Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th May

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
CovidMessanger has a been a great daily resource but will cease until further notice from May 10th. I hope the thread speaks on behalf of the very many posters and lurkers who have greatly valued this service when we say a huge thank you to littleowl for all her work in creating and sharing it.

Warning, opinion founded on bits of facts - Asia mostly had the original variant got a long time because all Asian countries were being fairly careful. That variant was easier to keep out, the new transmissible variants are there now and the result inevitably is more cases until they tighten up significantly because the old controls simply aren't enough. Singapore it's India variant, Japan is Kent, poor India has both. Thailand had Kent but now worrying about South Africa (and going massively over the top about it, you'd think they were China). I expect those who have had good controls in the past will tighten up again and still end up with a lower death rate, just a bumpy period for some.

Is it remotely possible that by missing out on the spread of a 'lesser variant that they could be missing out on the immunity conferred by it amongst large parts of the population and so when this more serious variant gets in it can cause more damage?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57221740
Trials in some areas of much increased support for those testing positive: mental health support, translation services, option of moving else where for those in crowded homes, all sounds wonderful. However the elephant in the room is no wider criteria for the financial support, no mention even of checking people have applied for it, although let’s hope that’s just an omission from the article.

Govt hopes to up compliance rates for both testing and isolating.

After the twitterstorm over the weekend I have come across this one by James Ward which is fairly balanced. In short, removing all restrictions next months is an extremely risky move. twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1396615795975798787

It's not balanced if it doesn't mention any of the risks of not removing restrictions.

@sirfredfredgeorge

It's not balanced if it doesn't mention any of the risks of not removing restrictions.

It seemed balanced to me, he's saying there'll be a minor uptick but it should be brief until vaccination and summer catch us up. I'd say at the moment that the most important thing is not to go backwards anywhere. Pubs, restaurants, shops and services need to stay open. Reducing distancing should wait until cases are back to going down again. I expect a half-and-half approach that everyone will grumble about, adding a few bits but keeping mostly to 17th May restrictions and review again every 3 weeks.

@MRex
I hope you're right. I can live with the restrictions as they are for the forseeable and I imagine many people feel the same way.
yes it's looking difficult for things like nightclubs and indoor theatre however proof of vaccination and/or testing could massively mitigate the risks for these.

Also it makes a very strong case for vaccinating the teenagers. Even before the argument that that will help broader society then surely that has a strong chance of reducing bubble closures etc which are so disruptive.

I expect a half-and-half approach that everyone will grumble about, adding a few bits but keeping mostly to 17th May restrictions and review again every 3 weeks

So what did he say about parkrun and other similar public health benefits, 1.2 million new completely inactive adults, that's one of the relaxing, what's the cost of more and more inactive adults? There's no health harm from that presumably, that's the normal lockdown assertion, inactivity is irrelevant but pubs have to be open.

@sirfredfredgeorge
parkruns were all set to open in late june .However landowners and councils are in many cases not allowing even though as it stands there won't be a legal reason not to. Which means that ALL parkruns (except junior ones) are now cancelled for the forseeable because if more than a certain number don't start up again, it will put pressure on all the rest, which could make them unsafe .Basically they won't restart until they have the ok to restart virtually all of them

I know nothing about parkrun, it should be allowed in my opinion as it's outside. This article suggests it's landowner permission rather than law or guidance that's the issue:
blog.parkrun.com/uk/2021/05/21/parkrun-to-delay-restart-of-5k-events-in-england/.
Any idea if it's individual decisions or any major landowners refusing permission? Mostly wondering if a significant miner are Royal Parks, who have made some extremely odd decisions (no cycling nor toilets because pandemic etc).

*number not miner

@sirfredfredgeorge

It's not balanced if it doesn't mention any of the risks of not removing restrictions.

It's not an economic or political weighing up of pros and cons, just modelling of the likely scale of case rates in the light of what look to me to be very balanced assumptions about transmission, and updated already to show the impact of the Indian strain being a bit more infectious and/or a bit less affected by vaccines.

What I'm hoping (and also consider the most likely option) is that the remaining outdoor restrictions will be lifted as planned on 21 June, but we'll retain the existing indoor restrictions for a month or two longer until all adults have been offered at least one jab and most people have had two. I think most people could live with that ok.

With the exception of all the people with July and August weddings booked, some for the 3rd time, like my sister.

I always wonder with the models produced whether or not they assume that 100% of those available to be infected, potentially will be.

We know from observation of this and previous pandemics that a lot of people, probably the majority, just don't succomb. For instance, that useful accidental experiment on the Diamond Princess showed that 1 in 5 caught Covid while they were all mixing with no precautions and sometimes one of a couple sharing a cabin caught it and one didn't. They tested most people on board so asymptomatic cases, about half, were picked up.

It's not very accurate but it seems to be thought that around 1/3 of the population caught Spanish Flu and a similar number (very inaccurate) the Plague. My experience of Norovirus suggests that between 1 and 2 of the 4 of us caught it each time it visited my family.

If they do assume that some people just won't catch Covid, what proportion of the population do they take that as? How do they decide? Antibody tests last year were suggesting that about 1 in 7 people had had Covid, with or without symtoms, but presumably that changes over time. Assumptions of the number could dramatically affect the models.

@ILookAtTheFloor

With the exception of all the people with July and August weddings booked, some for the 3rd time, like my sister.

I do think those with weddings should be allowed to go ahead with a sensible person cap.

Wedding receptions can go ahead in NI from today, with the maximum numbers determined by the venue based on a risk assessment which they conduct themselves based on size of venue etc. etc. In practice last year that meant a lot of 100+ weddings were able to go ahead (albeit with only the first dance permitted) so England will have a few weeks of data from that to help make a decision on weddings

insane IMO that you can have thousands at football matches but not have a decent wedding. If it were me getting married I think I would be asking for everyone to do an LFT test before coming though, given that they are very much freely available.

Cases going up a fair bit now.

Will be clear in the next few days if this is translating into increased admissions.

Did anyone see in the news the government volte face on choirs? Football matches tick. Pubs , tick. School music lessons , tick. Choirs : not on your nelly, unless professional. No more than 6 people.

Cases definitely accelerating in the 4 local schools I know of.

Let us hope that Bolton has turned the corner. The test positivity rate has been going down over past 5 days.

The remaining hotspots are, unfortunately, still on the rise (with Blackburn hitting 7.9% - a relatively high level at the current stage of pandemic).

@Piggywaspushed

Did anyone see in the news the government volte face on choirs? Football matches tick. Pubs , tick. School music lessons , tick. Choirs : not on your nelly, unless professional. No more than 6 people.

yes. Shameful, though apparently in Wales it's ok.

Well, guess there'd be a riot in Wales if they were told not to sing!