Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th May

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
CovidMessanger has a been a great daily resource but will cease until further notice from May 10th. I hope the thread speaks on behalf of the very many posters and lurkers who have greatly valued this service when we say a huge thank you to littleowl for all her work in creating and sharing it.

I think there was some (fairly weak) evidence that a 12 week gap worked better than a 3 week gap for AZ. But whether 8 weeks is better or worse isn't really known. Probably not much long term impact - though a bit of an impact in the weeks immediately following the second dose I guess (compared to if you were still waiting for it), and if you're in an area with a big outbreak then that might be the time when it's most useful to be that bit more protected.

We just got word from school that in line with gov advice pupils will not need to wear masks in schools in any areas.
Is there not one single biology teacher who knows better and could advise the HT???

I need to decide whether to move my second vaccine from week 12, next week will be week 9. My area has had very few variant and cases are low, holiday is near zero cases area, my conditions shouldn't lead to low immunity. DH will only be single jabbed whatever I do. I'd rather leave it for the slightly better long-term immunity, but I think I'd probably tell others to do as they're told by PHE so that leaves me conflicted. Thoughts?

@TheSunIsStillShining

We just got word from school that in line with gov advice pupils will not need to wear masks in schools in any areas. Is there not one single biology teacher who knows better and could advise the HT???

My 12 year old DC is very adamant that he will choose to continue with the masks, even though his school is not recommending it with the former strength.

It continues to be an option in school (just as it previously was an option and not absolutely mandatory).

Here's SPI-M report. I don't understand why it is being ignored by the government.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/986709/S1237_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement.pdf

This is in that report.

When this scenario is a possibility, based on modelling from areas already affected, why are we motoring on with removing restrictions? The removal of masks in schools seems particularly stupid, when lots of the large recent outbreaks have been centred around schools.

The government is knowingly allowing a resurgence which will inevitably lead us to needing further restrictions. I feel very angry about this.

@lonelyplanet

The government is knowingly allowing a resurgence which will inevitably lead us to needing further restrictions. I feel very angry about this.

I have a funny feeling we've been here before...

@lonelyplanet

The government is knowingly allowing a resurgence which will inevitably lead us to needing further restrictions. I feel very angry about this.

They never learn 🙄🤦‍♀️😔

They said on the news yesterday that they were going to retain masks in schools in Lancashire. Apologies, but can't find the link.

I think the reason we're still opening up is because in other respects things have gone better than expected. Vaccine uptake was higher than expected especially in the oldest age groups, and new evidence suggests that being vaccinated reduces transmission even in people who catch it anyway post vaccine. However, we have a new variant that seems more contagious, but no signs that it evades the vaccine. So that puts us - overall - roughly where we'd have expected to be in mid May, when the roadmap was first set out.

Having said that I always thought it seemed unwise to allow nightclubs to open up a few weeks before vaccinating the 18-25 age group, and suspect the limits on indoor hospitality due to end on 21 June will be pushed back by a month or so to July.

I think there was some (fairly weak) evidence that a 12 week gap worked better than a 3 week gap for AZ. But whether 8 weeks is better or worse isn't really known.

Here is the actual study comparing vaccine efficacy results with different gaps between the two doses. The summary table on page 5 seems to indicate that the 12 week interval works better than the 9-11 weeks gap:

www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2821%2900432-3

But the point is that we HAVENT been here before, yes we have been here before with the variant issues (Kent last year) but other variables have changed - why spend 5 solid months vaccinating people (and reports are at the moment that they are effective) if you go back and handle it in the exact same way you did before all of that. At some point we are going to have to see how they work.

The report that lonelyplanet states they have no idea whether the growth they are seeing at a local level (presumably within households and close knit communities) means that will translate into greater community spread.

The truth is at the moment they just dont know - and I suspect the effects of going back now on a national level are too great.

Blackburn schools will continue with face coverings

theshuttle.org.uk/continued-use-of-face-coverings-in-schools/

Can anyone tell me (if it's possible to tell) whether the increase in cases in Bolton/somewhere similar has yet led to an increase in hospitalisations? Is it too early to tell?

@DownRightAmazing

Can anyone tell me (if it's possible to tell) whether the increase in cases in Bolton/somewhere similar has yet led to an increase in hospitalisations? Is it too early to tell?

There's been a very slight increase in hospitalisations in Bolton, but numbers are too low to give much concrete info and it's a low vaccination area. As frustrating as wait-and-see is, it'll be another couple of weeks to get a better idea if the new variant has a different impact on hospitalisations, vaccinated infections or even spread.

The report says that there are early signs that it has, @DownRightAmazing.

Difficult Mrex, as @Firefliess posted above, the problem is no one knows whether they’re going to be in the middle of an outbreak in 1-3 weeks’ time really, do they? Which is why the advice has changed.

Hmm yes.

Thankfully DC school has opted for masks in communal areas. They have seating plans and are kept in them quite strictly though they can be changed to another fixed plan by SMT for behavioural issues.

That article doesn't say that though @winter. The confidence intervals are significantly overlapping between the 9-11 week group and the 12+ week group. The conclusion is only that 12+ weeks is better than

Something went wrong with that last post. (MN doesn't like the "less than" sign!) I meant to say the conclusion of the article was only that 12+ weeks was better than 6 or less weeks. But that if you're in an area where an outbreak is happening now, it's better to have that extra protection sooner rather than later. I think it's quite marginal if you're in a low rate area.

Thanks @Firefliess. This week is tricky and I'm away week 11, so there's a window in week 10 or I'll stay at week 12 anyway. If I get told it's important and there's a walk-in then I suppose I'll go, but otherwise wait, there's probably not much in it.

@MRex

I need to decide whether to move my second vaccine from week 12, next week will be week 9. My area has had very few variant and cases are low, holiday is near zero cases area, my conditions shouldn't lead to low immunity. DH will only be single jabbed whatever I do. I'd rather leave it for the slightly better long-term immunity, but I think I'd probably tell others to do as they're told by PHE so that leaves me conflicted. Thoughts?

I would wait. I am one of those on antibody tests for research. I had AZ and at 6 weeks had no antibody response. At ten weeks I had antibodies. This seems to suggest there is a slow increase in immunity after the official two weeks. I had my second dose at 12 weeks. On the other hand if you are in good health you may have mounted a strong resonse straight away and would lose very little by having a shorter gap.

A gradual increase in antibodies over the weeks following vaccination could be explanation for the apparent benefit from a longer dosing interval though couldn't it? Ie it might not actually matter when you have you second dose, your immunity just goes on building up gradually over the 10 weeks or so following your first dose (with a bit is a boost whenever that's given)

twitter.com/rob_aldridge/status/1393161089060384769?s=19 interesting thread on Twitter about the benefits of the second dose - seems to be particularly important for certain higher risk groups whose immune systems aren't so good. Not much relevance to current debate though as the ECV group should all have had their second dose already, as well as most of group 6. The ones they're talking about accelerating are largely the healthy 50 somethings (plus any vulnerable people who were late getting their first shot for some reason I guess)

I'm group 6 and was mid march, they were still doing group 6 when group 9 had almost finished in early April because it takes so much longer to work out priorities than just jab by age.