The Four Tests are failed aren't they?

[PrincessNutNuts]

1. The vaccine programme continues to go to plan

Is it going to plan?

The plan was that the vaccine was rolled out evenly across the country by descending age groups with a 12 week gap between doses.

Now they're diverting vaccine supplies to do surge vaxxing of everyone over 18 in areas which have a higher prevalence of variant B1.617.2 (Indian) and the 12 week gap has gone.

Things have gone off plan a bit haven't they?

2. Evidence shows vaccines are reducing deaths and numbers requiring hospital treatment.

Does it? What evidence do we have that they do that in cases of variant B1.617.2? (Indian)

How do we know that where cases of variant B1.617.2 rise, hospitalisations and deaths don't?

Maybe there's just a time lag as there always was.

Hospital admissions in Bolton are back to March levels.

3. Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospital admissions.

Infection rates in Bolton have gone up 28% in 48 hours.

Sewage analysis indicates that vaccine surge and testing surge is now needed in Bedford, Burnley, Hounslow, Kirklees, Leicester, and North Tyneside as well as Glasgow and Moray.

4. New variants do not change the risk of lifting restrictions.

B1.617.2 (Indian) has spread to 86 locations in the U.K. in about a month.

Scientists believe it is between 50% and 60% more transmissible than the Kent variant that has kept us in restrictions for 8 months and still killed 80,000 people.

What do you think?

Are the four tests for opening up met?

Yes. The risk assessment for point 4 was changed late last week I think because of the Indian variant. Points 1-3 might not have been failed before 17th May, but point 4 was.

Not that this will surprise anybody.

There's a lot of speculation in your analysis, particularly in points 2 and 4.

My hospital had 450 Covid patients 3 months ago. We are now down to 25. And that's an area with the Indian variant. The vaccine is doing its job.

Not necessarily. Vaccines are still being given in other areas - I am near Oldham and they were offering to people in their early 30s the other day.

Last I looked (yesterday I think), there were app
23 people in hospital with covid in Bolton so not massive numbers?

News today suggests vaccines are effective against indian variant.

Overall trends on Gov't website show that cases, deaths,admissions, people in hospital and people on ventilators are all down.

Obviously, we don't want the Indian variant spreading massively, same way we don't want any other variant spreading massively, but, I don't think it's all doom and gloom (yet!).

Now they're diverting vaccine supplies to do surge vaxxing of everyone over 18 in areas which have a higher prevalence of variant B1.617.2 (Indian) and the 12 week gap has gone.

They aren’t doing this. They’re accelerating second doses for over fifties and really pushing to get people who are currently eligible to get vaccinated in those areas of concern.

They passed at May assessment

Whether they do for next when is in balance

We’ll see in a couple of weeks

Most of your points are based on speculation as opposed to fact.
For example, vaccines are not being diverted to other areas 🤦🏻‍♀️

Honestly OP, I really think that you have to start finding other ways to spend your time. You are literally obsessed with doom mongering on here, it's not healthy.

OMG, you again? Give it a rest

@ClaudiaWankleman

There's a lot of speculation in your analysis, particularly in points 2 and 4.

#2 says: 2. Evidence shows vaccines are reducing deaths and numbers requiring hospital treatment.

And my my "speculation " asks if it does?

Does it?

Is there evidence to show vaccine efficacy in the new variant?

As for 4,

if all the British scientists on SAGE have a high confidence that the Indian variant is at least 50% more transmissible than the last one which was 70% more transmissible than the one that ground the world to a halt

(and then do)

Then that's good enough for me.

Get. A. Grip.

For your own sake!’

@Toddlerteaplease

My hospital had 450 Covid patients 3 months ago. We are now down to 25. And that's an area with the Indian variant. The vaccine is doing its job.

Bolton had less a month ago than they have now...

What's your point?

Are the four tests for opening up met?

I don't understand your tense, are you meaning the 17th May relaxation of restrictions?

We can't go back in time and re-decide with what was then future information even if your observations were true and I'm not sure about that at all.

*fewer

No, they don't have a "high confidence" that it is 50% more transmissible. They said it was a "realistic possibility" that it could be as much as 50% more transmissible. "Realistic Possibility is a defined terms which means they are less that 50% certain.

Neil Fergusson has said recently that more recent data suggested it might not be as transmissible as originally feared. No one knows for sure yet, it's too early.

apple.news/AznrVsqYSQmi9yddyiEvOSA

I'd be interested in where you got the information that kirklees need surge testing and vaccinations. I live in Kirklees and have been told that there are less than 10 people with the Indian varient, all of which have it through travel and there are no community transmissions. Although rates are one of the highest in the country and have been consistently high throughout the pandemic, I have no idea why.

@PurpleDaisies

Now they're diverting vaccine supplies to do surge vaxxing of everyone over 18 in areas which have a higher prevalence of variant B1.617.2 (Indian) and the 12 week gap has gone.

They aren’t doing this. They’re accelerating second doses for over fifties and really pushing to get people who are currently eligible to get vaccinated in those areas of concern.

It's my understanding that in Bolton and Blackburn anyone over 16 can book a jab if They've done some shopping for their Gran or mowed her lawn they can be vaxxed under the unpaid carer rule. And they are being encouraged to do so.

Bolton Wanderers tweeted about it I think.

Literally knew who’d posted this without even looking...

@peboh

Most of your points are based on speculation as opposed to fact. For example, vaccines are not being diverted to other areas 🤦🏻‍♀️

How are they bringing forward the over 50s and running extra community vaccine centres without extra supplies?

Surge vaccination in some areas must require more vaccine.

What would you like to see happen OP? What would your plan be?

That would apply anywhere.

No high rates in any of my neighbouring county's. Ours is low in the table.

The number of actual hospital admissions from Indian is very low. This is manageable.

Oh God OP not you again. Please go and do something more effective with your time.