Data, Stat, Daily Numbers started 26th May 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@JanFebAnyMonth

From BBC Live Updates this afternoon:

Blackburn health chief calls for under 18s to be vaccinated

Covid vaccines for 12-to-18-year-olds are "desperately needed" to fight case numbers, the public health director for Blackburn with Darwen says.

Prof Dominic Harrison wants the Pfizer-BioNTech jab approved for the age group, warning that rates are "exceptionally high" in the area's 17 and 18 year olds.

He says there is a "very big shift" from the previous waves of the virus, with 13 out of the 21 people currently being treated in local hospitals aged below 55.

The latest government figures show that Blackburn with Darwen has the highest rate of cases in the country, with 416.2 cases per 100,000 residents in the week leading up to 31 May, an increase of 135 on the figure from seven days before.

I was looking at the heat map for Blackburn earlier.

Interestingly the age profile does look younger than the previous waves. In November the 10-14s were into purple, but not younger, in the January wave the youngest purple area was 15-19. This wave the 4-9s are purple.
I was wondering if we'll find the Indian variant effects even younger than the Kent one.

Bolton is similar, but not Bradford, so maybe I'm reading things into it that aren't there.

Of course there are other things that can play into that. I suspect if you've a primary school child who has a mild cough and a runny nose you'd be more likely to get a test "just in case" if you knew they'd been in contact with a positive case, so get one case in a school may mean people are more likely to be tested. Ditto if it's in your family.

I think the "6 year old in the UK" Vs 60 year old diabetic in India is a bit of a false dichotomy. People forget what an elderly (and therefore vulnerable) population we have in the UK. Only 6% of India's population is over 65, and they've vaccinated 12%. So if they've not yet done their 60 year old diabetes then something's going wrong with vaccine distribution within India, which not vaccinating UK children isn't going to solve. In the UK 20% of our population are over 65. The vaccines aren't 100% effective so if we want to protect our elderly population (and the high numbers vulnerable due to obesity or diabetes) then we need to stop the spread. Otherwise UK children are very likely to infect elderly and vulnerable people in their community. We can't stop spread that unless we vaccinate sufficient people to achieve herd immunity in every common setting in which people mix - not just some mathematically calculated population percentage that takes no account of age specific mixing. So unless we close schools indefinitely, we need to vaccinate those who go to them.

There's also an educational reason to vaccinate children - as the alternative is at least a year when the average child is made to isolate repeatedly whenever they're a contact. Even with Bolton's high rates recently, only about 1% of their secondary aged children were catching it each week - there's a long way to go until they all get it over with.

So unless we close schools indefinitely, we need to vaccinate those who go to them.

This, which should have been staring everyone in the face since November.

Wolverhampton ask any member of staff or pupil at their schools to get a PCR test if they have any kind of symptoms - to combat the delta (Indian) variant:

www.wolverhampton.gov.uk/news/new-guidance-schools-combat-spread-new-variants

which should have been staring everyone in the face since November

There are numerous infectious diseases where this policy isn't followed, so no I don't think it's obvious. chicken pox is more deadly to children and there's no isolation for it, no vaccination for it. We need actual NICE evidence on the cost and benefits of vaccination like we have for any other disease or medical intervention, rather than zero covid through stealth we have now.

Some pretty good news - our weekly vaccine supply has gone up by nearly 30% - most likely due to extra Pfizer deliveries.

Scotland has published its weekly numbers of the allocated doses and their share has gone up from 5,956,040 last week to 6,371,720 this week (an increase of 415,680):

www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

Over past few weeks the weekly Scotland allocation was always 316,000.

The UK wide equivalent of this week's delivery is 5 million doses. We know that 2.6 million is domestic supply of AZ. The incremental 2.4 million must be mRNA. We were expecting 1.1 million (950k Pfizer, 150k Moderna) so extra 1.3 is a very pleasant surprise.

Some thoughts on vaccine supply from twitter:

twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1397130025342803969

Second, Pfizer's production success led to announcements that EU deliveries would accelerate from original schedule. Might the UK get some similar uplift (+30%ish)?

No-one's said anything, and no-one's counting on it.
But if it happened, it would be big enough to notice.

The huge jump in the vaccine supply this week is certainly big enough to notice. Our uplift is higher than 30% though.

@borntobequiet

So unless we close schools indefinitely, we need to vaccinate those who go to them.

This, which should have been staring everyone in the face since November.

Yup.

There is a vaccine for chickenpox , available to those who pay.

I worry that the government has spent so long lying telling us that it doesn't matter if cases are rife in schools, that whenever they finally get around to thinking about limiting transmission/variants through vaccinating school age people, it will be hard to convince people it is necessary.

Absolutely @colouringcrayons

4330 cases.
12 deaths.

So unless we close schools indefinitely, we need to vaccinate those who go to them.

Really? So close all Primary Schools until and unless a vaccine is approved for the under 12s. And close Secondary Schools up to GCSE level until approval given for 12-16 year olds to be vaccinated?

@ThereIsAGreenHillFarAway

So unless we close schools indefinitely, we need to vaccinate those who go to them.

Really? So close all Primary Schools until and unless a vaccine is approved for the under 12s. And close Secondary Schools up to GCSE level until approval given for 12-16 year olds to be vaccinated?

I didn't mean we should close them all now. I meant we'll need to deal with repeated closures and school-led outbreaks indefinitely unless we can do something to prevent infections within them.

Vaccinating children isn’t mainly about protecting them from infection though, is it?

@pussycatlickinglollyices

4330 cases. 12 deaths.

Straight back to reality after yesterday.

The did an over 18 vaccine walk in centre today in Manchester. Anyone with a Manchester postcode could attend. So they are obviously trying to hit those younger people.

Deaths after a bank holiday are lower than expected. On the Wednesday after the last one on the 5th May deaths were 27. So this is a big improvement.

Of the adult population 49% are not fully vaccinated and 75% have had a single dose. Some of the younger people who have had a single dose are topping up antibodies from previous infection. The NHS is still pumping vaccines into arms as fast as they can get the supply and people to take it. Many of those who havent had a vaccine yet will already have had covid.

Deaths are at a low level, hospital admissions are not going through the roof with only the North West showing any reason for concern.

This thread seems to be gloomier than the data justifies lately.

Many of those who havent had a vaccine yet will already have had covid.

Presumably that’s just your theory?

@JanFebAnyMonth Just take a look at the figures on cases by age. Supplement that by looking at ONS estimates of infection rates by age group. No it's far from a theory. It's probably about half of the 16-20 and 20-25 year age groups.

I guess it depends what you mean by “many”, @alreadytaken

To be fair. Yes we all now that some herd immunity is to be had from previous infections. However as this is the data thread I respect without numbers they are not factoring that in to much.

If you want that kind of positivity and a slight creative licence then you need to pop over to the good news thread. We don't mind throwing around a few educated theories or suggestions there.

*know

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/02/expert-expresses-fears-over-covid-outbreaks-at-bristol-schools?fbclid=IwAR1ZGxXD7ULXzLjmzK1-R4-_9TtZCwdjRWXPQo5JNip2GzAuSvtv-YLayok

• outbreaks at many schools in Bristol may signal rising, undetected, community spread.