Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th May

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
CovidMessanger has a been a great daily resource but will cease until further notice from May 10th. I hope the thread speaks on behalf of the very many posters and lurkers who have greatly valued this service when we say a huge thank you to littleowl for all her work in creating and sharing it.

Jan - quite!

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57214596

UK Data shows both AZ and Pfizer protect against Indian variant but much more so after second dose. (Not huge numbers of IV included though - 1,054 here.)

Surprise. Fancy needing two doses of a two dose vaccine. I mean shocker. Some people need to stick their bad advice up their own butts.

(Just to clarify. Not you lot here)

Although didn’t the initial data for all vaccines seem to show that most of the protection came with the first dose (75%+) and only a little (? 7% more or something) with the second, but the second lengthened the time it was effective for?

I was surprised when suddenly everyone was saying second dose was vital.

I think with the initial variant it was majority of protection after one dose. The second dose is clearly boosting antibodies quite significantly, and it seems like volume of antibodies matter most in preventing infection, with higher numbers for some variants (that have higher viral load?). Is it possible yet for researchers to work out the required antibody levels soon based on the extra data?

Some PHE data released at 11pm; still not schools data

twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1396244823728926721

This from Deepti Gurdasani on the spread in the report Piggy has linked:
"Looking at data on spike drop out (spike drop out is a feature of B.1.1.7 in some PCR tests. Almost 100% of samples without spike drop out are now B.1.617.2). These data are really worrying. They show the variant has possibly gained dominance in many regions - London, SE & NW"

It is shocking that the schools data has not been released.

@lonelyplanet

This from Deepti Gurdasani on the spread in the report Piggy has linked: "Looking at data on spike drop out (spike drop out is a feature of B.1.1.7 in some PCR tests. Almost 100% of samples without spike drop out are now B.1.617.2). These data are really worrying. They show the variant has possibly gained dominance in many regions - London, SE & NW"

Cases are still decreasing in London, albeit slower and there's been the tiny bump. Overall though, if it already has dominance then this is reassuring news. If there's too much spike from opening up then some things may need to change, but we can see that control of this variant is possible.

To be fair, Deepti Gurdasani thinks pretty much any new data on Covid is "really worrying". She has also been wrong quite a few times so her conclusions generally need to be taken with a healthy degree of skepticism (similarly to opinions of Carl Hegeghan on the other end of the spectrum).

I do not think anyone is debating that B.167.2 has either become (or is very close to becoming) dominant across the UK. The question is whether we can contain the spread through the combination of vaccines and other measures. Right now we are seeing conflicting trends in different local authorities. The London borough of Barking and Dagenham where B.167.2 appeared to have become dominant two weeks ago seems to be moving to the "zero Covid" nirvana (with the latest prevalence falling under 10/100,000) - at least, for now. It doesn't mean things might not change in the future but for now the trends are not consistent.

I genuinely don't understand which scientists on twitter to listen to.

Christina Pagel and Deepti Gurdasani all massively pessimistic

Francois Balloux much less so

Devi Sridhar seems cautiously optimistic

Can you think of a logical non pressure group related reason why the data on schools disappeared, though winter?

I also think this data does reveal why there are so many ads now , and FB posts form local leaders about getting the second jab. The conversation on MN, for example, on the wild west boards up until very recently was always ' you have had you [one] jab. Just crack on.'

I genuinely don't understand which scientists on twitter to listen to.

Which leaves us listening to SAGE and PHE who don't seem entirely immune from government interference.

It is an interesting lesson on how science is not neutral and objective - which vast swathes of people believe to be true. Pupils at school say they like science because it is right or wrong and no shades of grey. I read something a propos of a different debate recently where a science prof said science does not require you to have independence of thought until postgrad level (unlike other subjects which require this at secondary school was his point at the time)

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/23/ministers-failed-to-act-on-bedford-covid-variant-surge-for-two-weeks

I think this lines up with posts from here about why was nothing being done in Bedford

I follow a bit of a mix on Twitter, as I reckon that's the best way of keeping you open to different arguments. I tend to pay most attention to those who describe themselves as "Covid centerists" though - people who are prepared to post both reassuring posts and worrying ones depending on the data that as actually emerging, which does inevitably change day to day. I'm suspicious of those who only ever post in order to try to achieve a predetermined goal (either unlock now, or delay unlocking).

I'm not all that happy about this new data on effectiveness of the vaccines though. The press are all writing very positive headlines, but the new report appears to show that 1) A single dose is mostly ineffective against the Indian strain (only 33% protected), and even 2 doses leaves more people unprotected than previously. And 2) The AZ vaccine is significantly less effective than Pfizer. As someone with a single dose of AZ (and in the age group where most of my friends have had that too) I feel much less safe than I did.

MH thinks it is good for the opening on June 21

It doesn’t sound great to me but I suppose I’ll take any indication things won’t be stalled

Re: Covid twitter - I really like Francois Balloux but he is careful not to make specific predictions about short-term future.

I also follow a couple of mathematicians who are not personally invested into the Covid topic and focus on numbers rather than on more controversial and subjective topics:

twitter.com/JamesWard73
twitter.com/BristOliver

Re: Deepti Gurdasani - I think she has become so much absorbed into the Covid topic that she is refusing to see or consider any alternative views. I still follow her to keep up with the views of "zero Covid" crowd but I double check her data and her conclusions.

I'm not all that happy about this new data on effectiveness of the vaccines though

I'm way too sceptical of all of it, it's too timing focussed, those with two doses, got vaccinated longer ago, those with one dose got vaccinated more recently. Those with two doses are much older or less healthy, unlikely to have school age kids, move in different groups. Those with one dose are younger, have school children, work more etc.

The data isn't large enough to actually tease out these differences, there aren't enough cases, so it could be in all different directions, the risk reduction of the doses might be completely different, or as described elsewhere (indeed why longer dose strategy was chosen) is that time from first dose matters loads too.

Headlines taken from too small studies without error margins (or really understanding what was asked in the study) again.

Honestly Nutty the local leaders in Bedford were treated with almost contempt both locally and nationally when they expressed concerns. It can't not be political.

The story not being told here re AZ being less effective against IV is that virtually the whole of Bedford area is AZ.

twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1396220535735046149?s=19
I'm a bit concerned about the info in this tweet. It seems to show AZ is significantly less effective against IV after 2 doses compared with Pfizer which is not what is being reported in the press!

Ie AZ is 60% effective against IV after 2 doses. Are the press only reporting the combined data?

@EducatingArti

twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1396220535735046149?s=19 I'm a bit concerned about the info in this tweet. It seems to show AZ is significantly less effective against IV after 2 doses compared with Pfizer which is not what is being reported in the press!

Bbc is saying that the low % effectivity is likely to grow as it takes more time for AZ to work properly.

But is a bit worrying for people like my husband who have only had one jab of Az and only a week ago

@sirfredfredgeorge

I'm not all that happy about this new data on effectiveness of the vaccines though

I'm way too sceptical of all of it, it's too timing focussed, those with two doses, got vaccinated longer ago, those with one dose got vaccinated more recently. Those with two doses are much older or less healthy, unlikely to have school age kids, move in different groups. Those with one dose are younger, have school children, work more etc.

The data isn't large enough to actually tease out these differences, there aren't enough cases, so it could be in all different directions, the risk reduction of the doses might be completely different, or as described elsewhere (indeed why longer dose strategy was chosen) is that time from first dose matters loads too.

Headlines taken from too small studies without error margins (or really understanding what was asked in the study) again.

Those are good points. So maybe what we take away from the publication is the reduction in vaccine effecacy for the Indian strain, rather than the absolute effecacy, or any differences between vaccines? Which is still worring in terms of risk for those with one jab and opening up when lots have only had one jab. The push to accelerate second doses seems very sensible though. I'm still nervous of trying to move mine earlier because of needing to cancel it before you can see what other times are available. Seems a bit of a gamble!