Data, Stat, Daily Numbers started 26th May 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

The Economist had listed their excess deaths as 164,980 a month ago, so that's within range of the excess deaths or slightly low. They've had a rough time of it in Peru.

looking at today's data...obviously zero deaths (and only one reported yesterday) is pretty amazing. Overall the case numbers aren't too bad but if you look at the north west region only (where I am) it's pretty worrying though possibly a bit of a levelling off in recent days. Things seem to be heading down a bit in Bolton and Blackburn which is good but worsening significantly everywhere else.

While I think it's bonkers that Boris seems to be quite adamant to stick to 21st June freedom day I definitely think that the focus needs to turn to hospitalisations (bit of an increase but no panic stations) and deaths (still very low). Just imagine if we got bogged down the the numbers of people who go down with a cold or sniffle every single day. Not sure we're there yet but hopefully once everyone is vaccinated it might become almost irrelevant.

Just seen this tweet about Bolton

Bolton Hosptal has 42 Covid patients, with no new admissions in the past 24 hours and 1 discharge. It's holding steady, a positive sign given rise in cases locally over the past three weeks.

Yes, the Bolton healthcare picture so far looks cautiously optimistic.

I am concerned about other areas which have got lower vaccination rates than Bolton. Bolton seems to be pretty close to the England's average (71% for first doses, 44.8% for second doses vs 74.6%/49.4%). Manchester where cases are also on the rise is only at 50.2%/28.4%. This will not be sufficient to alleviate pressure on hospitals. I am just hoping the surge vaccination efforts are still continuing.

@wintertravel1980
agree vaccination picture in Manchester is worrying though I hear of some surge vaccinating going on last week - not sure about now though.
We're in stockport and while cases are surging the vaccination numbers are in line with the national average despite unfortunately the vast majority of us having to go out of borough to get vaccinated!

Thought this chart was helpful graphic showing why we are not close to 'vaccinated' yet - despite the government rhetoric:

twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1397931492873949190/photo/1

I am not sure Duncan Robertson's graphs are a fair representation of where we are with vaccinations.

Showing everyone under 40 (including children) as a single group comes across as misleading (at least to me). A more transparent approach would be to split the group into adults (18-40) and children. It is perfectly fine to report vaccinations as percentage of total population (ourworldindata website does it as well) - however presentation matters. There is a big difference between an unvaccinated 39 year old and an unvaccinated toddler.

@wintertravel1980

I am not sure Duncan Robertson's graphs are a fair representation of where we are with vaccinations.

Showing everyone under 40 (including children) as a single group comes across as misleading (at least to me). A more transparent approach would be to split the group into adults (18-40) and children. It is perfectly fine to report vaccinations as percentage of total population (ourworldindata website does it as well) - however presentation matters. There is a big difference between an unvaccinated 39 year old and an unvaccinated toddler.

I guess given the numbers are still in single figures in that group it makes little odds, maybe they will split out when there is more data?

The point is - at the bottom of the graph the numbers are very low.

But that’s what you’d expect taking into account it has not opened to this age gap. There will be a few vaccinated because of work or health problems but they’re still going through the early 30s atm. Soon it’ll be 18+

The point is - at the bottom of the graph the numbers are very low.

The numbers are so low because the last row includes children who are not yet eligible for vaccines.

If we look at adult age groups, the percentages will be much higher. For instance, even in London (the region with the lowest vaccine update) 15% of 18-24s have already been vaccinated.

@wintertravel1980

The point is - at the bottom of the graph the numbers are very low.

The numbers are so low because the last row includes children who are not yet eligible for vaccines.

If we look at adult age groups, the percentages will be much higher. For instance, even in London (the region with the lowest vaccine update) 15% of 18-24s have already been vaccinated.

Is it possoble you have misread the graph - this is second doses. Surely not 15% of 18-24s are on second doses?

If 15% ARE on second doses, then the chart is simply wrong!

Is it possoble you have misread the graph - this is second doses. Surely not 15% of 18-24s are on second doses?

Yes, sorry, you are right, I have misread the graph. My mistake.

Second doses for 18-24s are 7.58% in London but 11.93% in South West and 11.84% in North West. So these are small numbers but not zero.

[quote colouringcrayons]Thought this chart was helpful graphic showing why we are not close to 'vaccinated' yet - despite the government rhetoric:

twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1397931492873949190/photo/1[/quote]
The assumption behind that statement is that his category of yellow means stage 3 isn't appropriate. He's giving a message, but not stating clearly his parameters nor why he picked them, and that I don't like at all. Who made that percentage yellow on his graphs? Who confirmed the level of eased restrictions for stage 3 was too loose for that percentage? I think it's useful and nice to have graphs of percentage by age, and actually have no issue with him marking the current stage yellow - because I happen to agree that's a decent assessment. I don't agree that the restriction easing of 17th May is so significant as to be inappropriate given case rates and the measures still in place. Because I do think some health risk is acceptable balanced against the economic recovery needs.

Showing everyone under 40 (including children) as a single group comes across as misleading (at least to me)

I'm a bit mystified by it @wintertravel1980.

I presume he's; despite what his twitter feed says; using the most recent NHS weekly file. As that was published on 27th May and goes up to 23rd May jabs. I've not seen a duplicate publication from PHE; although that is not to say such a thing does not exist.

The NHS file provides 5 year breakdowns starting from age 40; and then lumps the 16-39s at the moment as a single group. I expect this Thursday we'll see the 35-39s added as specific band. The NHS file provides the population data for the 16-39 group and for the under 16s. Not sure therefore why he has lumped both together.

And that's before we get onto the population used. The general consensus as per the notes that accompany the NHS weekly file and the presentation on the dashboard is to use the most recent ONS mid year estimate for the England level uptake percentage and the NIMMS estimates for any geography below that.

He however has applied NIMMS population to the national figures. Using NIMMS indeed delivers 18% for that final group; whereas ONS would be 19.7%.

And just taking the 16-39s as the final group - perfectly understandable had he actually done so - would have yielded 27.6% (erroneously) using NIMMs and 32% using the ONS figure. Worth noting that the NIMMS 16-39 estimate is almost 2.8 million higher than the ONS figure (which of course in the 2019 based mid year estimate). The difference between the NIMMS 0-15 figure and that from the ONS is a much more reasonable 285k.

Could of course just be the typical misalignment between a twitterati's ego and intellectual ability

If the graph is second doses. Even if accurate factually. It is not accurate for are situation. We already know in areas such as London the percentage of people who have been infected is large. We also know from several studies now that if you have tested positive for covid previously then had one dose. You are as protected as having two doses. Whilst to make sure that is the case and you definitely have longevity you need the second dose. For the purpose of short term herd immunity these people count. Unfortunately there is currently no way working out how many people this applies too.

category of yellow is I think nothing more than the vagaries of applying excel's conditional formatting to the numbers. If I plug the same numbers in I can create exactly the same shading. No analysis involved. :)

Because I do think some health risk is acceptable balanced against the economic recovery needs

Balanced against the health risk of the restrictions! people are still not as active as pre-pandemic, GP's are still not seeing as many people (when they need to be seeing more to catch up) The restrictions are not health neutral!

I'd rather see chart with children lumped in with adults under 40 than one where they're missing altogether. The government dashboard currently gives a false impression of the proportion of people who are vaccinated because it shows only the proportion of over 18s. Even though it's quite clear that children catch and spread Covid.
I do agree though that the colours of the chart don't automatically tell you what level of unlocking is appropriate.

To be fair though, the dashboard does make it clear that vaccination figures only include those over 18.

From BBC Live Updates this afternoon:

Blackburn health chief calls for under 18s to be vaccinated

Covid vaccines for 12-to-18-year-olds are "desperately needed" to fight case numbers, the public health director for Blackburn with Darwen says.

Prof Dominic Harrison wants the Pfizer-BioNTech jab approved for the age group, warning that rates are "exceptionally high" in the area's 17 and 18 year olds.

He says there is a "very big shift" from the previous waves of the virus, with 13 out of the 21 people currently being treated in local hospitals aged below 55.

The latest government figures show that Blackburn with Darwen has the highest rate of cases in the country, with 416.2 cases per 100,000 residents in the week leading up to 31 May, an increase of 135 on the figure from seven days before.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-57309538

Deaths “plunge” after all Brazilian town’s (45,000 total pop) inhabitants vaccinated, but 75% seemed to give herd immunity.

The article doesn’t say whether there was any travel ban into and out of the town.

Covid vaccines for 12-to-18-year-olds are "desperately needed" to fight case numbers, the public health director for Blackburn with Darwen says.

Hmm.... I am not sure if the numbers support that.

Blackburn's vaccination rates for adult population are meaningfully below the national average: 67% for first doses and 39.1% for second doses. I feel very strongly we should continue with surge vaccinations but, in my humble opinion, the case for focusing on low risk population (children) instead of hesitant adults might not be sufficiently compelling.

@JanFebAnyMonth

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-57309538

Deaths “plunge” after all Brazilian town’s (45,000 total pop) inhabitants vaccinated, but 75% seemed to give herd immunity.

The article doesn’t say whether there was any travel ban into and out of the town.

Chise talks about that on her tweet

On her Twitter thread she is saying that residents of Serrana that travel daily from one city to another did not bring a relevant increase to the number of cases!

More on the Blackburn plea here:
www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/01/uk-not-approving-covid-jab-for-children-disappointing-says-health-chief?fbclid=IwAR1R2hUjgPs0twLzFSZxidbdraPZlH9ExGRCOZhlQcJOQv2Xm-VCdbrgXkQ

At the same time have just hear David Nabarro on R4 arguing very clearly for vaccines to go to vulnerable people in poorer countries rather than first world children at this point. As he put it, if a 60 year old diabetic in Nepal catches the coronavirus, they will very probably die. A 6 year old in Northampton, astonishingly unlikely to die. Quite apart from the fact that none are safe until all are safe, and the global trade problems a continuing epidemic causes.