Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th May

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
CovidMessanger has a been a great daily resource but will cease until further notice from May 10th. I hope the thread speaks on behalf of the very many posters and lurkers who have greatly valued this service when we say a huge thank you to littleowl for all her work in creating and sharing it.

Aren’t the key points re AZ efficacy that (1) due to the nature of roll out Pfizer vaccinated individuals were further out in terms of weeks last dose than AZ. The PHE seem to think AZ efficacy will increase as time from second dose lengthens ( we have to assume they have data to indicate this ) (2) this is only talking about symptomatic infection and not severe illness and hospitalisation which they think protection will be higher ( and initial real world data seems to back this up). So on an individual level that is reassuring. I get there are arguments that even ‘ mild’ Covid can be deeply unpleasant but that is the case for many illnesses. On a population level reduction in transmission is obviously slightly more concerning.

Also as above these are still limited data sets even in real world setting.

As ever there just isn’t enough data yet on this to draw firm conclusions.

This seems to be making the same point about timing twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1396409964239917056?s=19

As someone who used to work in the scientific field I’ve also been surprised how ‘science’ is seen as some sort of absolute and ‘scientists’ as above politicking/ personal gain/ ego as if all work for some higher good. In reality it’s not much different to any other field ( particularly in academia) ( and possibly particularly those who are drawn to put their views on Twitter - although I get some genuinely feel it’s a public duty to try and simplify/explain the science)

Ilovecrumpets same I hate the concept of the science making it a specific thing which it isn’t there are different types of data on this which can be interpreted in different ways depending on your end goal.

There is no “the science” no absolute conclusion to be drawn. Even the data on vaccine efficacy can be read differently depending on what you want

I guess that is the point of this thread - to share all the data and the varying views on it.

The problem with science is that although science is accurate, medicine is an inexact science as bodies aren't all the same.
There is also the issue of manipulating statistics to what they want to say.

Thanks for the balanced twitter recommendations. My feed was definitely leaning to the pessimistic side.

When all this is over, my twitter is going to be very dull, it's 90% full of covid analysis, 10% brexit rants.

But that is why I want to know the reasoning behind people's conclusions.
I know at the start of the pandemic before it had taken off here, there were lots of reasons given as to why the UK would be okay that made no real sense.
So with the Indian variant I want to know is it more transmissible? The answer appears to be yes but how much is under dispute. Is it more deadly? There is no evidence of that. Do the vaccines work? One jab not really. Two jabs yes but its effectiveness may range from 80-95%
So it becomes a numbers game. Put crudely if 100 people would have died from this if they were unvaccinated, then if they are vaccinated between 5-20 people will die.
So if numbers infected are very high, we could still have a surge in deaths. However if the same number of people get infected as last summer, we will have deaths, but less.
I suspect a key factor will be whether vaccines reduce transmissibility. Scientists appear to be saying yes. But by how much? That the jury seems to be out on.
Where I live cases are low, but nearly all of the new cases are of the Indian variant. So we will see quite quickly just how transmissible it is in terms of case numbers.

@astery I don’t think you can say the vaccines ‘aren’t effective’ after one dose. The limited data released is for getting symptomatic covid not for severe covid or death.

@Ilovecrumpets yes, that is true. But currently, there is no evidence of efficacy for one dose against the Indian variant.
I personally do not expect that to change as initial research was showing the same with the Brazilian variant. And I suspect this is partly why these variants are being flagged as of concern.
But of course nobody real;y knows until three or four months down the line when we either have lots of dead or only some dead.
The one-dose strategy was effective against the Kent variant.

Looking at the data today, there seems to be a definite 'uptick' (sorry horrid phrase) in areas bordering Bolton and Blackburn. The map is going rather more dark green. That all said overall the map is looking a lot more yellow now, especially in the south west and along the south coat.

42 deaths registered in the last week really is amazingly low. Seems comparable with what it was in late August 2020.

Have looked up deaths in Bolton - (hospitalisations still low but a few days out of date). There were 4 in April 2021, and thus far in May 2021 there are 3. In August 2021 there were 5, despite there being very low prevalence of the virus during the summer (7 day average of cases was about 10, compared with 180 currently). That would surely suggest that the vaccine is having quite a stunning affect on reducing deaths.

So with the Indian variant I want to know is it more transmissible? The answer appears to be yes but how much is under dispute

I'm not sure there's even actually much evidence of that, there's only strong evidence against original, not "kent" variant.

But currently, there is no evidence of efficacy for one dose against the Indian variant

No, there is evidence, just not conclusive, this is actually like most of the evidence for any of it. However given the more confidence that it is similarly effective with two doses (or longer time since first) then a hypothesis that "the vaccine works completely fine and exactly the same after 5 weeks, but is completely different until 5 weeks" is not a very likely hypothesis.

All these studies on effectiveness (including the original ones) are so sensitive to what's happening in the wider society that they need to be taken as indications only in my mind. The case reductions in vaccinated groups everywhere including India is the main reason to be confident, not looking at the differences in a few dozen cases in different communities in small towns/regions.

Manchester has started to do some surge vaccinating in some of those darker green areas.

Worldometer seems to be updating very slowly at the moment. It used to be updated for the UK within 30 minutes of the government website, but it still isn't updated now.

Covid rate for Salford has gone up this week by 38% according to the Manchester Evening News.

@EducatingArti

Covid rate for Salford has gone up this week by 38% according to the Manchester Evening News.

Indeed but remember that from low numbers only an extra handful of cases can make a big difference. Stockport doubled recently but went back down again. Our rate is only about 30 per 100,000 which is basically an average of 9/10 per day.

Thank you for that reassurance. I hope we manage to get on top of it quickly.

Hounslow, the only London borough that was dark green on 11 May, and an area where there was concern over Indian Variant, has returned to light green again for 18 May.

News from Japan is troubling. I thought their cases looked lower and went looking for good news, but it'll need more time. It's frustrating that they were hoarding over 10m vaccine doses by end of April and then had many vaccine roll-out issues, while there is a steep rise in cases.
japantoday.com/category/national/no-one's-safe-anymore-japan's-osaka-city-crumples-under-covid-19-onslaught.
Hopefully they'll get on top of it soon.

@MRex
I lived in Japan and have friends there so follow closely.
Initially I think they did well in part due to compliant population and everyone is happy to wear masks. Good levels of hygiene etc. Amazing given how crammed in everyone is.

But their bureaucracy has really held them back in term of vaccine rollout. Until last week I think they only had Pfizer approved and had not ordered enough of it early enough.

I hope for the athletes’ sakes the Olympics goes ahead but I can totally see that from the local’s pov it looks bonkers.

Yes, it's surprising to see the disorganisation. It looks like they've been hampered a bit by not having much of an army to do some of the tasks. Armies can be very useful when you need people to just go and do the same thing in lots of places, quickly. It's entirely on government that they didn't organise vaccine approvals and set-up of the sites much earlier though, it's May and they've been watching people everywhere be jabbed for over 5 months already.

IIRC from an article on the collapsing Osaka hospitals last week, some of the places that were due to host athlete are now refusing to.

Sounds from that article like they are having the same issue with running out of sedatives for intubation that Brazil had. I don’t think I’ve seen that mentioned anywhere else.

I thought Japan had properly closed their borders to prevent this?

They were always being used as an example of how an island can close borders and keep cases low!

I think they’ve tightened them recently, so there must have been some holes somewhere.

Japanese nationals and foreign residents in Japan could always go in after a negative test and with quarantine at home. Transit passengers are allowed within 24 hoyrs. Then there's all the freight; like the UK they don't make all their own food. Closed borders aren't quite North Korea. (And didn't even North Korea have an outbreak some months back?)