Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th May

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
CovidMessanger has a been a great daily resource but will cease until further notice from May 10th. I hope the thread speaks on behalf of the very many posters and lurkers who have greatly valued this service when we say a huge thank you to littleowl for all her work in creating and sharing it.

Schools are also being encouraged to reintroduce assemblies, clubs, residentials...

@MRex

If I remember correctly, the original Warwick and Imperial models assumed far more transmission from vaccinated people and lower take-up. I'm concerned about staying locked down or coming out. What we need is more data, it's still very early days.

Ok this is interesting

Does anyone know does SAGE use this modelling (Warwick and Imperial) in their meetings?

Wondering where they get their data from

[quote boys3]@lurker101 DS3 is Y13 and will finish his confirmatory assessments, if I remember the term correctly, next week. And that's the end of school. That timescale seems to apply to most schools / sxith forms round here. Not sure on the Y11 cohort although I'm sure one of the numerous emails from the Head covered it.

However as @Firefliess observed its unlikely that many of those finishing then plan to lead a hermit like existence over the coming weeks and months.[/quote]
Thanks everyone good to hear it’s more widespread. Hopefully now that masks are required for over 11s they will be wearing masks when required once school breaks up!

I think this is a nice balanced article which sums up the situation

inews.co.uk/news/politics/indian-variant-vaccine-efficacy-covid-strain-modest-reduction-1001431

OK, I have been called for jab 2 just under 8 weeks form jab one. Am in Indian Variant area. Bit confused. Best to try to push towards 12 weeks form what you say or get jabbed asap? No health conditions .

As in the area you are, better to get short term protection because you are at risk now. That’s what the SAGE report concludes piggy.

What is the actual difference in effect between having second vaccine at say 10 week gap and 12 week gap and does this vary according to the vaccine, eg are the stats different for Pfizer and AZ? Is there any definite data on this?

@Piggywaspushed

Schools are also being encouraged to reintroduce assemblies, clubs, residentials...

The guidance still explicitly says

You should avoid large gatherings such as assemblies or collective worship with more than one group.

So assemblies should not be happening!

I will bear that in mind. We are certainly planning ones for transfer days .

@MarshaBradyo

Does anyone know does SAGE use this modelling (Warwick and Imperial) in their meetings?

Wondering where they get their data from

The Warwick and Imperial models are drawn on but the Spi government consensus group. See www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-o-consensus-statement-on-covid-19-17-february-2021

I imagine that's what SAGE will focus on in their meetings (though would assume that most of them would read the individual models as well if that's their thing)

@Piggywaspushed

I will bear that in mind. We are certainly planning ones for transfer days .

I guess if they are planned for post June 21, then the assumption will be restrictions will have been relaxed more by then....

@MarshaBradyo

Does anyone know does SAGE use this modelling (Warwick and Imperial) in their meetings?

Wondering where they get their data from

They quote from two different Warwick models while looking at different things. The old ones looked at more transmissible variants and the new one looked at where we're at with the lower transmission from vaccinated people. SPI-M-O looked at the model from 17th Feb. These were the assumptions.

@Piggywaspushed

OK, I have been called for jab 2 just under 8 weeks form jab one. Am in Indian Variant area. Bit confused. Best to try to push towards 12 weeks form what you say or get jabbed asap? No health conditions .

I would guess the Indian variant will end up being shown to be a bit more transmissible than Kent, though nowhere near as much as 50%. If you're near Bolton, Blackburn, Bury or Bedford and anyone in your household needs to leave the house much in the next 6 weeks then it's probably best to get it, because the second dose reduces transmission risk and any more transmissible variant is likely to become the dominant strain. If you can wait until 10 or 12 weeks because you are further away or able to stay home then that's better.

No, can't stay home. Teacher! (Hollow laugh). Am in one of those Bs.

Guess I go for it then.

@Piggywaspushed

No, can't stay home. Teacher! (Hollow laugh). Am in one of those Bs.

Guess I go for it then.

I'd definitely want the booster as soon as possible if I was you then!

Sorry, but yeah I think earlier will be better. If it's any consolation, coming into contact with covid after your vaccines take effect should strengthen your immunity further.

Piggy I was able to book my second AZ jab within a month of the first, (1st in Feb, second in March) due to a glitch/loophole on the GP’s online booking system. As I was teaching, and had to spend my days with a selection of unvaccinated strangers on a weekly basis, I took it, on the basis that the original trials showed significant increased protection after 3 weeks. I’ve rarely in my life felt such a sense of relief as on getting that second jab.

Some potential good news - Zoe's daily transmission rate has stabilised over past 4 days and might have even started dropping (from 2,780 yesterday to 2,602 today).

I still find Zoe a very good early indicator. It started showing rapid growth about 10 days ago with cases going up 60% over 5 days. Looks like this fast increase might have now stopped.

Scotland are showing a huge rise in cases today, but thats because they had reporting issues yesterday so missing cases have been added on to today's numbers

MRex

You said
“ I would guess the Indian variant will end up being shown to be a bit more transmissible than Kent, though nowhere near as much as 50%.”

But everything I am reading, including the latest SPI-M-O report (12th May, posted on page 9 of this thread by lonelyplanet) estimates 50% more transmissible than Kent.

Do these estimates tend to come down significantly?

The latest SAGE minutes state "there is a realistic possibility" that the Indian variant may be 50% more transmissible than the Kent variant. "The realistic possibility" implies a 40-50% probability (based on SAGE definitions).

I am with MRex. I have been convinced since I saw Zoe's numbers spiking that the Indian variant is more transmissible but I do not think the differential is as high as 50%.

MRex - if they offer you an earlier slot then i'd consider it but I wouldn't cancel your second in the hope getting an earlier appointment.

I had my second today (11 weeks from first) and the centre was very busy with a Disney'esque queue of people. Even with a booked appointment there was a 45 minute wait. Once inside, the 12 waiting chairs from 11 weeks ago had multiplied to 20. In the past they've taken walk-ins, but not today and people were being turned away.

Just thinking if they do manage to move forward some people expecting dose 2 at 12 weeks to 8 weeks without impacting my on first doses then presumably that will free up some more first dose appointment next month. Sounds like an admin nightmare.

Dr Helen Wall, who is leading the vaccination effort in Bolton, said the target for Saturday was to distribute 4,000 jabs.

She said 10,000 people eligible for jabs had yet to be vaccinated in the BL4 and BL5 postcode areas, with issues like not having phone credit to make a booking often cited as a reason for putting off taking the vaccine.

Asked what would happen if a younger person turned up for a jab, Dr Wall said vaccinators were following the guidance but would "look for reasons to vaccinate people, not reasons not to within those criteria of eligibility".