Data, Stat, Daily Numbers started 26th May 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

There’s a varicella vaccine for chickenpox which is part of the usual childhood immunisation schedule in Australia and parts of the USA. We give it to very vulnerable kids in the U.K. Plus staff who work with vulnerable kids. It should be part of our schedule.

That was in reply to @sirfredfredgeorge

I know lots of people who have paid for it. Obviously it's not idea if only the middle classes can buy into a vaccination programme but it does exist.

ideal....

@NotDonna

There’s a varicella vaccine for chickenpox which is part of the usual childhood immunisation schedule in Australia and parts of the USA. We give it to very vulnerable kids in the U.K. Plus staff who work with vulnerable kids. It should be part of our schedule.

The NHS says they have concerns about shingles, and it might require more shingles vaccinations too.

Apart from that our nurse said it was under review but there were some generalised concerns that the backlash would affect MMR further, and of course measles in particular is much more dangerous.

I get more irritated that I can't easily get BCG for DS, it's got very low availability privately and having been unable to attend once we finally made it up the list (due to antibiotics), lockdown hit. Yet babies in our area get it on the NHS due to risk.

@JanFebAnyMonth

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/02/expert-expresses-fears-over-covid-outbreaks-at-bristol-schools?fbclid=IwAR1ZGxXD7ULXzLjmzK1-R4-_9TtZCwdjRWXPQo5JNip2GzAuSvtv-YLayok

• outbreaks at many schools in Bristol may signal rising, undetected, community spread.

Strange Bristol post is not reporting it , and it’s the most sensationalist newspaper ever

Looks like Bedford might have turned the corner. The numbers have been going down over past few days.

What I find interesting about this "wave" is that cases in hotspots tend to move in both directions. While many boroughs are on the rise, Bolton and Bedford seem to be improving. Back in autumn cases in Swale, Thanet and East London only went one way - onwards and upwards.

[quote alreadytaken]@JanFebAnyMonth Just take a look at the figures on cases by age. Supplement that by looking at ONS estimates of infection rates by age group. No it's far from a theory. It's probably about half of the 16-20 and 20-25 year age groups.[/quote]
Whilst given in more normal times exam season would be in full swing we'll have to mark down @alreadytaken for failure to fully show workings.

However, dependent on your view on the proportion of actual cases that get confirmed via a test and reported in the numbers, I can see the logic in the hypothesis being put forward.

I'm not sure I'd necessarily go full Carlsberg on this; particularly for the 15-19 group; however it's quite possibly not too far removed at all.

Based on the ONS population estimates the 20-24s make up 6.2% of the population in England. They account however for 9% of reported cases. Only the aged 90 and over band has a greater imbalance. 10% of the 20-24 population in England have had a reported case. and a lot more an unreported one. Somewhere upward of 40% having actually had is, I'd suggest, more than realistic.

The argument is not quite as strong for the 15-19s (in terms of suggesting half may have had C19).

@wintertravel1980

Looks like Bedford might have turned the corner. The numbers have been going down over past few days.

What I find interesting about this "wave" is that cases in hotspots tend to move in both directions. While many boroughs are on the rise, Bolton and Bedford seem to be improving. Back in autumn cases in Swale, Thanet and East London only went one way - onwards and upwards.

That's an interesting observation.Vaccination blitzing a success? Better public health efforts to tackle it this time? Maybe having identified the new variant a bit quicker this time we're doing the right things to stop it instead of just being confused about why North Kent should be different from everywhere else. Also, last time it did spread quite quickly into East London, so was quite quickly in a very large area. Maybe the places affected this time are a bit more self contained and so it's possible to focus more resources on them? But the fact that more than half the population is vaccinated does mean cases aren't rising quite so quickly so there's a bit more time to respond.

@wintertravel1980

Looks like Bedford might have turned the corner. The numbers have been going down over past few days.

What I find interesting about this "wave" is that cases in hotspots tend to move in both directions. While many boroughs are on the rise, Bolton and Bedford seem to be improving. Back in autumn cases in Swale, Thanet and East London only went one way - onwards and upwards.

was just reading a thread on Twitter suggesting that perhaps due to vaccinations the rise in cases should plateau in other places as they have done in Bolton. Things should steady themselves out by the end of June. I really hope that’s true.

This thread seems to be gloomier than the data justifies lately.

Not wholly in agreement with that assessment.

So to be positive Councils that have shown a fall in cases as compared with the prior 7 day period. Falls in terms of absolute change in the rate per 100,000 as opposed to percentage change.

Bedford and Bolton lead the way. A few places further down Erewash which had a big school outbreak a few weeks back and rose to c200 cases per 100,000; now in single figures.

and some more

and another helping

and another

and to recognise Ryedale; which as zero per 100,000 in the prior week could not fall further; those unchanged or with a rise of less than 1 case per 100,000

My point about vaccination for chickenpox is not about if it's right or wrong to vaccinate, but the NICE people have published their evidence, demonstrated the trade-offs in terms of cost, QALY's, risk and chosen a particularly policy (vaccinating at risk only) I can't really comment either way, but I will likely be vaccinating my DD shortly (well likely after an antibody test as she may simply have had a case without noticing) but that's only now at her relatively older age.

But it's about lots of evidence and decision making on a disease that is it seems a higher risk in children than covid, so I'm not convinced that the opposite conclusion would be drawn. ie it's not self evident that vaccinating kids at the moment is so obvious it should be done - unlike vaccinating 80 year olds, I can buy that is so self evident I didn't mind that the data wasn't published.

I still think we need QALYs for other measures - I'm not convinced on the whole range of lockdown measures (shielding isolation, the closure of parks, limited outdoor exercise etc. being the ones that I really suspect harmed more than the helped) but it's more understandable that lack of knowledge and rushing was done for those, but there's plenty of time to produce the evidence for the kids.

@wintertravel I think there are outbreaks not waves, I think the restrictions, including seasonality and attention are along with the vaccination and existing immunity enough to stop outbreaks becoming waves, and all these outbreaks were simply seeded.

So I'm really quite positive with the figures.

in the spirit of positivity the rolling 7 day average of deaths (England) by date of death comparing the period 1st Aug 2020 to 30th September 2020; and 1st May 2021 to date. The x axis therefore is a simple count of days - point 31 is therefore 31st August and 31st May.

With the lag in reporting deaths the most recent current week is likely not yet complete; however as can be seen the 7 day average that we are seeing now was already falling below the position in August last year.

Blackburn, Bolton, Bradford and now Bristol...
I've got it! Covid is worse if you live in a place beginning with B it's as believable as many of the theories I've seen

Now back to the data... 🤣

Does anyone know what's going on in Chessington (Kingston upon Thames) and Leggats (Watford)? Both AFAIK in leafy London suburbs and surrounded by green light green, and both had over 1000% rises in cases (1700 and 1500 respectively). Unlike north Kent in the autumn they're quite far apart from each other.

Margaret, you missed Bedford!

Piggy I knew there was another!

There's certainly a bit of a "B" thing going on!

which begs the question why the B1.617.2 has been designated Delta rather than Beta. :)

@amicissimma

Does anyone know what's going on in Chessington (Kingston upon Thames) and Leggats (Watford)? Both AFAIK in leafy London suburbs and surrounded by green light green, and both had over 1000% rises in cases (1700 and 1500 respectively). Unlike north Kent in the autumn they're quite far apart from each other.

India variant in Kingston upon Thames, it was 1/6 of cases 3 weeks ago in Wellcome Sanger and now possibly most cases. Much of it looks like a little flare-up brought in by 20-25 cases and spreading both up and down in age. 10-14 strongest this week for the first time. Thankfully it's half term so hopefully a chance if it dying off, there have been increases and decreases in cases across different MSOA. Chessington particularly, Norbiton to a lesser extent, are the MSOA that have always flared into more cases and taken longer to get rid of it. They are the more deprived areas of the borough.