were not looking at that trajectory at all on reopening. This was absolutely NOT predicted prior to Delta variant take off, when we discussed rising cases after reopening we were talking about the Alpha variant.

There are too many people channelling Teresa May's 'nothing has changed' mentality.

@PracticingPerson

The falling numbers in hospital with Alpha variant nationally are masking the rising hospital cases from the Delta variant in the hotspots.

To an extent yes. However we should be seeing similar to this graph everywhere affected. Therefore numbers in hospital, time spent in hospital and deaths should all be less than previous waves. It is a big wait and see still but looking about right so far.

@PracticingPerson

'a little steeper' - today's figures are about double last Tuesday's.

Prior to Delta variant we were not looking at that trajectory at all on reopening. This was absolutely NOT predicted prior to Delta variant take off, when we discussed rising cases after reopening we were talking about the Alpha variant.

There are too many people channelling Teresa May's 'nothing has changed' mentality.

It is a little steeper than the expected up tick in cases once we started to open up. Cases were always expected to go up. That was said by Whitty and co ages ago. It is said to be part of the acceptable risk. The whole living with the virus narrative. We did know this could happen and was likely to happen. The new variant just makes it more accelerated. Therefore the number of people vaccinated are not quite were we would like. Hence the we may have to wait a couple of weeks for full opening argument 🤷‍♀️

Well time will tell but you are put a very minimising slant on the data today IMO. We were absolutely not expecting cases to double in a week.

Ah shit. When JBM, a very non political, data only commentator posts this (his chart in ft pink), I know it’s really kicking off.

“ NEW: latest data now show a clear rise in hospital admissions in the UK, and numbers could climb rapidly.

Admissions & patient numbers in the North West are ~straight lines on a log-scale: exponential growth”

And Oliver Johnson has just posted this (his chart on white background)

“ This is an important graph, and it's worth thinking about what it means. It's not that cases are going up, it's not even that they are rising exponentially, it's that the exponential rate of growth is itself growing apparently without constraint. This is not what we'd like to see”

Thank you for posting the graphs, I read that from JBM on twitter, and the noises from the chancellor about four weeks suggest that there is real concern.

If it growing like that now, imagine with no distancing or restrictions at all.

Apologies for being dense but I have no idea what this bit means??

It's not that cases are going up, it's not even that they are rising exponentially, it's that the exponential rate of growth is itself growing apparently without constraint.

It means instead of growing by the same percentage each day, which is bad enough, the percentage increase is itself growing.

The line in India on the charts was bloody vertical.

I like his Twitter account. You get some cracking graphs. Love a good graph. Trouble is data can be made to look different depending on how you present it.

Cases are rocketing up but as amongst the young that is rather expected. Nothing to stop the new variant ripping through them.

Hospital data and deaths are starting at such a low point. It is rather interesting how people are portraying any increase. I mean my local trust has a 100% increase. In real terms that means we have gone from 1 admission away to 2 a day. No doubt being in London that will get worse but frankly it is ridiculous reporting it as 100% increase at the moment.

• a day not away

This is John's conclusion from that thread:

• Third wave of hospital admissions clearly underway

• Further reopening on June 21 would accelerate already exponential growth

(He also added later that delaying to long would cause further issues as highlighted my other commentators. The general thought is a 2 to 4 week delay at most from what I am hearing. Else we risk pushing any problem towards Autumn)

• Data still suggest this wave should be less lethal

• Vaccines work very well, including against Delta. They remain our way out

I don't see anything in his thread that is cause for drama lamba. However I am a realistic old hippie at heart. So don't freak out unless the shot really does hit the fan

Data still suggest this wave should be less lethal it is frustrating though that we didn't need to have a wave of this scale, had borders been properly attended to. Yes we were always going to see a rise, but it appears we are going to be sold shorter hospitalisations of younger people as a 'good' outcome?

I think the problem with the border argument though is that it actually doesn’t take many, indeed it can take as little as one particularly with this strain as shown in Australia

Our weakness has always been track and trace made far harder than in Australia for example due to population density but it is far more why we are here now than the borders

TruelyStruttingHotpants

The graph you have posted (also from JBM) is on a log scale!!! It absolutely isn’t a case of new cases and now hospital admission “just a little steeper”

You said

“ Therefore numbers in hospital, time spent in hospital and deaths should all be less than previous waves”

Yes to the last two but the numbers in hospital will continue to rise exponentially until we remove the pool of susceptible hosts (by vaccinating them). There are still millions of them.

Even if the number of people landing in hospital is much smaller due to them being younger, fitter and healthier, if that number is doubling every 8 or 9 days or so , we’re could be in trouble.

An important question is will this be reflected country-wide?

@Lalalablahblahblah

"it appears we are going to be sold shorter hospitalisations of younger people as a 'good' outcome?" I agree and I think this is awful. Just because "the vulnerable" are no longer dying doesn't mean everything is OK. We just have a new set of less but still vulnerable- the young. It's not ok to just accept that high numbers of them are likely to get very ill just because they mostly won't die.

And if this gets looked at in terms of health economics - young people in ICU is not a good outcome. No one is discussing it openly (for obvious reasons) but young people in ICU then discharge is an ongoing cost whereas old people dying is not.

I don't think any bad outcomes 'don't matter' btw, whether you are 20 or 90, but the costs of allowing large numbers of younger people to be hospitalised would be huge!

From the BBC website:

About 8 in 10 adults in the UK had antibodies to coronavirus by 17 May, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics.

The figures are 83% for adults in Wales, 80% in England and Northern Ireland and a slightly lower 73% for Scotland.

They're up from 77% for Wales, 76% for England, 75% for Northern Ireland and 69% for Scotland - the week before.

Antibodies are evidence of vaccination or past infection

Unfortunately, experiences from North West and Scotland seem to show that cases and hospitalisations will go up countrywide. The big question is if and when they will hit the ceiling.

From the twitter account of Shaun Lintern:

In Bolton, numbers were up 1 on yday to 39 today. 7 discharges and 5 new admissions in past 24 hours - so its continuing to hold the line. As is Blackburn hospital and Greater Manchester which saw numbers fall by 2 in last 24 hours, thanks to 29 discharges vs 19 admissions.

Blackburn is important because it has got lower vaccination rates than Bolton. If hospital cases in Blackburn also plateau (like they might have done in Bolton), it will be a very positive sign.

Of course, the rest of the country will, unfortunately, keep rising (and yes, we will see exponential growth for a period of time ) but the picture might be quite different from the first two waves.

That's very positive, though we need to be wary that this survey detects some antibodies, not necessarily enough to prevent infection. With the additional jabs taking effect and assuming a high proportion of people getting second jabs to increase their antibody levels, that does indicate a chance of being potentially just weeks away from practical herd immunity.

And here is another interesting data point - the estimate of new daily cases from Zoe. Zoe has been very effective at spotting early trends (both positive and negative) throughout the pandemic.

Our current wave seems to be driven by unvaccinated 20-29 year olds (I know many people are very focused on schools but the latest Zoe's numbers show something very different). Extending vaccinations to 25-29 year olds should make a big difference (although it is a race against time).