Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th May

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
CovidMessanger has a been a great daily resource but will cease until further notice from May 10th. I hope the thread speaks on behalf of the very many posters and lurkers who have greatly valued this service when we say a huge thank you to littleowl for all her work in creating and sharing it.

The wired article linked above on the airborne nature of Covid AND prior respiratory disease including flu is worth a read.
Can someone tell the architects too.

@Frazzled2207

I'm hoping the specimen date positive tests in Bolton may be peaking

9th May 111
10th may 147
11th may 142
12th May 132
13th May 36

obvs there is a lag on the last couple of days, hopefully it's not significant for the 12th and earlier. What do others reckon?

Cautious optimism suggests it may have reached a plateau in Bolton, another few days needed to increase confidence in that.

Of the other outliers.

Erewash looks to be on a clear downward trajectory.

Bedford maybe peaking

Blackburn, looks still to have an upward trajectory.

After those four areas nowhere else close in terms of rates. Next highest Selby at 64 per 100,000

Kirklees at 62 and Melton (????) at 60. Without looking at any numbers given Melton was in single digits just over a week back I’m thinking school

Without looking at any numbers given Melton was in single digits just over a week back I’m thinking school

And you are right - the highest prevalence rate is in the age group 15 to 19 (followed by age 10-15).

As a slight aside I was a little surprised to see that first dose vaccine rates in Bedford and Bolton are really quite similar. Both bumbling around in the lower reaches of the third quartile for most age bands. Bolton better (in a relative sense than I expected, and Bedford worse. Similar for second dose take up too.

Has Boris had anything of any import to say at the Press Conference.

A purely rhetorical question

I see he’s not actually started yet. Looks like I’m going to have to suffer it after all. Time for

Really quite cautious words from Boris

Erm, Boris just coughed.

Do we have any idea how long antibodies last..?

I think it was an embarrassed throat clear as he realised he had been put on the spot!

You'd think he'd be used to that.

He’s worried, isn’t he? I was surprised he said (several times) that Step Four may be affected. Also it’s significant that they’re shortening the gap between doses of course.

I hadn’t realised that the vaccine effect In transmissibility was much more with the second dose than the first.

I thought vaccine uptake in Bedford was quite good so that surprises me too. There was an initial issue with rollout and availability but all sorted afaik

I hadn’t realised that the vaccine effect In transmissibility was much more with the second dose than the first.

Hmmm.... I am not sure giving out second doses to over 50s and vulnerable individuals will help with reducing transmissions.

The younger groups are more socially active and therefore much more likely to drive transmissions. My personal view is that we should start surge vaccinating younger people. I appreciate vaccine supply is limited but if I had been in charge of the vaccination program, I would have offered AZ to those under 40s in hotspot areas who are willing to take it. I am ready to bet there will be demand.

The younger groups are more socially active and therefore much more likely to drive transmissions. My personal view is that we should start surge vaccinating younger people. I appreciate vaccine supply is limited but if I had been in charge of the vaccination program, I would have offered AZ to those under 40s in hotspot areas who are willing to take it. I am ready to bet there will be demand.

I was saying the same to dd, but she's pointed out that younger ones aren't meant to be having the AZ, so that's probably why.

A question if you don't mind.

Are we supposed to pay any attention to the R rate at the moment.

Way back when they said if cases are low to ignore the R rate because small increases would make it jump up etc

Is that the case at the moment? I know we do have the India variant rising but I mean the overall picture of cases.

The younger groups are more socially active and therefore much more likely to drive transmissions.

The younger groups attend schools.

@wintertravel1980

I hadn’t realised that the vaccine effect In transmissibility was much more with the second dose than the first.

Hmmm.... I am not sure giving out second doses to over 50s and vulnerable individuals will help with reducing transmissions.

The younger groups are more socially active and therefore much more likely to drive transmissions. My personal view is that we should start surge vaccinating younger people. I appreciate vaccine supply is limited but if I had been in charge of the vaccination program, I would have offered AZ to those under 40s in hotspot areas who are willing to take it. I am ready to bet there will be demand.

From the yellow card report: "This safety update report is based on detailed analysis of data up to 5 May 2021. At this date, an estimated 11.4 million first doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and 23.3 million first doses of the COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca had been administered, and around 8.7 million and 7.5 million second doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca respectively. An approximate 0.1 million first doses of the COVID-19 Vaccine Moderna have also now been administered."

Maximum 2.7m more Pfizer second doses to give, the majority of which would need to be held back anyway as they are due this month. We were on I think 10.6m Pfizer first doses by end of first week of March (from memory), so it's really a minimal effect if those go early.

Meanwhile 15.8m second doses of AZ that can be given out to increase immunity by an extra fraction. If mumsnet is representative then people under 40 wouldn't take AZ anyway, inappropriate messaging (IMO and not all UK) around very tiny risks has made that impossible.

I was saying the same to dd, but she's pointed out that younger ones aren't meant to be having the AZ, so that's probably why.

The younger people are supposed to be given a choice.

It is true that the risk of developing blood clots and the risk of ICU admission become comparable when Covid prevalence is "low" (defined by JCVI as 20 cases over 100,000 population over 7 days). However Bolton is nearly 10 times that (200/100,000). The risks and benefits of AZ vaccination at this level start looking very differently.

Of course, some people will refuse AZ but others may make rational informed choices. I know I would've.

@MarshaBradyo - the answer to red list question was that Pakistan had 3* as many variants of concern as India, in particular they had a lot of SA variant. India variant at the time not a VOC. (Sorry, can't be bothered to find what thread you asked that on and only just watched the briefing.)

Yes that’s an interesting point about the risk of clots with AZ only being higher than if infected with Covid whilst cases are low. I wonder if people who were concerned about the clots can be persuaded back to AZ....

Anecdotal but I’ve been reading (on Reddit so take that as you will) that voluntary uptake of the AZ vaccine in Germany and other countries who’ve offered it to those who want it has been pretty high.

The second doses of Pfizer have been mostly completed now. People now coming up for their second doses are mostly due AZ, which are being supplied at a rate of 2m per week. But we're not using many of them for first doses any more now that we're onto the under 40s. So accelerating the second doses for the over 50s who were jabbed in March isn't going to slow things down at all for anyone else.

I think surge vaccination might work a bit to tackle vaccine hesitancy - you could try to get whole families to come in together, and maybe try to get them tested (LFTs) at the same time. They really need to go down to age 16 though to have more effect - it's the under 20s have the highest rates.

So accelerating the second doses for the over 50s who were jabbed in March isn't going to slow things down at all for anyone else.

I agree it is not going to slow things down but the AZ efficacy is higher when the interval between the two doses is closer to 12 weeks rather than 8 weeks. It would have been more impactful to offer AZ as first doses to younger groups on the voluntary basis. Surely, there are sensible people in Bolton, Blackburn and other hot spots who might be take on the offer.

... who might be willing to take on the offer.

AZ seems to be working well in India and they are using a short gap between doses apparently. Looks like the shorter gap just affects the infection and transmission. As people are still getting the virus but not getting very sick. However even that could just be the percentage you would expect as no vaccine is 100%. I don't think anyone knows yet.