Quartz2208
“But the point is that we HAVENT been here before”
Well, every situation is unique, but the common thread is that the government picks and chooses from SAGE advice.
“yes we have been here before with the variant issues (Kent last year) but other variables have changed - why spend 5 solid months vaccinating people (and reports are at the moment that they are effective) if you go back and handle it in the exact same way you did before all of that. At some point we are going to have to see how they work.”
Because this time we have a ~50% more transmissible variant. Yes, people are vaccinated but nowhere near enough. It is bad timing. I’d agree with your point if it was August and all age groups had been vaccinated. The spread is going to be massive.
Also, I’d just like to point out that we never lived with the Kent variant in as much freedom as we are about to have from Monday. We were in tiers or full lockdown.
“The report that lonelyplanet states they have no idea whether the growth they are seeing at a local level (presumably within households and close knit communities) means that will translate into greater community spread.”
True.
“The truth is at the moment they just dont know - and I suspect the effects of going back now on a national level are too great.”
The eternal conundrum. You’re right of course, we don’t know. We can never know until it’s too late. I’d wait a few more weeks as the consequences are unbearable to think about.